Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 201907
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Very Hot and Humid Through Saturday...

The main focus in the short term is on the high heat and humidity
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis shows high pressure centered
over Tennessee with a surface boundary well north across the lower
Great Lakes. Satellite imagery shows the remnants of a morning MCS
spreading high level clouds across portions of the area, though this
hasn`t had too much of an effect on temperatures as readings have
easily climbed into the lower to middle 90s. Compared to yesterday,
dewpoints haven`t mixed out and are in the lower to middle 70s. This
is creating high heat indices in the 100 to 103 range, especially
for areas along and west of I-65.

The remainder of the evening will be hot and humid with temperatures
very slow to fall. Evening heat indices will remain in the upper 90s
to around 100. Overnight temperatures will be very warm, only
falling into the mid to upper 70s. Louisville metro may only briefly
drop below 80 for a couple of hours.

One of the hottest and most humid days of the summer so far is
expected tomorrow and again on Saturday. Overall, no large changes
in the forecast message as temperatures climb into the low to mid
90s. If dewpoints remain in the mid 70s, this will put the highest
afternoon heat indices in the 105 to 108 range for areas mainly
along and west of the I-65 corridor. In coordination with
surrounding offices, will add a few counties in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky to the Heat Advisory where max heat indices will
top out in the 105 to 108 range. Also, have decided to go ahead and
extend the advisory through Saturday evening (8 PM EDT) as
conditions are expected to remain just as hot/humid Saturday.

Additionally, some relief from the heat and humidity Friday may
come with pop-up showers or thunderstorms. Hi-res and other meso
models show diurnally driven convection by mid afternoon mainly
across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky where the ridge
is slightly weaker and there is a weaker cap. Will maintain the
20 to 30 percent chances across the area. Given the very strong
afternoon destabilization, some locally strong storms may be
possible across portions of southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky including the Bluegrass region. This is where the deep
layer shear is slightly higher. Gusty winds would be the main
threat.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Toward the end of the weekend and into early next week, the upper
ridge is expected to break down and shift its center back to the
west. This should lower thickness and 850 mb temperatures and allow
upper troughing to spread across the lower Great Lakes and lower
Ohio Valley.

A cold front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday bringing
scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Couldn`t rule out isolated stronger storms on Sunday, particularly
over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky where there is
slightly better deep layer shear (30 kts). Otherwise, storm
organization should be weak across south-central Kentucky.

Slightly cooler but much drier Canadian high pressure is then
expected to build into the region Tuesday and Wednesday providing a
couple of drier and less humid days.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Quiet aviation weather today, predominantly VFR with scattered-
broken high clouds. Expect clouds to decrease this evening with
perhaps a small chance at light, brief br at BWG/LEX tomorrow
morning. Westerly winds will remain under 7 kts today backing to the
SSW late tonight into tomorrow.  A chance for isld convection may
return to LEX/SDF tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Friday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Friday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

&&

$$

Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...AMS


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