Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
234 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Much quieter and cooler weather is in store to close out the
weekend. The rain has moved out this morning and wind gusts have
lessened. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s
this morning and are expected to continue to fall into the mid 30s.

For today, clouds are expected to remain in place through at least
mid day to early afternoon as low level moisture is trapped near the
surface. Thereafter, we should start to see some clearing from west
to east from mid afternoon into the early evening hours. Under the
cloud cover and northwesterly winds, temperatures will not move
much, topping out only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. In addition, a
weak mid level wave will move through this morning and could bring a
few flurries or sprinkles to portions of southern IN and the
northern Bluegrass this morning. Winds will not be anywhere near as
strong as yesterday, but will gust to 20-25 mph at times today.

Skies should become clear tonight with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 20s. High pressure will build across the southeastern CONUS
tonight and southerly return flow will set up across the lower Ohio
Valley by Monday morning. This will allow temps to climb back into
the upper 40s to lower 50s on Monday.


.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

The long term forecast features dry weather for the upcoming holiday
week, despite a couple of could fronts passing through. The first
front will move through on Tuesday night resulting in temperatures
10-12 degrees cooler on Wednesday than on Tuesday. The ECMWF had
brought some light precipitation into the northern Bluegrass with
this system in its run yesterday, but has now trended drier, more in
line with other models.

Thanksgiving morning will start out chilly with lows in the mid 20s,
but will warm up into the mid to upper 40s. Black Friday shoppers
will have temperatures starting out just below freezing with highs
topping out near 50.

The next cold front will swing through the area on Saturday. Models
had been bringing some light precipitation into the area with this
system. However, they have been trending drier over the last few
runs with guidance mostly dry now. Therefore, pops have been removed
from the Saturday/Saturday night time frame.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Moisture trapped under a low-level inversion will result in ceilings
prevailing around 2k` for much of the day before lifting and
breaking up late, followed by clear skies tonight. Winds will be
consistently out of the west in the 10-15kt range with gusts of 20-
25kt, lessening late this afternoon into tonight as high pressure
moves into the Tennessee Valley.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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