Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 170504
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Drier and less active weather into early next week.

* Unseasonably cold for the start of the week with freezing
  temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday morning.

* Above normal temperatures and precipitation chances return for the
  end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Satellite imagery and regional obs are showing mid-level clouds
streaming into the region ahead of the moisture-starved cold front,
which is essentially located stretching from St. Louis to Toledo.
This frontal boundary will continue to slide southeastward tonight,
and should be within the vicinity of the Ohio River by 06z or so.
Still expecting an increase in mid-level clouds, but a lack of
moisture keeps any mention of precip out of the forecast tonight.
We`ll see a notable wind shift with FROPA overnight, from the warmer
SW flow now to a cooler NW flow by tomorrow morning. Overall
forecast is in good shape, so no major changes planned this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Vertically stacked system just south of Hudson Bay will slowly work
southeast across southern Ontario and Quebec tonight into tomorrow.
Sfc cold front currently across the Upper Midwest will work across
the Ohio Valley tonight. Other than a few mid-level clouds, the
boundary will interact with mostly dry air near the sfc. Wind will
shift from the southwest and become more northwesterly overnight
into tomorrow morning. Winds will also be a bit breezy and brisk as
colder air filters in behind the boundary. There could be an hour or
two as the front passes with gusts of 15-20 mph. Even with colder
air advecting in, cloud cover and northwesterly winds around 10 mph,
temperatures will stay above freezing overnight with lows in the in
the upper 30s to near 40 across southern IN and low/mid 40s across
central and southern KY...

Cold air advection will continue to filter in as the upper trough
starts to deepen over the Great Lakes tomorrow. While it will remain
dry and mostly clear, highs will be around 10 degrees cooler than
today in the low/mid 50s across north central KY and southern IN
with mid/upper 50s in central and southern KY. Afternoon mixing
could help to increase wind gusts to between 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday Night - Thursday...

Interesting upper pattern as we head into the new work week. We`ll
see eastern CONUS troughing with anomalously low H5 heights over
eastern Canada through early week, before transitioning to dry NW
flow aloft by mid week. Out west, a classic Rex Block sets up
through early week, before breaking down mid week. This upper
pattern should lead to well below normal temps through the early
week time frame for our area, before a warming trend takes hold
through mid week. Overall, dry conditions are expected through
Thursday as the upper pattern will remain rather benign in our
region, and Canadian surface high pressure controls for much of the
time.

Sunday night looks chilly with lows mostly in the 25 to 30 degree
range. Monday night is expected to be the coldest as lows fall more
solidly into the mid 20s as a another dry (mostly) cold front drops
through the region. May see a few flurries given some moisture in
the 850-700 mb layer, but doesn`t look to be much more than that at
this point. Confidence remains high in sub-freezing temperatures
both nights, and although the growing season isn`t far enough along
to warrant headlines, some impacts to early active vegetation are
likely. Collaborations with ag partners will continue on when a good
time to start the growing season will be. Monday high temperatures
will also be notable as they only reach into the low to mid 40s.
This puts these values around 15 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Much better diurnal ranges return for Tuesday as highs
climb into the low and mid 50s from they chilly early start. We`re
back into the low and mid 60s for most by Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday Night - Saturday...

The closed low from the western CONUS Rex Block ejects out toward
our region through late week as an open wave, and may bring some
returning precipitation chances to our region by later Thursday or
Friday. However, confidence remains low given our dry air in place
and model uncertainty in the timing/strength/placement of the
disturbance as it approaches. Right now, have the highest pops late
Thursday night into Friday. Temps should be a bit cooler than
Thursday given expected increased cloud cover and possible
precipitation, however near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, with a dry
cold front pushing ESE across the region overnight. Look for light
WSW winds to shift to NW as early as 07-08Z for SDF, but 10Z or
later for BWG. SDF could get a mid-level cig for much of the morning
but LEX should remain SCT beneath a cirrus ceiling.

Winds will increase later in the morning under stronger cold
advection as well as stronger wind fields aloft. Expect a solid 12-
15 kt with prevailing gusts just over 20 kt during the afternoon.
Loss of daytime heating will bring an end to the gustiness around
00Z Monday, but we`ll hold on to a solid 8-10 kt from the NW as the
boundary layer will not decouple.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...RAS


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