Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 102351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
651 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

The band of light snow showers has begun to move into the
southwestern forecast area. The northern edge of the activity is
likely just virga or flurries at this point, but a heavier band has
moved into Logan and portions of Butler county. Model guidance
continues to depict this activity diminishing over the next few
hours and dissipating completely by 06Z. However, some light
accumulations will be possible prior to that with a few tenths of an
inch possible. Though widespread travel problems are not anticipated
at this time, a few slick spots will be possible on area roadways.
Grids have been updated to reflect the current radar trends, but no
big changes have been made.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Guidance calling for snows over eastern MO to graze our southwest
forecast area before they dissipate, as the upper-level system
generating them moves into increasingly drier air aloft. This
balancing act will mean a continued lower chance for measurable
liquid equivalent snowfall, though the dry nature of the snow will
mean a chance for up to a few tenths of an inch of new snowfall to
drop across south central Kentucky by daybreak Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Midwest the rest of the day
Thursday, bringing some sunshine to the region. Our southern zones
will take a little longer for the clouds to scatter out. After lows
in the teens tonight, maybe even single digits in our cold spots in
the northeast, we should get a little warmer for highs tomorrow
compared to today. Still our northeast may only see the mid 20s,
whereas south central KY should get into the lower 30s.

The high will shift east of the region Thursday night, with another
clipper system projected to be approaching the region by daybreak
Friday. Increasing clouds may lead to our lows being more in the
evening and then slowly increase or remain steady the rest
of the overnight.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Models are calling for that clipper system to have the most impact
on the northern half of our forecast area. However, the Euro came in
drier, instead shooting for our southeast forecast area to fire up
with some snow showers in the afternoon. Either way, this system
will not have much moisture to work with here, so totals should stay
under an inch. The Arctic high pressure behind this system will
bring temperatures back down after a "warm" day Friday in the 30s.
Expect highs Saturday to top out in the 20s, some 20 degrees below
normal for mid February. High pressure moving over the region
Saturday night should make for calm conditions and lows in the
single digits to low teens.

That high will shift to our east during the day Sunday, making way
for the next system to impact our area. The GFS/GEM each have a
quicker hitting system, with precip beginning Sunday night. The Euro
is coming in consistent with its previous run of a little later
onset followed by a wide deformation band moving across our area.
This solution would bring quite a bit of snow. To decide which way
to lean, looked at verification stats over the last 6 months for
most reliable pops and found the CONSAll and MOS as well as the GFS
have been the better ones to choose from. So will lean the forecast
that way for now. The consensus will include some info from the
Euro, so the trend will be snow-ier, though still way too early to
advertise totals.

Temperature forecasts will depend greatly on how far north the
associated surface low gets, but for now guidance seems a bit high.
Will go under guidance here as well as the next day, assuming we
have some snow cover on the ground. Models are trying to bring in a
sudden warmup after this Monday system, and think that snow cover
could slow it down a bit. As for precip, some guidance is keeping
light QPF in the northwest flow behind the Monday system.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

The main concern for the TAFs this forecast period will be the
chance for snow at BWG this evening. A band of snow is moving
towards the area, but will encounter direr air as it moves in. Most
of the guidance has this band mainly dissipating as it moves over
BWG, but some light snow is not out of the question at the terminal
before 04Z, so will include VCSH. This activity could also bring
ceilings down to MVFR for a time, though they will likely stay above
fuel alternate. Ceilings should improve by mid morning tomorrow.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at SDF and LEX through the
period. The westerly winds of 10+ knots will diminish this evening
and shift to northerly by Thursday morning.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
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