Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
645 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

A low pressure system currently residing over Minnesota will slowly
work its way off to the northeast through the short term period. The
cold front associated with this system should finally work its way
through the forecast area this afternoon to early evening, bringing
an end to the rain for at least a brief period.

Before that, however, showers and storms will continue today. Rain
has redeveloped along and west of I-65 this morning and some strikes
of lightning are showing up in this activity. Most of the high
resolution guidance shows this activity shifting to the east and out
of the area through mid morning. There then may be a brief lull in
precipitation before storms start to develop along the cold front
this afternoon. The best coverage of storms along the cold front
will be east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon. Soundings do show
CAPE climbing to around 1000 J/kg across east central KY this
afternoon. However, shear will be weak. So while a few strong storms
will be possible, numerous severe storms are not expected at this

Rain will come to an end this evening as the cold front pushes
through. High pressure will build in for Monday bringing drier
weather. Temperatures will be cooler today and Monday with the cold
front moving through. Lows will dip into the 50s tonight with highs
in the lower to mid 70s tomorrow.

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

The dry weather will be short lived as a trough digs into the upper
Midwest. Across the Ohio Valley we will be under southwesterly flow
aloft. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible on
Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, the better chance will come
Wednesday as an area of low pressure and a cold front swing through
the region. The upper level trough will swing through the lower Ohio
Valley through Thursday. Light showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will continue into Thursday as it does so.

High pressure will once again bring dry weather for Thursday night
into at least Friday morning. Thereafter, a shortwave moving through
the upper level flow will bring yet another chance for showers and
storms Friday evening into Saturday morning.

Temperatures this week will be much cooler than last week. This will
be especially true on Wednesday and Thursday with highs likely
staying in the 60s. We should then see a warm up into the weekend
with highs jumping back up into the 80s.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

On and off light rain showers will continue through this afternoon
ahead of a slowly approaching cold front.  There is a chance for
some t-storms late this morning to mid afternoon in convection so
did go ahead with VCTS.  Convection is expected to end this
afternoon after the cold front finally clears the area.

MVFR cigs below 2 kft are expected to form around or before sunrise
and continue through the morning hours before lifting this
afternoon.  Lower flight conditions will be possible in any
convection today.

Winds will veer from S this morning to W this afternoon behind the
cold front.  Wind speeds will generally be between 6-12 kts
throughout the TAF period with higher gusts possible in convection.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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