Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
123 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Main slug of light rain has shifted east of the region. Still cannot
rule out a light shower in the east to early afternoon, but after
that the chance for measureable rain drops off. It will be a chilly
day under northwest winds gusting to 20 mph. We should see highs in
the mid to upper 50s, not far from where they are now. Sent out a
zone update to trim some of the western and central counties from
further rain chances today.

.Short Term (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Early this morning some very light isld-sct showers were present in
the base of the upper trough pushing through the Ohio Valley region.
Expect these showers to slowly move eastward and finally exit the
area by mid morning.  Mostly cloudy conditions look to remain
through much of the day although locations west of I-65 will start
to see some sunshine by the afternoon hours as the low cloud deck
begins to diminish.  NW Winds will remain a bit gusty throughout the
day with gusts to around 20 mph. With mostly cloudy skies and strong
CAA throughout the day, high temperatures should be limited to the
mid to upper 50s.

Tonight expect skies to clear from west to east with NW winds
becoming lesser (3-5 kts).  Sfc high pressure will remain centered
to our southwest.  Expect low temps to drop into the 37-41 degree
range.  Sheltered locations that drop into the mid 30s with very
light winds may see some patchy frost formation Sat morning.  Will
continue to include patchy frost mention in the forecast but did
scale the area back some based on a combo of updated min temps and

For Saturday, expect a cool but mostly sunny day with highs topping
out in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Sunday - Tuesday...

By Sunday, we`ll see some moderation in our cool airmass as winds
turn back to the southwest in return flow.  This will allow our high
temps to warm back into the upper 60s/lower 70s under mostly sunny

Sun night, a dry cold front will push through the region bringing
another weak shot of cool air which will bring high temps back into
the mid 60s to around 70 both Mon/Tue.  Low temps will remain mainly
in the 40s Sun-Tue with some upper 30s possible Tue morning.

Wednesday - Thursday...

A potent upper level shortwave looks to move east through the
Midwest Wed night/Thu.  Although it`s cold front looks pretty
moisture starved, will include a 20% POP Wed night/Thur especially
over S. Indiana for rain showers.

Again some small temp fluctuations for mid week from low 70s on Wed
ahead of the front to 60s on Thu behind the front.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Cold advection continues across the region.  Lapse rates have
steepened quite a bit this afternoon and a pronounced stratocumulus
deck has developed.  We expect high end MVFR to low end VFR ceilings
to prevail this afternoon with ceilings running between FL025-035
AGL.  Gusty northwest winds will be likely with sustained speeds of
8-11kts and occasional gusts up to 20kts at times.

For this evening, ceilings should start to lift as moisture starts
to deplete.  A broken ceiling around FL035-050 AGL will likely be
seen through at least 22/06Z and then we should start to see skies
scour out toward morning.  Surface winds overnight will remain light
out of the northwest at KSDF and KBWG...but will likely stay up
around 6-8kts over at KLEX.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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