Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 041632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST FRI JUL 04 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES AS CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
RIM AND INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. IN ADDITION...EXTENSIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD ALSO PERSIST IN THIS AREA...WITH A WEAK MCV NOTED IN
THE PHX AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY HAMPER CONVECTION IN THOSE
AREAS...IF NOT PREVENT IT COMPLETELY TODAY. ALONG THE RIM AND POINTS
NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANOTHER STORY. A SUNNIER START IN THESE
LOCATIONS...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES AND HIGH PW VALUES
WILL MAKE FOR ACTIVE DAY. STEERING FLOW FAVORS INITIATION EAST OF
FLAGSTAFF...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO THE LCR AND PUSHING WESTWARD
OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU LATER IN THE DAY. OUR POPS MAY NEED SOME
MINOR TWEAKING TO REFLECT THIS...BUT THE HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK
GOOD. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVE
AGAIN BY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REHEATS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH
ISOLD +TSRA CAUSING MVFR VSBY. ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS
IN THE VCNTY OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER AFTER 03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE ARIZONA WITH A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......BAK
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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