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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 131655
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON DRY AND
GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON DRY AND GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA. WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE FORECAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A MUCH DEEP AND STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH POSSIBLY THE
STRONGEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE REACHED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW FUELS DRY OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS ON THURSDAY IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH AND THEN ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE DISTRICT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE...WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY WILL LOCALLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..............TC
AVIATION............AT/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER........PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF