Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230500
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD
ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA.
AN ACTIVE AND WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO BRING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREATS NEAR STORMS WILL INCLUDE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL...PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER DRYING TREND AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES SOUTH AND CUTS OFF OUR TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
STARTING POINT ON THIS DRYING TREND MAY SLIP BY A DAY OR TWO.
THEREFORE EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.