Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231629

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to slowly trend downward into next week.
The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase
again over the weekend and into next week mainly for Apache and
southern Navajo counties. Gusty winds will likely develop Tuesday
and Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...The near surface winds shifted from the west to the
northwest overnight. This brought smoke from the Boundary Fire into
the Flagstaff area this morning. Updated grids to include smoke in
the area this morning. No other updates needed.


. PREV DISCUSSION /321 AM MST/...High pressure remains the dominant
weather feature over the desert southwest for the foreseeable
future. This will lead to continued above normal temperatures across
northern Arizona. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lowest
elevations of northern Arizona remains in effect through Sunday
evening. However, temperatures will begin to slowly trend cooler
into next week. While thunderstorm chances are low today, moisture
will begin to creep back into Apache and southern Navajo counties
this weekend and next week. This will reintroduce the chance for
high- based showers and thunderstorms across that area.

Latest model guidance suggests there is an increasing potential
for a period of gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time,
it appears wind gusts could approach the advisory criteria of 40
mph and critical fire weather thresholds may be met.

There continues to be no indication of significant monsoon
moisture making it into the region next week, but this will
continued to be monitored over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected for the 24 hour forecast period. Smoke from area
wildfires may bring MVFR conditions to flight paths and airfields
through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and generally dry conditions will continue
through Saturday. Max temperatures to remain around 10 degrees
above normal. Mid level moisture seeping into the White Mountains
area Saturday afternoon will bring a slight chance of high-based

Sunday through Tuesday...Despite a small cooling trend, above normal
temperatures will continue. Increasing mid-level moisture will bring
a modest increase in high-based shower and thunderstorm coverage to
the eastern and central zones. The best chance remains over the
White Mountains. Gusty southwest winds may bring critical fire
weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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