Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 PM MST Mon Mar 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow aloft will deliver warm daytime
temperatures and breezy afternoon winds today. On Tuesday...a
cooling trend will begin as a storm system approaches Arizona
leading to even cooler temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday
along with good chance of showers. Dry conditions are forecast
Friday and most of Saturday with another low pressure system
possibly affecting the region Saturday night into Sunday.


Warm and dry conditions will continue across the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the area
today as a weak weather disturbance stays mainly north of the
forecast area. The warm conditions will begin to transition to a
cooler wetter pattern Tuesday as low pressure system begins to
assert its influence over the region. Winds will once again become
gusty out of the southwest Tuesday afternoon as peak heating mixes
angular momentum down to the surface. Winds will decrease back to
near calm conditions Tuesday night after sunset.

A low pressure system will rotate into the California coast
Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase over western Coconino
and Yavapai counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, then shift
east into Gila/Navajo/and Apache counties early Thursday morning.
Snow levels will start out in the 8000-9000 ft. range late Wednesday
night, then fall to around 6500 feet after sunrise Thursday as the
trough axis pivots into Arizona. The best chances for snow
accumulation will be Thursday morning along the Mogollon Rim. Snow
accumulations should remain around an inch or less. Total liquid
precipitation accumulations should be three-quarters of an inch
or less.

Precipitation chances will taper off from west to east late Thursday
afternoon and night. By Friday, short wave ridging will lead to
mostly sunny skies and temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.

A progressive pattern will continue through the weekend into early
next week with precipitation chances returning to the forecast
Saturday night and again Monday.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package..VFR conditions will persist
throughout the next 24 hours. Cumulus clouds will continue through
the afternoon hours with most locations seeing a decrease in cloud
cover and wind speeds after sunset. Winds should stay light in the
overnight hours with an increase in speed and gusty conditions
returning after 17z at most locations. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments. &&





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