Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240342
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
842 PM MST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING
CONTINUED WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER STRONG WIND EPISODE ON MONDAY. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEAKENING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO AZ. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /337 PM MST/... SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT NOTABLE WIND
EVENT VISITS US ON MONDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE, WHICH TRANSLATES TO A LARGE AREA OF
97TH PERCENTILE WIND SPEEDS OVER EASTERN AZ RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE APRIL. FOR NOW, HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS
LOOK LIKELY WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING NOT BEING OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A FEW 50 KT 700 MB WINDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE 12Z GFS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.

THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK
OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXPECT A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL PLENTY OF SPREAD
EXISTS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODEL FORECASTS, THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATES PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING RIGHT ON INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH OVER 0.25" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CAUSE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL PRODUCE
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST UNDER A BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS MONDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. BREEZY TUESDAY THEN DECREASING WIND ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/AT
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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