Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 AM MST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, above normal temperatures and breezy
conditions will continue across northern Arizona through Tuesday.
A dry cold front is expected to pass through northern Arizona
causing a slight dip in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast late next week
and into the following weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A broad long wave trough across the west with
migratory short waves passing well north of Arizona will keep us
in a dry and breezy weather pattern through Tuesday. On Tuesday
night a weak cold front moves into the northern half of Arizona
with slightly cooler temperatures in the forecast. On Wednesday
and Thursday, winds will become northeasterly as a high pressure
ridge moves in across the west. Expect a slight warming trend from
Friday to Saturday. No sign of precipitation in the foreseeable


.PREV DISCUSSION /508 AM MST/...For today, zonal flow at the base
of a broad trough over the western United States will cause dry
weather, above normal temperatures and windy conditions. Winds are
forecast to increase by late morning, with gusts into the 30 to 40
mph range likely along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Deterministic model solutions indicate that 700 mb wind speeds may
exceed 50 knots by early Monday morning. As a result, strong winds
are expected to continue, and possibly strengthen, at locations
immediately to the northeast of higher terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow continues across northern
Arizona leading to a continuation of breezy west winds and dry
conditions. Beginning late Tuesday, a dry cold front is forecast
to sweep across northern Arizona causing a slight dip in
temperatures and breezy northeast winds on Wednesday and Thursday.
A strong ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest late next
week and into the following weekend. This will bring temperatures
above normal once again.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast package...VFR conditions through
the forecast period. Breezy southwest winds are expected with
stronger winds along the northeastern slopes of the higher
terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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