Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270459
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOWS RESULTING IN A
DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING NEAR THE LARGER
COMMUNITIES OF FLAGSTAFF...PRESCOTT...SHOW LOW AND PAYSON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN ARIZONA STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN. ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AND TROUGH COUPLET
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

BY TUESDAY...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY
OF DECENT STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...LOWER GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE
TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY 06Z.
IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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