Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 140357
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS HEADING EASTWARD WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD AND MOIST STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AND SIT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY...A MOIST SURFACE LAYER WILL
COMBINE WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION ALOFT TO FORM AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. FOG
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE INVERSION ALOFT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS FORECASTS DO AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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