Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and breezy weather today, though a slight
chance of storms will linger near the White Mountains. Dry
weather will persist through Friday, with a chance of storms
gradually returning for the weekend.


.UPDATE...Sent a minor update tracking the area of thick clouds
moving through the region associated with the upper level trough.
Still expected breezy winds to develop through the day, with the
clouds gradually shifting east of the area later this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /403 AM MST/...An upper level trough settling
over the Great basin today will bring mid and high level cloud
cover to areas along and north of the Mogollon rim, as well as
gusty southwest winds of 15-30 mph. We have seen strong low level
drying across much of the area, surface dew points are in the
teens in the Page and Kaibab Plateau areas this morning. Kept the
slight chance of afternoon storms going around the White
mountains for today. Fair weather for all from Wednesday through
Friday night. The trough will keep daytime temperatures a few
degrees below normal, with overnight lows several degrees below
normal due to the dry air mass.

Models suggest a more favorable flow pattern for moisture return
developing this weekend, as high pressure becomes centered east
of the state. We continue to advertise a slow increase in
thunderstorm chances for the weekend but confidence remains low at
this point.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package... VFR conditions across northern
Arizona with predominantly southwest winds. Wind gusts of 20 to 30
KTS are likely until early evening. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. The only exception being a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday over the eastern White Mountains. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall considerably from what has been
seen the last few days.

Thursday through Saturday... Dry conditions continue through much of
this period, with lighter winds. Some moisture returns by Saturday,
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern






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