Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310742
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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