Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 140326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
826 PM MST Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with lighter winds and above normal
temperatures are expected for the weekend into much of next week.


.UPDATE...Clear skies and diminishing winds over northern Arizona
this evening. A weak backdoor cold front is still on track to
shift winds to the north by Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be
5-10 degrees cooler for the northern third of the state, including
the Page area, with little to no change along/south of the
Mogollon Rim. No forecast updates needed this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /316 PM MST/...High pressure will gradually
build into the Desert Southwest over the weekend and early next
week, with weakening daytime winds and continued dry and warm
conditions. Far northern AZ will see a bit of a cool-down over the
weekend, but daytime temps should still remain near to slightly
above normal even there.

Unsettled conditions under weakening high pressure may return by
the end of next week, but there is not much in terms of model
consensus to be terribly confident with that just yet - something
to watch in the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
through the next 24 hrs. Light wind overnight will gradually shift
to the N-NE at 10-15 kts on Saturday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will shift to north to northeast on Saturday
with minimum humidity dropping into the single digits to low teens
range. Above average daytime temperatures and very dry conditions
continue Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...The dry and warm weather pattern will
persist next week with generally light winds.






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