Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 052208
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SAT JUL 05 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
COUPLED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS MADE FOR A COMPLEX
DAY...IN TERMS OF GUESSING WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AND
PERSIST. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED...HOWEVER...JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF FORCING CAN KICK OFF DECENT STORMS...AS SEEN NORTH OF
WINDOW ROCK AND IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE CAPPING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AND AS MORE AND MORE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...LATE DAY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEREFORE...THE POPS
THAT HAVE LOOKED A LITTLE HIGH MOST OF THE DAY MAY PAN OUT IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS NOT AS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WAS
SEEN LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT
SOME OF THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY PERSIST AS OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN
PW. STEERING FLOW REVERSES ONCE AGAIN...BUT IT IS WEAK EITHER WAY.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION COMPARED TO TODAY. CAPPING GOES AWAY
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SO CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN. THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WET...WITH MANY DAYS OF MODERATE TO HIGH GRADE
MONSOON ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACTIVITY DECREASING AFT 03-05Z WITH ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
WITH THESE STORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE WITH A MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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