Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
901 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday. Some light
precipitation is possible from the Mogollon Rim northward late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. A pattern change to cooler and
wetter weather will be possible by the end of the week.


.UPDATE...Dry weather will continue overnight with somewhat above
normal low temperatures. Sent a minor update to increase cloud
cover later tonight through the middle of Monday. Rest of forecast
on track, no further updates expected this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...The first half of the week will be
characterized by periods of mid and upper level clouds along with
continued above normal temperatures. A weak shortwave will
briefly push through the ridge and cross northern Arizona late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring a chance of light rain
shower activity to the region. Snow levels will generally stay
between 7500-8000 feet with this system. Across northeast Arizona
snow levels could fall below 7000 feet for a brief period of time
as the core of mid level cooler air passes overhead late Tuesday
night and early Wednesday. Dry weather returns behind this system
later Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge reestablishes itself
over the area.

Latest model guidance continues to indicate a more potent trough
affecting northern Arizona Friday into Saturday. This would result
in gusty southwesterly winds Friday, quickly falling
temperatures/snow levels, and increasing precipitation chances.
While its still early to be confident on the details, the bottom
line is an increased chance for hazardous winter weather by late
week. Stay tuned over the coming days especially if you have
travel plans across northern Arizona later in the week.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Light winds and VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Expect increasing mid-to-upper level
cloudiness tonight through Monday. Aviation discussion not updated
for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably strong high pressure will lead to warm
daytime temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions through
Monday. Winds will be generally light for most locations. A weak low
pressure trough will brush the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night
with a slight chance of light precipitation, though above normal
temperatures will persist.

Wednesday through Friday... Dry weather and continued above normal
temperatures are anticipated for late Wednesday through Thursday. A
cold trough may impact the fire district by Friday with gusty winds,
chances for showers, and a drop in temperatures.






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