Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220949
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY BUT AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER CONDITIONS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF A SECONDARY WEATHER DISTURBANCE PLUNGING SOUTHWARD WAS
CENTERED OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE RESULTING UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SINKING AIR
OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWARD
FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH. LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
55 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SO LOOK FOR A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUNDLE-UP THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...WHERE WIND CHILLS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...BRRRRRRR.

FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIR
MASS RAPIDLY MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LOOK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT MUCH LIGHTER. MEANWHILE, A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE BAJA LOW WILL TAP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEFORE HEADING NORTHWARD. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A VARIETY
OF STORM PATHS. THE GFS IS WET FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODEL MOVES THE LOW FURTHER WEST AND KEEPS
ARIZONA OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. IN
ANY EVENT A MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. WE HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS PROBABLY WON`T CONVERGE
ON A SOLUTION UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER VCNTY WHITE MTNS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

NORTHEAST SFC WINDS 15-30KT GUSTS TO 35+KT TO PERSIST TIL 00Z
FRIDAY ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES AND INCLUDING
THE KFLG TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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