Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS THAT ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS AND SMOKE VENTILATION FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY -
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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