Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 182219

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
319 PM MST Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasing clouds today with a few light
showers possible through Thursday. In addition, expect
increasingly breezy winds and a decreasing trend in temperatures
into the weekend. A return to warm and dry conditions will develop
later in the weekend lasting into next week.


.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough nearing Las Vegas will move
slowly across northern Arizona over the next 24 hours spreading
clouds across the area. Expect an increasing chance for light
shower development tonight through Thursday, though coverage will
remain scattered at best. Any precipitation amounts are expected
to remain less than a tenth of an inch.

By Thursday afternoon, southwest winds will be on the increase and
limited instability will result in a few thunderstorms primarily
across eastern Arizona. On Friday, a cold front moving through the
Great Basin will support even stronger southwest winds gusting 30
to 40 MPH. The chance for any showers will come to an end late
Thursday night with drier weather expected Friday through the
weekend. Temperatures will trend downward each day. Saturday will
be the "coolest" day with high temperatures near average.

We still have high confidence in strong high pressure building
over the western U.S. Sunday through at least the first half of
next week resulting in dry weather and climbing temperatures


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hrs. Clouds will increase from west to east this
evening, with ceilings mostly at or above 15kft AGL. Widely
scattered light rain showers possible west of a KPGA-KPAN line
through 09Z, spreading to the New Mexico state line after 09Z and
into Thursday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible after
18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds
and a chance of rain showers tonight through Thursday. A few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon. Wetting rain is
unlikely for most locations. Southwest winds will increase Thursday
and even more on Friday as a cold front moves through the Great

Saturday through Monday...Drier and cooler air arrives Saturday,
along with a wind switch to a more northerly direction, lasting
through Monday. A return to well above normal temperatures and very
dry surface conditions is expected starting Sunday.






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