Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142212
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM ISSUE IS FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST
AZ TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCT-BKN STRATUS
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. THIS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
TRAPPED BY A LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS BASES SHOULD
LOWER OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST AZ AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE 12Z PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST
STATES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...PROGS NOW SHOW THAT A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY WITH A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500
FEET WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPFS DO VARY THOUGH WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
WITH THE GFS BEING 2 TO 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. WE HAVE
BLENDED THE MODEL OUTPUT FOR NOW WHICH HAS LESS THAN 0.20 INCH
ANYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE
PRIME TIMES FOR STEADY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKING SUNNY AND DRY. PROGS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL
OF A ANOTHER LOW UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM
THE NORTH AND NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE MID WEEK EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INCLUDING KINW AFT 06Z MON AND LAST THROUGH 18Z. ELSEWHERE CIRRUS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SFC WINDS.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












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