Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 140409

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
909 PM MST Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, with flash flooding and lightning being the
primary threats. Much drier air will bring a decreasing trend in
storm coverage by Monday, with isolated or no storms from Tuesday
through the remainder of the week.


.UPDATE...Concur with the previous discussion. Westerly flow
will continue pushing the moisture out of the area leaving clear
skies and cool temperatures over night. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Monday after 1100 AM mostly in the White
Mountains with few forming along the Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff.
Dry breeze weather this week with the strongest southwesterly
winds Tuesday afternoon as the longwave trough passes to the


.PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/...Scattered thunderstorms moved
northeastward across northern Arizona this afternoon. Storms will
decrease this evening.

A strong trough of low pressure is moving across the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon. This trough will move southeastward
toward Arizona on Monday and increase southwest flow over the
state. This will push monsoon moisture away from the area with a
significant decrease in thunderstorm activity. Wind gusts in
excess of 30 MPH are possible Monday afternoon on the Coconino
and Kaibab Plateaus.

The trough of low pressure will move across northern Arizona on
Tuesday with breezy to windy conditions. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms will best. Seasonable temperatures and
afternoon southwest breezes are expected after Wednesday.

Moisture begins to slowly by late Friday and over next weekend
with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue into the night with storms mostly concentrated along
the Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains. Localized MVFR/IFR
conditions expected in the stronger storms. Storm coverage and
intensity continues to diminish and should end or move out of the
area by 09Z. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop again
after 18Z Monday, mostly in the White Mountains with few forming
along the Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A decreasing trend in storm coverage is
expected beginning Monday, with only a slight chance for showers in
the White Mountains by Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds are also
expected for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with generally light winds
are anticipated.






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