Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
336 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered thunderstorms each day through
Saturday, along with cooler than normal daytime temperatures. A
drying and warming trend is expected late in the weekend and into
early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared over most of Coconino and Yavapai
counties at 3 AM with scattered mid clouds lingering over eastern
Arizona. Low and mid level flow will turn more from the south and
southwest today and this will bring a slight increase in moisture
to areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim, with values south of the
rim about where they were yesterday. A weak disturbance will move
eastward along the AZ/UT border later this afternoon and
overnight, providing some lift as well as keeping mid-level
temperatures colder than normal (which increases instability). The
day should start out sunny for much of the area also. These
factors point to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening, with the best chances from the Mogollon Rim
northward. Convection could continue well into the evening and
even overnight, especially the northern third of the state. Still
expect some isolated storms for Gila/Yavapai county but the
steering flow is not as favorable to bring storms into this area
as it was yesterday. Deep layer wind shear is on the weak side
most of the day, increasing a bit this evening, so an isolated
strong storm is possible with hail and gusty winds the main

Chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues
Friday and Saturday, then a decrease in moisture and warmer
temperatures is expected Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region. A few isolated storms are still possible,
mainly for higher terrain areas in eastern AZ. The flow could
become more favorable for increasing moisture and storms again by
mid week.

.AVIATION...For the 12z package...VFR conditions through 18z. After
18Z, scattered showers and thunderstorms to form first over higher
terrain, with storm motions to the northeast and into lower terrain
areas. MVFR visibilities and erratic winds gusts to 30 knots
possible with the stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.






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