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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190954
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS YET ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHED. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY COOLISH WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

ON TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT WESTERLIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A LARGE PACIFIC LOW SETTLING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER A
DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE SPRING
WIND MACHINE WILL RETURN WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
EACH DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DELIVER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
COULD BE EXCEEDED ANY AFTERNOON STARTING WEDNESDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A PAGE - WINSLOW -
ST. JOHNS LINE THIS MORNING. AFT 18Z...BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 14 KFT MSL REDEVELOPING EAST OF A KAYENTA TO WINDOW ROCK LINE
WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ARIZONA REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY WINDS ALOFT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN AZ. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF