Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
351 AM MST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRY AND WARM AIR INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STAYING
PREDOMINATELY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH A LEAST THIS WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT A STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
CAN NOT GET ESTABLISHED SUFFICIENTLY.

THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES SO THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHIFT IN THE MOIST FLOW ON
FRIDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS SOUTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY.

BY SUNDAY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT
FARTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING BACK A MORE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
19-01Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM KSOW-KRQE EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED OVER
ARIZONA AND WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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