Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS AREA.
STARTING SATURDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. STARTING TUESDAY...A EXPECTED SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW H5 WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THUS THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK THROUGH PAYSON.
ELSEWHERE FAIR WX TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WILL PROBABLY LOWER STORM CHANCES ALONG THE
AZ/UT BORDER SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 337 AM...TUESDAY ONWARD...TROPICAL STORM ODILLE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWEST TRACKING WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA COASTLINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
INITIATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD
BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. NAIFS PRECIPITABLE WATER
FORECAST RANGES FROM 1.25 INCHES OF PWAT IN SOUTHEAST YAVAPAI
COUNTY TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS REPRESENTS
PWATS GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT WDLY SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KRQE-KPAN LINE...ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AFT
01Z SATURDAY.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL /RR
AVIATION.......DL /TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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