Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
844 PM MST Thu Apr 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions to continue through the
weekend. High pressure will bring lighter winds and warmer days
through Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will return Sunday
through Tuesday as two more troughs brush Arizona.


.UPDATE...Winds are decreasing this evening as a low pressure
trough moves further east into the Rocky Mountains. Expect locally
breezy westerly winds this evening, turning to the north
overnight. Current forecast is in good shape with no updates


Discussion...A tough of low pressure is moving across the Great
Basin and northern Arizona this afternoon with breezy to windy
conditions. Winds will subside this evening after dark as the
trough moves east, convective mixing cuts off, and nocturnal
boundary layers becomes established.

A ridge of high pressure will build over Arizona Friday and
Saturday with warm temperatures, clear skies, and light winds.

Another trough of low pressure will move into the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies on Sunday with breezy to windy conditions across
northern Arizona.

A west to northwesterly flow will remain over Arizona on Monday
and Tuesday with breezy afternoon conditions.

Models are suggesting that a stronger trough of low pressure will
drop far enough south to bring chances of showers to northern
Arizona next Wednesday and Thursday. This system may also drop
high temperatures around 10 near average.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Westerly winds to shift to the north after
midnight and remain generally 10-15 kts or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system causing gusty winds today
will shift east of the area Friday. Winds will shift to more
northerly and weaken behind the system Friday. Well above normal
temperatures, low humidity and light winds are forecast Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions continue, but weak
disturbances passing north of the area will cause breezy southwest
winds. The strongest winds are currently expected Sunday when
critical fire weather conditions are possible north of the Mogollon






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