Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
430 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through much of the week. Some light
precipitation is possible from the Mogollon Rim northward late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A pattern change to cooler and wetter
weather will be possible by the end of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Expect a fairly high amplitude ridge over the area
today, bringing well above normal temperatures to much of the area.
Temperatures at the lower elevations will be tempered somewhat by
persistent inversions.

This ridge will partially break down later Monday and Tuesday as a
weak s/wv moves through the Great Basin. This wave will split and
bring some cooler mid-level air into Arizona Tuesday night and
Wednesday, which could lead to some light rain showers.

The ridge rebounds again Thursday, before breaking down and giving
way to a fast-moving and cold trough by late Friday and Saturday.
This system at the end of the week is now consistently forecast to
produce some light to moderate rain/snow shower activity and sharply
colder temperatures, the grids have been adjusted further in this


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Light winds and VFR conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours. High clouds (BKN200-250)will
increase through 00Z and then mid level clouds (SCT-BKN150) will
increase after 00Z. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably strong high pressure will lead to warm
daytime temperatures and dry conditions through Monday. Winds will
be generally light for most locations.

Tuesday through Thursday...A weak low pressure trough will brush the
state late Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing a chance of light
precipitation, normal temperatures will persist. Dry weather is
anticipated again for Thursday.






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