Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
932 AM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA HAS MOVED INTO SRN UTAH. WE
ARE LEFT WITH WELL ABOVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE THE FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 436 AM...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING IS LOCATED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARIZONA HELPING TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY. WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING OVER THE REGION TODAY WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
LEVELS. SLIGHT DRYING DEVELOPS THURSDAY NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF WITH
LOWERING STORM CHANCES. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE, MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. KEPT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WHITE MTNS AND VICINITY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20KTS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS...AS WELL AS ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER 07Z.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL / JJ
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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