Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warm temperatures and dry conditions through
Tuesday with just a few higher level clouds sneaking across
northern Arizona. For Wednesday and Thursday a weak weather
disturbance will combine with increased moisture for partly to
mostly cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles over the higher
terrain. Another passing disturbance will produce breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure will build over Arizona through
Tuesday continuing the warm and dry weather stretch. Afternoon
high temperatures will be around 10 degrees above mid October
averages. Generally light winds are also expected.

By Wednesday, a more moist westerly flow develops spreading clouds
and perhaps a few light showers across northern Arizona. The
increased clouds and possibility of a few light showers will
continue into Thursday, when there may be enough instability for a
few thunderstorms across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds begin to
increase Thursday afternoon and even more so on Friday while a
trough is forecast to move through the Great Basin. Winds will
shift to the north Saturday while the trough heads east. Expect
closer to average temperatures Friday and Saturday, increasing
again by early next week.

Forecast models in the extended range are in good agreement
building a ridge over the region through at least the first part
of next week resulting in continued warm and dry weather.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Over the next 24 hrs, expect VFR
conditions under a few high clouds and winds generally less than
10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm weather with light winds will persist
through Tuesday. Expect poor smoke ventilation during the
overnight hours, generally increasing to fair for a few hours in
the afternoon. By Wednesday, look for increasing cloud cover and a
slight chance of light showers.

Thursday through Saturday...Increased clouds and a slight chance
for a shower or thunderstorm will continue Thursday while breezy
southwest winds develop. Southwest winds increase on Friday and
then shift to the north on Saturday.






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