Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150417
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
916 PM MST THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THEN...BEGINNING
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ONE
CLUSTER NW OF WINSLOW...SOUTH OF SHOW LOW...AND NW OF WINDOW ROCK.
THE CHC`S OF PRECIP WERE LOWERED EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THROUGH 06Z.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...CHINO VALLEY...NORTH SIDE OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...SHUMWAY AREA...AND 10-16 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHOW LOW. SEVERAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED AS A RESULT OF THESE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
SOME STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED. IF YOU SAW OR EXPERIENCED
FLOODING...GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGZ...ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE
WEB PAGE UNDER CURRENT HAZARDS GO DOWN TO SUBMIT A REPORT...AND
REPORT FLOODING OR ANY OTHER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...LARGE
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /400 PM MST/...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NW
COCONINO AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO INCREASED CAPE VALUES (INSTABILITY) AND
ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH HAIL IN A FEW STORMS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT...WITH MODERATE JET-LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE STATE LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU 08Z FROM KFLG TO KSOW TO KRQE. WDLY
SCT TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRIDAY ALONG THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND UP INTO THE
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA. STORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....TC/JJ
AVIATION...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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