Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
508 AM MST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, above normal temperatures and breezy
conditions will continue across northern Arizona through Tuesday.
A dry cold front is expected to pass through northern Arizona
causing a slight dip in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast late next week
and into the following weekend.


.DISCUSSION...For today, zonal flow at the base of a broad trough
over the western United States will cause dry weather, above
normal temperatures and windy conditions. Winds are forecast to
increase by late morning, with gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range
likely along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Deterministic model
solutions indicate that 700 mb wind speeds may exceed 50 knots by
early Monday morning. As a result, strong winds are expected to
continue, and possibly strengthen, at locations immediately to
the northeast of higher terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow continues across northern
Arizona leading to a continuation of breezy west winds and dry
conditions. Beginning late Tuesday, a dry cold front is forecast
to sweep across northern Arizona causing a slight dip in
temperatures and breezy northeast winds on Wednesday and
Thursday. A strong ridge is forecast to build over the Southwest
late next week and into the following weekend. This will bring
temperatures above normal once again.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Sfc winds sw15-25kts with gusts 30-35kts in
typically favored locations from 17z-01z today. Breezy conditions
will then continue tonight, mainly across areas northeast of higher
terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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