Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50
TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.