Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 061042
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
342 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...MAY DELAY STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING WEEK.
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK LOOKS WET WITH MANY DAYS OF MODERATE TO HIGH GRADE
MONSOON ACTIVITY...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF OVERALL COVERAGE. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH ERRATIC AND QUITE
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /1013 PM MST/...
MODELS FORECAST INCREASED LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATING SHORT WAVE AND..IN
FACT...CONVECTION PERSISTS EVEN THOUGH IT HAS DECREASED IN OVERALL
INTENSITY. IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...
FINALLY WRAPPING UP BY AROUND SUNRISE. POP/WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WDSPRD SC/CU WITH ISOLD TCU/CB
THROUGH 15Z-17Z WITH BASES FROM 7-10KFT AGL. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WILL BE FOUND GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. AFT 15Z-17Z...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH
ISOLD +TSRA THROUGH 01Z-03Z MONDAY. PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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