Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 AM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect decreasing thunderstorms activity today as
much drier air moves into Arizona. Isolated or no storms are
forecast from Tuesday through Friday. Breezy southwest winds are
on tap for today and Tuesday.


Today is a transition day to dry weather across northern Arizona.
The large scale pattern this morning has a trough of low pressure
moving deepening over the Pacific Northwest, with west southwest
flow aloft over AZ. There is a jet speed max at 200mb over central
AZ now and this has helped develop a few tstorms south of the
Mogollon Rim early this morning. Sfc Dew points in the 30s are
noted along the Colorado River, a sign of the drier air that will
be moving eastward today. So for today we expect less storm
coverage than the weekend, with scattered afternoon storms around
the White Mountains and isolated coverage elsewhere. Breezy
southwest winds are anticipated this afternoon.

From Tonight through Friday, a drier and stable airmass will
cover northern Arizona with west southwest flow aloft continuing.
While no showers and tstorms are forecast after this evening, there
could be a decent amount of mid level cloud cover tonight
as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin. Min temps
the next few mornings should be around 4 degrees below average for
the date.

For the weekend, monsoon moisture and instability may return to
eastern Arizona Saturday and spread northwestward Sunday. We keep
the slight chance of storms going for now.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Scattered thunderstorms will
develop again after 18z in the White Mountains with few forming
along the Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions
expected in the stronger storms. Storm coverage and intensity will
diminish after 03z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A decreasing trend in storm coverage is
expected today, with only a slight chance for showers in the White
Mountains by Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds are also expected for
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with generally light winds
are anticipated.






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