Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWEST OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LEADING TO A DRY WIND FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM REGIONS,
WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO CAUSE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 DEGREES IN THE LOW DESERTS OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY AND THE FLOOR OF THE GRAND CANYON.

BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS IN THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
A LINE FROM PAYSON TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST STORM THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN
OR NEAR STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE
FROM PAYSON TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
HAZARDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST
OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL FLOW RAMPS UP.
THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ERRATIC WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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