Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281131
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
431 AM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND EVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING HAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO
AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 7000 FEET TO 8000 FEET
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND
THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS WILL HAVE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION RANGING
FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS
FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PICK UP MORE MOISTURE AND HAS AMPLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.0 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOCUS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

ON MONDAY NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ACROSS ARIZONA HELPING AID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A HEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST
OF A KAYENTA TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT LINE. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6500-7000 FT MSL EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AFT 18Z. SW
WINDS BECOMING 15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS THROUGH 02Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND
FRIDAY RESULTING IN COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS FROM AROUND PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWESTWARD. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER. WETTING
RAINS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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