Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 PM MST Sat Jun 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A strong warming trend will continue into next week
with record high temperatures likely during this period. An
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower elevations of
Yavapai, Coconino and northern Gila counties through Thursday. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the remainder of Coconino, Yavapai,
Navajo, and Apache counties for Sunday through Thursday.


Strong high pressure will lead to well above normal and
potentially record temperatures over the coming days. Though not
particularly windy, these hot and generally dry conditions will
impact any new wildfire starts in the northland. We have expanded
the Heat Advisory from Sunday through Thursday to account for all
of northern Arizona not already covered by existing Heat Warnings
or Advisories. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop Monday
and Tuesday, and to a lesser extent later in the week, but
appreciable rainfall at the surface looks rather unlikely. These
could, however, result in some strong, gusty, and erratic wind
gusts near any showers.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Smoke from area fires may create
localized MVFR visibility near the ground, especially overnight.
Smoke could also affect flight paths. There is an outside chance
of a thunderstorm over high terrain areas on Sunday afternoon,
which would be capable of producing very strong wind gusts.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist for the next
twenty-four hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER....Hot temperatures with afternoon RH in the single
digits and teens are forecast for Sunday and Monday. High Haines
indices will promote rapid fire growth. Cloud buildups will be
visible on Sunday. On Monday, thunderstorms producing minimal
rainfall and gusty winds are expected to develop over high terrain

Tuesday through Thursday...Thunderstorms producing gusty winds
will once again be possible on Tuesday. A few storms may occur
on Wednesday and Thursday. Hot temperatures, high Haines indices,
and low RH values will persist. Breezy west winds are forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday
to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004-007>017-039-040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ005-006-




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