Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 PM MST Mon Mar 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For Tuesday...a cooling trend will begin as a storm
system approaches Arizona leading to even cooler temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday along with good chance of showers. Dry
conditions are forecast Friday and most of Saturday with another
low pressure system possibly affecting the region Saturday night
into Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Radar imagery indicates the high-based showers that
formed in response to a passing, weak weather disturbance have
dissipated. Satellite imagery reveals mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies across most of northern Arizona. However, expect
increasing mid and upper level cloud cover by Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching weather system currently over the east


.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop and move across the area today as a weak weather
disturbance stays mainly north of the forecast area. The warm
conditions will begin to transition to a cooler wetter pattern
Tuesday as low pressure system begins to assert its influence over
the region. Winds will once again become gusty out of the
southwest Tuesday afternoon as peak heating mixes angular momentum
down to the surface. Winds will decrease back to near calm
conditions Tuesday night after sunset.

A low pressure system will rotate into the California coast
Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase over western Coconino
and Yavapai counties Wednesday afternoon and evening, then shift
east into Gila/Navajo/and Apache counties early Thursday morning.
Snow levels will start out in the 8000-9000 ft. range late Wednesday
night, then fall to around 6500 feet after sunrise Thursday as the
trough axis pivots into Arizona. The best chances for snow
accumulation will be Thursday morning along the Mogollon Rim. Snow
accumulations should remain around an inch or less. Total liquid
precipitation accumulations should be three-quarters of an inch
or less.

Precipitation chances will taper off from west to east late Thursday
afternoon and night. By Friday, short wave ridging will lead to
mostly sunny skies and temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.

A progressive pattern will continue through the weekend into early
next week with precipitation chances returning to the forecast
Saturday night and again Monday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package..VFR conditions will persist
throughout the next 24 hours. Another round of breezy winds are
forecast from 17Z Tuesday through 02Z Wednesday. Most locations
will see southwest winds from 10-20 knots with gusts 20-30 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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