Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 180645
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
230 AM ESTF...DROPPED THE REMAINING FROST HEADLINE IN SE PA.

EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVC.
TEMPS MOSTLY 35 TO 40. ISO FREEZING TEMPS KSMQ TO KMPO SHOULD BE
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THESE PREDAWN HOURS.

A LIGHT NE-E WIND CONTINUES.

ELY MARINE LAYER OF HIGH RH SATURATING JUST BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND 2200-2400 FT. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A
RECORD LOW WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA.

TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX T DURING THE
DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED
SFC SUSTAINED WINDS.

LOW CLOUDS RECEDE EWD AS THE BL WARMS BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DOMINATE MOST OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THEN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD
DURING THE AFTN. E WIND G NEAR 15 KT BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE
DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN
2P AND 5P VCNTY PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT.

CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD WITH A SMIDGE OF CFP CLOUD NEAR
4000 FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING
TURN W OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS 2000-2500 FT. LIGHT EAST WIND.

AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING OR MIDDAY WITH A VFR CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER
(GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN THURSDAY AND A SEA BREEZE
FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND TENDS TO TURN SE-S.

TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH CHC OF A SCT-BKN DECK NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD
10Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFP).

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 9 FT AT 44009 AT 2 AM.

GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SO HAVE RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING.

SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED
THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.

DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE
WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET FRIDAY THEN SHIFT TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. MON THRU

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA 245
NEAR TERM...DRAG 245
SHORT TERM...DRAG 245
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 245
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 245





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.