Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 141700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P
RIP CURRENTS...1P






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