Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT
SHOULD REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES
OF CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

THE WIND WILL START FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION
IS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH TODAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A LARGE H5
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SAT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. AS
SWLY FLOW INCREASES, SUNDAY WILL BE HOTTER, EVEN MORE HUMID, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

SEVERAL S/WVS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE ON SUN. HOWEVER, EACH MDL HAS A
DIFFERING SOLN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHCS STILL REMAIN N AND
W. THE GFS IS WETTEST, THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT SLOWER AND A TAD
DRIER. THE CMC IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM/WRF IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS.

THE NAM/WRF AND CMC AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT
TO MAKE SUN NIGHT THE WETTEST PERIOD. HOWEVER PRECIP PLACEMENT IS
STILL A BIG QUESTION WITH BOTH THE CMC AND GFS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP TO THE OF OUR AREA OR OVER THE NRN EXTENT.

THE GFS IS THEN FAIRLY DRY ON MON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
LATE. THE CMC IS COMPLETELY DRY ON MON AND THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WETTER LATE, BUT STILL IMPLIES ITS MOSTLY LATER DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSRA. BUT SOLNS RUN FROM NO PRECIP TO CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH. SO
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS.

MDLS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ONCE ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ENDS,
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

THEN PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE WITH CFP. THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR WED AND THU MARKING A RETURN TO DRY WX.

TEMPS WILL START NR NRML AND THEN BE ABV NRML (CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES) FOR MANY AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE PD, BEFORE RETURNING TO NR
NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD. SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE LABOR DAY WKND HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 3 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY, GENLY AT THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W OF PHL WHICH
CUD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON THROUGH TUE...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL EVERYWHERE
ON MON, WITH LESS POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES
ON DELAWARE BAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL APPROACH
MON INTO TUE. IT IS PSBL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THAT WE COULD
REACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME LATER SUN INTO MON AS SEAS
INCREASE IN THE SWLY FLOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FOR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO





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