Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 300731
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
331 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for
most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through
the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect
moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of
the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could
begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our
region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level
trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west
through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left
under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect
any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated
instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect
some thunderstorms as well. The moisture advection could also
result in patchy fog ahead of precip moving into the region
depending on how quickly dew point temperatures recover.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead
of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms
to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the
coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into
Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as
a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region
to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to
the north, we could see some isolated activity across our
Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds
(which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from
northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore
however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over
KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick
shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze.
After 00Z, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases from
south to north (though still remains relatively small chances
through the overnight hours). For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. In addition, patchy fog will
be possible, primarily at the coastal plains TAF sites (KACY,
KMIV), which could result in MVFR or even IFR visibilities.
Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early
Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.
Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.
Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.
RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger
Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.