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000
FXUS61 KPHI 280455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, SO THEY ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE STILL REMAINS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE WITH NEGATIVE LIS
AND SHOWALTER INDEXES, SO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING
AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON