Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 061957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IT IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WITH MARYLAND.
THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE KEPT US IN AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT ARE MORE CONFINED TO
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AS THEY SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW.

WHILE WE START TO SEE DRYING OCCUR ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

LOWS TONIGHT WON`T DROP MUCH FROM THE DAYS HIGHS, PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN UP ON SATURDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS, IT WILL START TO PUSH TO THE EAST GIVE UP ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED
OVER US TODAY, WILL START TO FALL APART AS IT GRADUALLY GETS
ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT THINGS TO START CLEARING UP AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE COOLER AIR WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL START TO
MODIFY ON SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, SOME
UPPER 50S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA FINALLY OPENS UP LATER SATURDAY AND
BEGINS MOVING TO OUR EAST THOUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES EASTWARD, AND THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY, BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY. HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
OVERRIDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH COULD CREATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA, AND STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE, AND ANY OTHER THAT FORM, COULD CAUSE
THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT. THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK AS THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS
NEAR KRDG. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND INTO OUR AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY ALOFT
WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE EVENT AND WE TRANSITION THE
TERMINALS TO DRIZZLE FROM 22Z-00Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOW CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASES
WILL GRADUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BELOW 1000FT,
DROPPING AS LOW AS 400 FT AT SOME LOCATIONS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SATURDAY...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL START TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO RISE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO VFR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE
TO A LIFTING AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN
ALONG ATLANTIC AND OCEAN COUNTIES. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 35
KNOTS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR BUT SHOULD DROP OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THE GALE IS
TAKEN DOWN, THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINING
OCEAN ZONES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP BELOW 5 FEET,
FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CEASE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WATERS AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE NEW MOON WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR AT 330 PM TODAY AND THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAVE FACILITATED THE ONGOING TIDAL FLOODING
ACROSS OUR REGION. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE...REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO DELAWARE BAY...THE NEXT HIGH
TIDES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SHORE THIS EVENING GENERALLY BETWEEN 730
PM AND 830 PM...THEN UP INTO DELAWARE BAY BETWEEN 830 PM AND AROUND
10 PM. THE HIGH TIDE THE BACK BAYS WILL BE 4 TO 5 HOURS LATER. IT
APPEARS THAT MODERATE FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH DEPARTURES OF + 1.5
FT. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. THE
SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
LEVELS.

NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL PART OF THE DELAWARE
RIVER...THE LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE ELEVATED...BUT NOT TO
THE EXTENT NECESSARY TO CREATE MODERATE FLOODING. INSTEAD...MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND THE PRESENT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER
BAY WILL BE CONTINUED. WE HAVE ADDED A NEW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
TIDAL SEGMENTS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AT REEDY POINT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AT PHILADELPHIA AROUND 230
AM. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
OVERNIGHT.

CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE ELEVATED WATERS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WERE
AT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE EARLIER TODAY. THE
PRESENT (LOWER) HIGH TIDE WILL CREATE WATER LEVELS JUST AT MINOR
LEVELS AND AN ADVISORY HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. THIS
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING SINCE THE
DEPARTURES AT THE NEXT (HIGHER) HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
MUCH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA


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