Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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886
FXUS61 KPHI 301028
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
628 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area
today. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by
high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached
to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across
the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward
through the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts overnight
have generally been around 1 to 2 inches. However, with heavy rain
still moving through, locally higher amounts remain possible. For
more information on any flood threat or rainfall amounts, please
see our PNS and FLS products.

Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to weaken as it moves slowly
along the South Carolina coast early this morning. Tropical
moisture associated with Bonnie continues to push northward
towards our area. As Bonnie weakens and moves east, the moisture
plume that has been feeding into our area will also start to push
east.

While we will still have showers and some isolated thunderstorms
around through the day today, the latest model guidance shows that
the best chances will remain along I-95 and east with out western
areas starting to dry out. While it won`t be a steady and constant
rain all day long, there will extensive cloud cover across the
region and in areas where it does rain or thunderstorms develop,
we could still see some heavy rain fall.

Fog continues to remain a concern along the coast. While the rain
moving through will eventually help to dissipate the fog, we will
also need the winds to turn more to the west and moving offshore.
Fog should start to clear out by late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
For the most part, the rain should be ending across the region.
Areas to the east of I-95 may still see some showers into the
evening but the threat of thunder looks like it will have ended.

With Bonnie not moving and remaining to our south, we likely won`t
fully clear out and shower chances will continue across out
southern and eastern areas overnight. Expect showers to end by
late tonight/early Tuesday. Fog may once again form across the
region overnight.

Cloud cover will remain across the region with some possible
clearing over our northwestern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Due to ongoing hydro operations, the long term portion of the forecast
was not updated on this mid shift. We apologize but need to keep short
term warning ops our highest priority. The long term forecast (day
2-8) will be updated in the normal afternoon update cycle. Meanwhile
all our statements are up to date as of 6 am, including significant
tropical overnight rains which led to spotty flooding. See the
climate section for rainfall ranking.



High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with
above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in
the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the
shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered
showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of
moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression
Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn
Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most.

The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up
across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some
unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer
showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for
now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and
locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...mainly MVFR/IFR conditions continue across the
region. Some breaks in the rain have allowed for conditions to
briefly return to VFR but this is not expected to be sustained
through the rest of the night. Additional rain continues to
develop to the south of the area and will push northward. Some
isolated thunder is noted over the western shore of Maryland.
However, confidence in any thunderstorms impacting the terminals
remains low. Winds are generally out of the south but are
becoming light and variable at some terminals.

Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of
heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of
showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The
lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible
improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG.
Patchy fog is possible at the terminals Monday night. South to
southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range.

OUTLOOK...
Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu-
Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
We have extended the time for the Dense Fog Advisory until 2 pm
today. We have also added in the remaining zones on the ocean,
also in effect until 2 pm. With the water temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the 70s, fog is expected
to continue across the waters through this afternoon.

South winds remain light across the waters with gusts up to 25
knots. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through today. Seas will start to build but are expected to remain
below 5 feet. The far eastern portions of our ocean zones may near
5 feet later today but are expected to remain below.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may
reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct
tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The primary Sunday night rains have occurred and our statements
are up to date as of 6 AM. This includes local storm reports and
public information statements regarding the rainfall amts which
have averaged around 1 to 2 inches I-95 corridor westward;  but
we think with spotty 3+ in the NJ portion of the corridor as well
as the Poconos.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Wilmington`s monthly rainfall now is around 7.3 inches which
makes this the 4th wettest month of May in the period of record
there.

Philadelphia`s monthly rainfall now is around 6.65 inches, which
ranks this the 10th wettest month of May on record.

ACY only needed an inch of rain these last 2 days of the month to
rank as a top 10 wettest month of May.

Additionally, the 1.06 inch total so far today at Wilmington, as
of 6 am, is just shy of the daily record (1.10 in 1983). Daily
records began in 1894.


Monday

ACY 3.07 1984   por 1874
PHL 1.74 1908   por 1872
ILG 1.10 1983   por 1894
ABE 1.68 1968   por 1922
TTN 1.62 1912   por 1865
GED 2.04 1984   por 1948
RDG 2.92 1904   por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record
                          daily rainfall)
MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901

Finally, we are having to estimate rainfall at Mount Pocono due
to a problem with the sensor.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Drag/O`Hara 628A
Aviation...Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Meola/O`Hara
Hydrology...628A
Climate...628A



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