Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 030139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE VA-NC
BORDER AND TO OUR EAST JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART
IT WILL DRY OUT.

THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT. IF MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN THE COVERAGE
OF FOG MAY BE GREATER, ESPECIALLY IF THE BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ARE STABLE EVEN IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AT ACY/MIV AROUND SUNSET THIS EVE AS THE
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ACY). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS; TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LESS THAN
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ BEACHES TO BE RIGHT AT THE
CUSP FOR MODERATE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN


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