Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 250431
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1231 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly push northward through the area through
Monday morning. A cold front will approach from the west, moving
into the region late Monday night and Tuesday, then stalls near or
just to the south of the area through the midweek period. Another
system may impact the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

A warm frontal boundary will continue lifting northeastward
bringing a more muggy airmass with it. The boundary is serving as
a trigger for some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region. The 04Z HRRR is fairly aggressive in
developing these showers and thunderstorms with an increase in
coverage over the next few hours. However, some indicators are not
quite as bullish on the increase in coverage. Will raise pops in
some spots based on radar trends over the past hour or so. Expect
at least a few showers and storms around through the overnight
across the region. The best chances will be in Delmarva where
instability is already in place. temperatures will not fall much
overnight given the warm air advection and some cloud cover in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Monday is expected to be on par with this past yesterday (Saturday,
June 23) in terms of the heat and humidity. Both this past Saturday
and upcoming Monday represent the peak of excessive heat during this
extended heatwave that started Friday and continues through late in
the week. No changes were made to the heat headlines; Excessive Heat
Warning in effect for the heat-sensitive population in the urban I-
95 corridor from Wilmington to Philadelphia to Trenton with maximum
heat indices forecast to be around 105F. To the southeast of the
warned area, including the rest of our Delmarva zones and southern
NJ, a Heat Advisory is in effect tomorrow with the heat index
peaking somewhere between 105 and 110F. Advisories are also in
effect to the north of the I-95 corridor that includes northwestern
NJ and eastern PA, where heat indices are expected to fall between
98-103F.

The shortwave trough associated with whats left with the overnight
MCS is forecast to move off the coast during the early to mid
morning. Model RH fields indicates the potential for mid- and high-
level clouds to hang around during the day. The clouds will play an
important role in how the forecast unfolds for Monday afternoon.
Exactly how early in the day and how persistent these breaks occur
with these leftover debris clouds will determine how hot and
unstable we get during the afternoon. Based on the latest guidance.
we think subsidence in wake of this early morning shortwave will
provide an opportunity for most of the area to at least partially
clear out by late Monday morning. Strong heating will allow for
temperatures to rise quickly into the 90s during peak heating hours
and for the atmosphere to rebound/destabilize.

A pre-frontal surface trough is forecast to sharpen on the lee side
of the Appalachians during the day. Convection will likely initiate
during the first half of the afternoon to our west near the lee
trough and also to our north with deeper lift arriving in advance of
an upper shortwave disturbance moving over the Great Lakes. This
activity is then expected to progress eastward late in the day. The
greatest confidence in showers and storms (and thus highest PoPs)
arriving before the short term period ends is north and west of the
fall line. A slight chance of showers and storms are forecast for
Philadelphia between 4 and 6 PM. The latest D2 outlook from SPC
includes northeast PA and northwest NJ in a slight risk for severe
storms. The marginal risk for severe storms farther southeast into
the I-95 corridor  though the bulk of thunderstorm activity may
still be upstream of Philadelphia through 6 PM. The main threats
with these storms will be locally damaging winds. Storms that form
in such a hot and very humid airmass (e.g., yesterday) tend to
produce severe thunderstorm episodes. Although the amount of
instability Saturday should be similar to yesterday (MLCAPE 1500-
2500 J/kg), DCAPE values may be slightly less tomorrow with not as
pronounced mid level drying.  The other concern will be locally
heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding as storms develop
in a moisture-rich environment (PWATS exceed 2) and a slow-moving
boundary approaching to our west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday as
the cold front makes its way into the area. The cold front stalls as
it moves south and looks to remain in the vicinity of Delmarva
through the midweek period. Areas that manage to stay behind the
stalling boundary will have some cooler and drier air moving in,
which will allow for the hot and stickiness of the past several days
to finally decrease. While it will still be fairly hot outside,
those lower dewpoints will help us to remain at a more comfortable
level and we do not anticipate any headlines will be needed at
this time. Areas closer to the stalled boundary will remain a bit
more humid and will continue to have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

The front will waver and start to push northward as a warm front
late Wednesday or Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible in areas closer to the boundary. The front will also serve
as transport for a few waves of low pressure, which will move fairly
quickly through the area. Overall, showers and thunderstorms will be
a threat from midweek through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR Cirrus cigs lowering to near 7000 ft during the night
with showers/iso tstms (vsby 3-5mi in any showers) approaching
KRDG at 02z modeled to dissipate as they near I-95 around 04z/25,
then redevelop along the NJ and DE coasts toward 08z-09z/25. light
south-southwest wind.

Monday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 6000 ft. sw wind gusting to 15 kt during
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may reach ABE-RDG during
the mid to late afternoon Monday. This activity will likely remain
upstream of the I-95 TAF sites through 23Z.

Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Wednesday
through Friday, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-small craft advisory conditions will continue tonight and
Monday. There is a chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into the first half of Monday morning.
Additional showers and storms will likely remain inland through the
afternoon on Monday.

Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected
to continue on the area waters through much of the week. Expect
higher winds and waves in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly Monday night into Tuesday and again on
Wednesday through Friday.

Rip Currents...Monday`s risk for formation of dangerous rip currents
is low. However if the wind were to turn south 15 kt and a 4 ft 5
second southerly swell were to develop late in the day, we`d
probably experience a low enhanced risk along the NJ coasts.
A south to north longshore current will prevail. Beyond Monday:
with the Atlantic Basin continuing quiet tropically, unless we get
a strong onshore flow...RC risk this coming week should be generally
low. Tstms and pockets of chilly upwelling water may the greater
concerns. There is some sign of colder upwelling along the coasts
this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The forecast high temperature for Philadelphia tomorrow, Monday,
July 25th, is currently 98F. The last time the temperature
reached or exceeded 98F at PHL was three years ago on July 18,
2013. The last 100-degree day at PHL occurred four years ago on
July 18, 2012.


Record high temperatures for Monday through Thursday are below. We
may tie or break daily record highs tomorrow at several of our
climate sites.

KABE and KRDG had record equaling highs on Sunday the 24th.


Site    25th      26th       27th       28th
----    ----      ----       ----       ----

PHL...  96-1899   101-1892   101-1940   100-1941

ABE...  95-1999   98-1940     98-1955    97-1949

ACY...  99-2010   96-2011     99-2005    98-1999

ILG...  96-1987   99-1894    100-1894   101-1894

TTN...  97-1999   99-1892    100-1894   101-1894

GED...  99-2010   97-2012     98-2005    99-1949

RDG...  96-1999   99-1940     98-1955    99-1941

MPO...  90-1999   89-1949     91-1955    93-1949

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NJZ001-007>010-012>014-016-020>027.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for DEZ002>004.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag/Gaines/Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Klein/Meola
Marine...Drag/Klein/Meola
Climate...



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