Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG






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