Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 231910
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
310 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
A cold front will move across the area tonight. High pressure will
build across the northeast over the weekend into early next week. A
warm front is expected to lift north of the area around Monday,
while a cold front moves across the area around Tuesday. The front
will push out to sea Wednesday, while high pressure builds in for
the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front, currently extending from New England, through central
NY, and into the Great Lakes, will drop to the south and east this
evening, and will work its way across the region tonight.
A few showers and thunderstorms may develop across the Poconos and
into northern NJ early this evening, and then some showers may
spread south into central NJ and along the NJ shore after midnight.
Can expect a BKN-OVC mid-deck to spread through the region late
tonight and into daybreak Saturday. A brief period of sprinkles is
possible, but not expecting much in the way of measurable QPF south
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Cold front continues to work its way south through the CWA on
Saturday. May take some time to clear southern DE/MD zones, so the
cooler and dryer air may not get there until late in the day. Few
lingering showers possible along the NJ shore early, but those will
taper off by midday.
Clouds will give way to increasing amounts of afternoon sunshine
from north to south. Temps will return to seasonal levels, generally
topping off in the mid to upper 60s across the Poconos and into
northern NJ, and in the low to mid 70s for most of PA/NJ. MD/DE will
be a bit warmer, generally in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather Saturday night
through Monday. Cool conditions, along with a dry forecast are
expected through Monday.
By Monday night, a warm front is expected to have lifted north of
the area. If there are any weak short wave/vorticity impulses
overnight Monday, a few isolated shower could possibly develop,
On Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move across the area. The
ECMWF is faster than the GFS, which brings the front across the area
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The GFS brings the front
across the area during the day Tuesday, as does the Canadian model.
We will continue with an expectation of a Tuesday frontal passage,
keeping Tuesday as the period with the greatest POPs.
The front is expected to have pushed offshore by Tuesday night and
out to sea Wednesday. High pressure will build back across the area
for the end of the week. It is possible that a few isolated showers
are possible in the northwest flow Wednesday as a short wave moves
across the area. However, the remainder of the week Thursday and
Friday will remain dry.
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Cold front approaches tonight and passes through from N to S after
midnight and into Saturday morning.
VFR forecast for this evening with W-NW winds less than 10 KT. Winds
become N this evening in the immediate passage of the cold front,
and then winds become NE thereafter. A few gusts to 20 KT possible,
but for the most part, winds will be 10 KT or less, and 10-15 KT
near the coasts.
There may be a brief shower at KABE or KTTN, and sprinkles are
possible elsewhere. Not expecting much in the way of VSBY
restrictions in precip, so will leave out of the TAFs. MVFR CIGs
will develop with its passage, generally from 2000-2500 FT, but
cannot rule out 1000-1500 FT CIGs at KACY.
CIGs gradually lift to VFR Saturday morning from N to S.
Saturday night-Monday...VFR conditions expected.
Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR early Monday night, possibly
lowering to MVFR by Tuesday, improving back to VFR Tuesday night. A
chance of showers, especially Tuesday.
A cold front approaches from the north this evening and slowly works
its way south tonight through Saturday morning.
Behind the passage of the cold front, winds become N, and then NE.
for ANZ450-453, can expect a period of 25 KT wind gusts, and seas
will build to around 5 ft. Will hoist a Small Craft Advisory for
those zones from early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
For southern ocean waters, think gusts will be marginal at best, and
seas may only briefly touch 5 FT. Will hold off on SCA for those
waters. Conditions should remain below SCA criteria on DE Bay.
The probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents this
evening remains low to moderate.
Weekend...shaping up as a low enhanced or moderate risk.
Saturday night-Monday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected
through. Winds may gust around 20 knots at times.
Monday night-Tuesday night...Small Craft Advisory level winds
possible ahead of and behind a cold frontal passage.
Wednesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return.