Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the region tonight. High
pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday before
shifting off shore. A warm front is expected early Wednesday,
followed by another warm front on Friday. As a surface low lifts
across the Great Lakes Region, a cold front will sweep through our
region on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will move across the area this morning. Mid level
moisture and clouds have increased ahead of the approaching
boundary. Meanwhile, a weak short wave/vorticity impulse will slide
across the southern areas this morning. Isolated showers and
sprinkles have occurred to our southwest overnight, and it is
possible that a few isolated shower or sprinkles could make their
way across our area this morning. These sprinkles will affect our
Delmarva counties, as well as extreme southeast Pennsylvania and
southern New Jersey if they make it into our area.

Once the morning short wave moves east of the area, clouds are
expected to clear out by the afternoon and a nice day will occur. A
secondary front or surface trough is expected to move across the
area later this afternoon. However, afternoon temperatures for most
places are still expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal and
approaching records once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected overnight as a northerly flow will develop
across the area as high pressure will be centered to our north
across Canada. A backdoor cold front will approach the area
overnight and toward daybreak, so clouds may begin to increase some
across the northern third of the area overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In the wake of the back door cold front, temperatures tomorrow
and Tuesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees lower than today.

By the later half of Tuesday, the surface high will be shifting
off shore as a pre frontal trough approaches from the west. This
will set up southerly low level return flow by Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, expect an increasing chance for rain
showers across the region.

The next warm front is expected by late Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. Stayed close to a blend of guidance at this time, but
as confidence increases for an early morning warm front arrival
time, may need to go above guidance for Wednesday highs as
guidance continues to underestimate warm air advection events.

For Thursday and Friday additional warm air advection is
expected, with Thursday possibly being the warmest day of the
week (assuming that the previously mentioned warm front doesn`t
slide back south into our region as a cold front early
Thursday). However, warming on Friday could be tempered by
overcast conditions and an area of rain expanding into our
region thanks to a closed surface low lifting over the Great
Lakes Region.

The associated cold front with this low should sweep through the
region early Saturday, though there is some uncertainty with the
timing. As it does so, it should bring an abrupt end to the
rain. Even with the forecast strong cold air advection,
temperatures over the weekend may still be slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across the area.

Southwest winds early will become west to northwest this morning
through this afternoon. Wilds will become gusty in the mid to upper
teens during the afternoon. The gusts will drop off later this
afternoon, but a light breeze will continue through tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday...Ceilings could lower to MVFR with rain showers continuing
into Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.MARINE...
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the waters
today and tonight. However, wind gusts may approach Small Craft
Advisory levels late tonight into Monday morning north of Little
Egg, so we will continue to monitor in case an upgrade is
needed.

Outlook...

Monday...winds may gust near or above 20 kt at times, but
should stay just below 25 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Allentown tied their record high for the date yesterday at 67
degrees (originally set in 2011).

Here are the record highs for today:
PHL 68-1948
ILG 67-1997
ABE 63-1997
TTN 68-1948
GED 74-1976
ACY 73-1961
RDG 67-1997
MPO 58-1981
At this time, the forecast at PHL, ILG, and ABE is at or within
2 degrees of the records.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Johnson/Robertson
Climate...



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