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000
FXUS61 KPHI 150903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMMERTIME SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING US NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, WE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL SEE A NICE DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE BACK NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS WILL START TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS WE LOSE OUT
SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY MORNING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BEMUDA HIGH PATTERN
WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SWLY LOW LVL
FLOW AND ASSOCD INCREASING HUMIDITY. FCST FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY
ZONAL BUT A SHRTWV TROF IS INDICATED MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH.
ASSOCD UVV AND INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTBY WILL TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THERE SEEMS TO BE LESS FORCING FOR UVV ALOFT BUT THE AMS
IS SIMILAR...MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SFC THETA-E...AND SOME
TROFINESS AT THE SFC SO SOME AFTN CONVECTON CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AND WE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE FCST.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SUFF TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BRINGING A RETURN SLY FLOW AND A LEAST A
CLIMO CHC FOR AFTN CONVECTION.

NOTE...THE 00Z GFS RUN SEEMS TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
RESULTING IN AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WAS DISCOUNTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED DECKS
AROUND 5000 FT DEVELOPING TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE OUR SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND WILL START TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, BECOMING MORE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WITH SW WINDS 5
TO 10 KT. SOME MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTNS AND EVES.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR OR LOWER IN SHWRS AND
T-STORMS DURING THE DAY. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NW TO N WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FEET AT BUOY 44009 AND WE HAVE CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET ON
THE OCEAN.


OUTLOOK...FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SW WINDS ON SUNDAY
COULD BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY. SW WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SHIFT
TO NW LATER ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MORE LIKELY
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA