Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 031748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
IN A GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG



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