Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 211940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD. IT SHOULD PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA.

THE RAIN IS ABOUT A FAR NORTH AS IT IS GOING TO GET. IT CONTINUES TO
APPEAR AS THOUGH THE RAIN INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A TOTAL OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
PHILADELPHIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY`S NORTHERN
SUBURBS INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

THE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION ON A MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE ARE
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP RISING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MAY 22. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL MOSTLY CONSIST OF FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
COOL SAT MORNING WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
MOST OTHER AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MOST AREAS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE
WEST. POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

THE LATER PART OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE JUNE THAN LATE MAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S...BUT THEN TUE-THU WILL HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. THE PERIOD WILL
ALSO HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ALMOST DAILY CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TEMPS CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT WAVE (THREE 90+ MAX TEMP DAYS) ACROSS THE
URBAN AREAS. RAINS IN THE PERIOD WILL BE SPOTTY AND LOCALLY HEAVY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1900Z. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES WERE BEGINNING TO DROP TO MVFR AT OUR REMAINING
SIX TAF SITES.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN FOR A TIME INTO
THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR
KMIV AND KACY WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST IN
OUR REGION.

GRADUAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF
STEADY RAINFALL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

A VARIABLE WIND AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
FOR FRIDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 16
KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SPOTTY FOG
    WITH POOR VSBYS OVERNIGHT.
MON THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
    EARLY EVENING WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD FOR TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AND WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BUILD NEAR 5 FEET.

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AS A PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SCA FLAG FRI INTO THE EVENING THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW END SCA FLAG FOR SEAS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW CONFID IN SCA CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, TODAY`S RAINFALL IS
FORECAST TO KEEP FINE FUEL MOISTURE FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE GREEN-UP IS NOT COMPLETE, MOST
NOTABLY THE PINE BARREN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE
UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE
SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER
TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**TOP 10 WARMEST MAY CONTINUES LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA**

THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE PROJECTIONS FROM YESTERDAY STILL
LOOK ON TRACK.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING AN
AVG TEMP OF 68.7 TO 69.3 OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AT
THE LEAST, 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN
69.2 2004.

FOR ALLENTOWN...POR TO 1922. YESTERDAY WE WERE PROJECTING 65.0 OR
5.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS
67.2 IN 1991.

POSTED BECAUSE ITS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST 90 IN
PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29
ALLENTOWN MAY 30
WILMINGTON JUNE 4
ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG/O`HARA



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