Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291400
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
STALL TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER NORTHERN NJ AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THRU THE DAY...WHILE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED W/VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE, BUT OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN AREAS, SO WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE SHORT WAVE NOT TO HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL; A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN GRADUALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RIDGING OVER THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UP INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE INCREASING IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THE COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LESSEN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TODAY WITH BASES AROUND
4,000-5,000 FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
AS CHANCES ARE SMALL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. SOME GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS, FOG
AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. THE SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINE THRU
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL RESCUES TOOK PLACE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS
SURF ZONE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR TODAY. A LOW RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR THE DE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN
1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



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