Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...


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