Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 150745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...AFTER SOME LCL GROUND FOG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ERLY THIS AM WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.