Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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759
FXUS61 KPHI 241511
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area
today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving cold front will
approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move through the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds and widely sct showers remain across srn NJ and the
Delmarva this morning. These clouds will be slow to mix out with
the sfc flow now coming in off the ocean. So we will continue with
the low chc pops for showers and maybe a tstm this afternoon.
Better conditions expected across the far north, closer to the
building high. In these areas, no showers are expected and skies
will be partly to mostly sunny. High temps will likely be higher
across the north and tempered by the onshore flow across the
srn/ern areas. Minor edits made to temps and dew pt grids for the
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR across most taf sites except for low  clouds amd MVFR at MIV
and IFR at ACY. Looks like thee conditions will hold for several
more hours before slow improvement. Winds mostly NE to E thru the
afternoon.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will accordingly build to
around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by tonight. There is a
potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by late tonight but
confidence in this happening was too low to issue a SCA at this
time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...Seas off the coast will build to 3-4 ft in
response to an onshore flow that develops this morning and
strengthens this afternoon. Medium-period southerly swells will be
around 2 or 3 ft. In this setup, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will approach moderate this afternoon.

Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may persist
into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware
Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein/Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein/O`Hara
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara



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