Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240734
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift to our northwest today, then a backdoor
cold front pushes through the area Saturday. This front is
forecast to stall near the southern portions of the area through
Sunday, then return northward as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Another
low pressure if forecast to move out of the midwest and offshore
of the northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, pulling a cold
front across the east coast. High pressure will try to build
down from the north Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift
offshore today as a warm front approaches from the south and
west. That warm front lifts through the Delmarva by 10 pm, and
then through the Poconos by 2 pm. Precip develops out ahead of
the warm front.

Models fairly slow with the timing of the precip, with the
precip holding off until after 8 am, with the 00Z NAM and 05Z
HRRR not bringing precip into the Poconos/Lehigh Valley until
closer to 10 am. The onset of precip will be key, as the longer
it takes for the precip to enter the region, the better the
chance for temperatures to rise above freezing for most of the
area. Also, much of the area remains dry, with dewpoint
depressions anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees. So it will take time
for precip to develop this morning. Across the Poconos, where
the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect, temps look to remain
below freezing until close to noon. As a result, wintry precip
expected for Carbon and Monroe counties, with several hundredths
of an inch of ice possible this morning. Will not make any
changes to the Advisory, as no significant changes are planned.
For central NJ and into SE PA, a quick shot of FZRA and/or sleet
is possible, but the bulk of the precip should be plain rain.
This is a low QPF event for most of the region, as areas south
of I- 78 may only end up with a few hundredths of an inch of
QPF, and between 0.10"-0.20" QPF possible north of I-78. Most of
the Delmarva may end up staying dry.

Precip tapers off across the region, generally between noon-
2pm. WAA will be underway behind the warm front, and increasing
SW flow will push temperatures back up to near and slightly
above normal levels. Highs this afternoon will top off near 60
across MD/DE, and in the low to mid 50s across southern NJ and
SE PA. The Poconos and northern NJ will top off in the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow sets up tonight as high pressure remains anchored
over the Southeast U.S. Conditions remain dry, but some mid-
level moisture will spread into the region, keeping cloudy skies
in place tonight.

Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s north of I-76, mid to
upper 40s across southern NJ and SE PA, and in the low 50s
across MD/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A backdoor cold front will sink through the area during the day
Saturday as high pressure moves across northern New England and
eastern Canada. The front is then expected to stall just to our
south through Sunday. As the front moves across the area, then
stalls to our south, several short wave/vorticity impulses will
slide across the area as well. This will lead to a chance of
showers across the area, though it will not rain the entire
time. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal Saturday
before the front moves through, then return closer to normal
Sunday on the northern side of the boundary. We will have to
keep an eye on the temperatures across the far north Saturday
night into Sunday. The NAM is hinting at the possiblity for
temperatures to drop close to freezing, which could lead to a
period of freezing rain. For now, the forecast keeps all areas
above freezing.

The frontal boundary is then forecast to lift back northward as
a warm front overnight Sunday into Monday as an area of low
pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Another couple
of short wave/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the
area as the warm front lifts northward, and will enhance
precipitation potential across the area. Sunday night into early
Monday morning has the greatest chance of seeing more
widespread precipitation potential.

Another low pressure is then forecast to move out of the
midwest then offshore of the northeast Tuesday into Tuesday
night, pulling a cold front across the east coast. This will
keep unsettled weather across the area through Tuesday night as
several short waves/vorticity impulses slide across the area.
Behind the cold front, drier weather is then expected to return
for Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures are currently forecast to be a few degrees above
normal for the majority of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Warm front lifts north through the region this morning into
this afternoon. Quick shot of FZRA possible from 13Z-15Z at
KABE, otherwise, any rain that does fall will fall as plain
rain. Brief MVFR conditions likely, otherwise, VFR. Conditions
dry out after 18Z.

Light S winds this morning will become SW 8-12KT this
afternoon, and then winds decrease to 5-10 KT tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday-Tuesday...MVFR or IFR conditions with a chance of rain
possible through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT across
northern NJ waters this afternoon and into this evening. SCA
remains in effect. For DE ocean waters and DE Bay, conditions
may be close to SCA levels for a brief period this afternoon,
but confidence that a SCA is warranted is low.

Conditions gradually subside to sub-SCA conditions tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday-Saturday night...Conditions expected to fall below
advisory levels.

Sunday-Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory levels possible.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds may be below advisory levels, but seas
could remain elevated leading to Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT
     this afternoon for PAZ054-055.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS



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