Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 280756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NJ
THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY  LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A DECENT SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PRECEDED THE LOW AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE W/S LATE
MORNING AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE N/E AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THIS FCST.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THIS
FCST WITH THE PREVIOUS VALUES LOOKING CLOSE TO WHAT IS BEING OFFERED
IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 50S
NORTH AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE DELMARVA/SOUTH NJ AND THE METRO
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY/NERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10
TO 15 MPH CLOSE TO THE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. THE SHIELD OF THICKER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS/OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
40S. THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHC OF
ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BY DAWN. POPS WILL DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT AS MOST OF IT SEEMS
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN PART DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING THE WEATHER TO BE MOSTLY DRY
FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND START TO
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND NRN NJ AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH CAUSES DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS. THE
PREVAILING ERLY FLOW IS BECOMING MORE HUMID AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND W WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CLR/PC AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH AS WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY.
RAINS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR THEN
POSSIBLE IFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEW TAFS ARE A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH SOME OF THE NEW LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR
LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND RAIN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SOME FOG WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A SCA FLAG FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING AND FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START TO
RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE OCEAN.

SATURDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND POSSIBLY NEARING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
START TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON OCEAN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA



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