Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 052136
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
436 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will move northeast across the region
tomorrow into tomorrow night. With high temperatures mainly in the
40s, most of the forecast area will see rain. However as colder
air moves in across the north, the Pocono area will see a mix and
change over to snow. Some light accumulation is possible. A large
low pressure system moving slowly across the Great Lakes into New
England will send a cold front, and more seasonal temperatures across
the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
This morning`s precip is but a memory as high pres builds into the
region and clouds decrease.  Expect a dry and cold night with
increasing clouds toward daybreak.    Overnight lows will genly be
in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
On Tue, an area of low pres will eject out of the Glfmex and move
newd twd the Mid-Atlc. This low will bring another round of precip
to the area from sw to ne. Precip will begin durg the mrng s and
hold off until late aftn n. Most locations will see all rain.
However, nrn and wrn sections (especially the Poconos) cud see
some mixed/wintry precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the storm system continues across the region into Tuesday
night, cold air will filter in across the Poconos bringing a
likely change over to snow. Accumulation of around 2 inches is
possible, mainly across the far northern counties. All precipitation
will move east of the forecast area early Wednesday morning.

Mild conditions will continue through much of Thursday, with
colder air overspreading the region Thursday night. This will
bring a more winter-like airmass with highs mainly in the 30s and
lows in the lower to mid 20s expected.

Medium range models differ at the end of the long term. The GFS
suggests strong moisture return ahead of an approaching cold
front. Will introduce slight chance pops late Sunday into Monday
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

After a troublesome mrng with precip then, low cigs that lingered
into the aftn, conds have become VFR at all TAF sites.

VFR conds are now expected for the remainder of the day into
tonight and the first part of Tue.

Then, an area of low pres will move newd from the Glfmex.  This low
will bring precip to the area from late mrng s, thru the aftn
(elsewhere) into Tue night.  Most locations will see all rain,
though some mixed or wintry precip can occur n and w.

Along with the precip will come some MVFR/IFR conds later Tue aftn
into Tue night.

A W to NW wind around 10 kts this aftn will decrease to less than 10
kts overnight. The wind will become more NE twd mrng and more E
durg Tue.

OUTLOOK...
Conditions will rapidly improve to VFR Wednesday morning and
continue predominantly VFR through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The prev issued SCA will remain in effect as issued for Tue.  Prior
to that, no marine flags are anticipated.  Seas and wind will
increase.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for ANZ431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...NRR
Near Term...Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...NRR
Aviation...Nierenberg
Marine...Nierenberg


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