Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG


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