Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240159
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND-SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. A CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS HAS BEEN DISPLACED PRETTY FAR
SOUTHWARD OWING TO THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A
RATHER PERSISTENT HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA, RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND NWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PRESSURE SURGE WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO
THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING FAST. THEREFORE, LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE AND DID NOT SEE A PRESSING NEED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING
WARNING FOR EASTERN PA AND NW NJ ANY FARTHER SOUTH.

THE DAYTIME/CAA STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THE EARLIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE
MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION BY LATE SATURDAY...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY COOL
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN IS FOR MID WEEK BUT THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST ON THUR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT THIS EVE ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN BUT
GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE LINGERED THRU 02Z AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT WILL STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. BKN-OVC SKIES WITH CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
START TO CLEAR LATE THIS EVE.

ON FRIDAY...AFTER 12Z VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF A KILG/KACY LINE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE EVENING IF THE HIGH IS A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE HIGHER SEAS OR WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS MAY BE ENHANCED ON FRIDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SUSTAINED
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET IS
FUEL MOISTURE. FINE FUEL MOISTURE IS STILL HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
COORDINATE WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS IF ANY ADDITIONAL
PRODUCTS BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ060>062-101>106.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-
     103-105.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...SMZ
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...KLEIN/SMZ/GIGI
MARINE...KLEIN/SMZ/GIGI
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN/GIGI/JOHNSON


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