Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 191348
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates our area weather through Friday. Low
pressure is forecast to strengthen as it moves northeast off the
mid Atlantic coast late Saturday, heading toward Nova Scotia Sunday.
Unsettled weather may remain through the first part of next week
with an upper low in the vicinity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: Partly sunny this afternoon. There might be a couple
of showers in NJ, e PA with a leftover cool pool aloft and modest
low lvl moisture trying to initiate a low top convective release.
Overall a good day. No significant changes to the fcst attm. Light
wind with coastal seat breezes developing.

Tonight...Mostly clear with radiational cooling in the countryside
as high pressure slides eastward overhead. Any daytime cumulus is
forecast to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky
anticipated for the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Potentially one of the nicest days we have had in a while. High
pressure will be in firm control. Temps will be in the upper 70s
and sw wind will be light.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An area of low pres nr the Glfmex will move newd to nr the NC/VA
brdr by erly Sat. From there it will continue its newd trek off
the fcst by Sat night. Rain will develop Sat mrng over srn
sections and overspread the area durg the day. Rain cud be hvy at
time Sat aftn and eve before tapering off Sat night. There is
still some uncertainty wrt the track of the low. However, it
appears the best rain chcs and best likelihood for hvy rain would
be over srn and ern areas. The GFS continues to end the rain
sooner the the ECMWF. However, ECMWF soln has some support from
the NAM/WRF and have trended the fcst that way.

Beyond Sat, there is lower than average confidence. An upr
low/trof will be meandering over the region. There will likely be
a break in the precip erly Sun before some shwrs move in later
Sun. Then, after a drying trend in the mdls 24 hours ago, there is
now a wetter trend for Mon and Tue. None of the days look to be a
washout, just some showers. However, confidence is lower than
average. With an upper low in place, some sct shwrs are to be
expected due to the instability around, but the mdls just tend to
overdo things in these situations. For now, will just keep low
pops to avoid flip flopping and see if there is better mdl
agreement with time. It does appear that by Wed, conds could
improve despite what may or may not happen on Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. Isolated afternoon showers
possible, vcnty KTTN and KABE but chances too small to add to the
TAF at this time.

Light north or northwest wind backing to west or southwest later
in the day except sea breezes developing along the coasts
including KACY.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm wind

Friday...VFR. Light wind.

OUTLOOK...
Fri night...VFR conds under high pres. High confidence

Sat and Sat night...MVFR/IFR conditions. An area of low pres will
move twd the area from the sern CONUS. It will reach the NC/VA
brdr area then continue to track newd offshore. ra will develop
durg the mrng hours from sw to ne. The best chcs for ra and
heaviest ra are in srn and ern portions of the area. Ra should be
tapering off by daybreak Sun. Moderate confidence.

Sun and Mon...VFR/MVFR conditions. Possibly a break for a period
early Sun, then potential for showers thereafter through the
remainder of the forecast period. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Friday.

Water temperatures are generally a little below normal now.

Light northeast wind turns south to southeast this afternoon and
may gust 15 to 20 kt for a time. Winds turn northwest tonight and
early Friday before sea breezing south to southeast again late in
the day Friday.

OUTLOOK...
Fri night...No marine headlines are anticipated, with high pres
over the area.

Sat thru Sun...Low pres over the sern CONUS will move newd to
near the NC/VA brdr then off the cst and then continue out to sea.
This newd track will cause an increase in wind and subsequent
increase in seas on sat into erly sun. SCA flags are anticipated
before wind and seas drop below sca criteria later Sun.

Mon...Conds remain unsettled due to an upper low nearby, however
no marine headlines are anticipated attm.

RIP CURRENTS: The Surf Zone forecast begins Friday morning and it
will have a news headline on our homepage. It should also be
accompanied by a probable debut of the Experimental National Beach
Forecast page (if not Friday, then next week). You will be able to
click the beach located umbrella and get more beach localized forecast
information including beach specific forecasts, the surf zone forecast,
ultraviolet index, rip current preparedness/safety information for
beaches within our forecast area. DIX and DOX live radar will be
posted on the right side as well as Rip Current recognition video,
and Lightning Safety tips. Comments will be welcome. We expect
that we will need to adjust the density of the beaches offered.
All this will be tied together in a social media announcement
sometime late Friday morning.

Ultimately for beach goers maximum enjoyment and safety...swimming
within vision of lifeguards is a best practice.  Rip currents come
and go, tending to repeat only near jetties and piers, particularly
the incident side of the swell. Rip currents may be a little stronger
when the tide cycle is in the lower half of its cycle. Most rip
current fatalities are male, under 40 and unguarded beaches.

Water temperatures are currently a little below normal, mid 50s.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DIX radar will be OM through at least 17 or 18z.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg/drag 947
Near Term...Drag/Iovino 947
Short Term...Drag/Iovino 947
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Iovino/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Iovino/Nierenberg
EQUIPMENT....Drag 947



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