Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291504
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND,
AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A FULL
MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN. ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AND
WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY.   IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW RISK.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...1105
CLIMATE...1105



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