Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 182048
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered in our region this afternoon will move
to the east and out to sea tonight. The high is forecast to
settle over the western North Atlantic for a few days and it
should influence our weather into Wednesday. However, a warm
front may lift through our area on Monday night. A strong cold
front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive
late on Wednesday night and early on Thursday. High pressure is
expected to build from the Great Lakes across southeastern
Canada and New England on Thursday and Friday. A couple of warm
fronts may lift through our region in the Friday to Saturday
time frame with a cold front forecast to approach from the west
on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds in across the area this evening before
slowly moving offshore overnight. This will result in mainly
clear skies through most of the night along with light winds.
These factors along with lingering snow cover over northern
areas will set up good conditions for radiational cooling so
expect lows generally in the 20s to low 30s. Late at night, mid
and high clouds begin to move in from the west but this should
not have a big impact on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore Monday as a warm front
approaches the area. Clouds will quickly increase through the
morning with some showers arriving west to east beginning around
the late morning / early afternoon time frame. The precip will
be driven mainly by the warm advection and overruning north of
the warm front and be heaviest and steadiest north of the Mason-
Dixon line. Highs will range from the low to mid 40s across
northern areas through the southern Poconos into NW NJ to well
into the 50s across interior portions of southern NJ through
much of the Delmarva. The I-95 corridor should see highs right
around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period from Monday night through Saturday is expected to
feature a mid level trough over the western states and a ridge
over the east. The mid level pattern is expected to begin
shifting over the weekend.

A warm front is forecast to lift through our region on Monday
night. Mild moist air is expected to continue building into our
region. We are anticipating some lingering rain at that time
along with the development of areas of fog. The fog may persist
into Tuesday morning.

High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain a
mild southwesterly flow in our region for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will be much above normal with afternoon readings
getting well into the 60s and 70s. The records for both days are
listed in the climate section below.

A cold front from the northwest is anticipated to arrive either
late on Wednesday night or early on Thursday. We will begin to
mention showers for late on Wednesday and we will keep them in
the forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday.

The frontal boundary is expected to push to our south before
stalling late in the week as an area of high pressure passes
well to our north. Friday should be the chilliest day of the
week. However, maximum temperatures are still anticipated to be
about 5 degrees above normal at that time.

The front is forecast to return northward and it may bring some
rain for Friday and Saturday. A cold front is expected to
approach from the west on Sunday resulting in a chance of rain
showers at that time. Temperatures should remain mild over the
weekend with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable.

Monday...VFR in the morning with clouds increasing and cig
restrictions to MVFR likely developing by the early to mid
afternoon time frame as showers move in. IFR cigs will be
possible by late afternoon. South to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night and Tuesday morning...IFR conditions are expected
in low clouds and fog.

Tuesday afternoon and evening...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...Patchy low clouds and fog
with some IFR conditions expected.

Wednesday afternoon...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers around
KRDG and KABE.

Wednesday night and Thursday...A chance of showers with VFR and
MVFR conditions.

Thursday night and Friday...A chance of rain with VFR and MVFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory
criteria as high pressure builds in through this evening then
offshore overnight through Monday.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night through Wednesday...Wind speeds and wave heights
are forecast to remain below the Small Craft Advisory criteria.
However, fog is expected to develop over the coastal waters.

Wednesday night through Friday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday, February 20:

Atlantic City...70 in 1930

Philadelphia....70 in 1939

Wilmington......71 in 1930

Allentown.......68 in 1930

Trenton.........70 in 1930

Georgetown......68 in 2002

Mount Pocono....59 in 1930

Reading.........72 in 1930


Wednesday, February 21:

Atlantic City...74 in 1930

Philadelphia....72 in 1930

Wilmington......70 in 1953

Allentown.......67 in 1953

Trenton.........70 in 1930

Georgetown......71 in 2014

Mount Pocono....60 in 1930

Reading.........71 in 1930


The following are the record warm minimum temperatures for
Wednesday.

ABE 46-1981
ACY 49-1954
PHL 49-2002
ILG 47-2002
RDG 48-1930
TTN 48-2002

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Fitzsimmons
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
Climate...Drag



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