Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 291311
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After patches of early morning fog and stratus burn off, a fine
mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue with a gentle west
to northwest wind. Looks like a period of partly sunny skies in NJ
during the morning as more moisture is evident in the cloud cover
than anticipated earlier. Local coastal sea breezes may develop
this afternoon...probably a southerly sea breeze (instead of
southeasterly which we expect on Thursday).
Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer withseasonable
low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less
dense with less areal coverage than that of this early Wednesday
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.
Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.
Rest of today...Leftover IFR/MVFR cigs vcnty KACY KMIV KTTN probably
clearing to VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft around 15z. Elsewhere VFR sct
aoa 5000ft. Wind mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob
Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).
Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.
Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.
Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.
Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.
RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. However, if the sea breeze develops
early in the afternoon and persists, the risk may increase to
moderate. At this point, though we do not expect that to happen
with most coastal locations seeing offshore flow through the day.
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.
Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature Friday, otherwise ensembles and
operational totals as WPC D1-D7 totals are not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I78 region northward.
June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
Near Term...Drag 911