Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WHILE IT MAY NOT
RAIN CONTINUOUSLY ALL DAY LONG, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN, WHICH
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS SPC HAS EXPANDED THE GENERAL THUNDER RISK. WITH SUCH LIMITED
PARAMETERS THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OT ROW BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE
WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION, WE MAY HAVE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE, LOCALES THAT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S, WITH THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE, HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY, AND THEN START TO
LIGHTEN UP AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY
INDICATE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS
AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS WHEN
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF
SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON THE
TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND
THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN MOST
AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY WHEN
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.

THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THESE
PERIODS ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL DROP TO IFR AT OR NEAR 12Z
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TANKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW FAST THAT OCCURS. HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TAFS AS THEY REFLECT THE BEST TIMING
FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS.

AS THE RAIN LETS UP SUNDAY EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
REMAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
PREVALENT.

WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
    AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
    POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
    WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS
  THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  NRN NJ WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA



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