Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...





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