Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 310933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVE WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THEN WILL TRACK INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING EAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DECREASE, AND WITH THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE LOW, EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN YESTERDAY/S
HIGHS. SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID LAYER CLOUD DECK (AROUND 4000 FT AGL) WHICH COULD ADVECT OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER EAST, PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE, ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP TO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SHOULD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS LAST NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFD WILL BE REISSUED SOON WITH LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT AGL COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
AS IT DOES, THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT KABE, BUT THAT IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 12Z. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR 10KT WITH FEW GUSTS. AFTER 00Z,
EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...


&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT
MAY NOT DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
GUSTS DO DROP BELOW GALES, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

OUTLOOK...


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER AS WATER LEVELS AT REEDY POINT ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2
FT BELOW MLLW. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER FOR THIS
MORNINGS LOW TIDE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... JOHNSON





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