Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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967
FXUS61 KPHI 301612
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND SOME
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS WE SOME DECENT RIDGING OCCUR ALOFT.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHEAST FLOW AND THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION,
ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE BREAKS IN THE SKY WILL START TO CLOUD OVER
ONCE AGAIN.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDCOVER FROM THE PHILADELPHIA REGION
NORTHWARD HAVE RESULTED IN A QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60`S. HOWEVER, WHERE OVERCAST SKIES HANG ON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 50`S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT, THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS AND THEN INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT,
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. PWATS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 1.0-
1.5 INCH RANGE, INDICATING THAT THE RAIN WILL BE STEADY, POSSIBLY,
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH ARE SPUN OFF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW FROM THE PLAINS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. MOSTLY
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. POPS IN THE THE
PERIOD ARE EITHER LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1/2 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BENIGN
PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION WHILE LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THERE ARE STILL SLGT CHC
POPS FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WITH THE
STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MOST OF THE OP MODELS HAVE THE UPPER H5
HEIGHTS COLLAPSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SENDING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERY SPELLS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MOST OP MODELS FORM SOME SORT OF COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z EC OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAS A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM FOR THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. THE
CANADIAN ALSO HAS A DEEP LOW IN THE VICINITY...BUT A DAY EARLIER.
THE GFS HAS A LOW WEAKER (ONLY AROUND 1000 MB) BUT THE TIMING IS
MORE LIKE THE EC.  POPS FOR THESE PERIODS WERE RAISED FROM
PREVIOUS FCSTS...BUT ARE STILL IN THE CHC RANGE ATTM. DETAILS
WILL BE REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN MVFR MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP
DOWN TO IFR FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

A PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WITH FREQUENT RAINS AND
   AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WED...VFR MOSTLY. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
   FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO
THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA. SEAS MAY BUILD NEAR SCA BY WED
   EVENING ACROSS THE NRN NJ COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA



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