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000
FXUS61 KPHI 172242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN TO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA
FRONTAL WILL EDGE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE AROUND NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FAIR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WIND. YOU CAN SEE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
ON THE COASTAL NJ/DE RADARS PENETRATING INLAND. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT E OR NE DURING THE NIGHT. MIDDLE DECK
CLOUD CURRENTLY (22Z) ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE IS MODELED TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO PHL AND THEN ROLLS
ESEWD THROUGH SNJ AND THE DELMARVA OVERNIGHT WITH ITS W EDGE
EDGING NEWD THRU E PA AND NJ.

THE U.S. MODELS BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN IN ON THE DEVELOPING
ALBEIT MODEST EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, A SLOWLY MOISTENING H8
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE ECMWF STOPPED THE ADVANCE OF
RAIN JUST AT OUR SOUTHWESTERN DOORSTEP. THE CANADIAN IS THE
SLOWEST OF THE FOUR TO MOVE RAIN NORTHEAST. WE KEPT THE FORECAST
THROUGH 10Z DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA AND
THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY, BUT THERE ARE
STILL SIGNS OF IT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE ONLY
BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
SOUTHWEST, AND THAT IS LARGELY IN KEEPING WITH CONTINUITY. WE DO
PUSH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS
PERHAPS ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES CAN TRIGGER SOMETHING
THERE; OTHERWISE THERE`S SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I295 TO I300K
TO GO WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUNDER DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE A CONCERN THIS FAR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND THE MODEST ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW, WE CONTINUE TO
FORECAST COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHES WELL TO OUR EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO OUR EAST, THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN MAY COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FRONT MAY WOBBLE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR AREA, OR JUST NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, AND THICKNESSES INCREASE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE FORECAST, THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD LATE WEEK.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MEANDERING THEIR WAY BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES
TRAVERSING THE AREA AS WELL. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
EACH EVENT, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES TIED TO THE POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND VORT MAXES CURRENTLY FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THERE IS
INSTABILITY BEING FORECAST. SUNDAY WOULD MORE LIKELY BE SHOWERS AS
NO INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS AOA 7000 FT DEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT.
LIGHT WIND WHICH IS AT 22Z EAST AT KACY SHOULD BECOME NE OR E
ELSEWHERE DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CIGS AOA 6000 FT.  MOSTLY E-SE WIND G UNDER 15 KT.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH LOWERING CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY SHOWERS, OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE FORECASTING SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
PORTION OF SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. SEAS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS WINDS DO.

OUTLOOK...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ALSO, SEAS COULD APPROACH
5 TO 6 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WINDS COULD STILL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS, AND SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR FIRST RIP CURRENT FORECAST OF THE SEASON SHOULD POST THIS
EVENING AROUND 9 PM AND WE ARE PROJECTING A LOW RISK FOR TOMORROW.

SAFE BOATING AWARENESS WEEK BEGINS TOMORROW AND ENDS THE 24TH
AND RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2-8. THERE WILL BE DAILY
PNS`S AND ASSOCIATED PSA`S FOR NWR EVERY DAY FOR BOTH AWARENESS
WEEKS.

WATER TEMPS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 642
NEAR TERM...DELISI/DRAG 642
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DELISI/DRAG/ROBERTSON 642
MARINE...DELISI/DRAG/ROBERTSON 642
RIP CURRENTS...642