Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA






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