Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA





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