Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 292142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY
FAR BEHIND IT. THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS THOUGH HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIDE NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE WITH PERHAPS
EVEN AN INCREASE FOR A TIME THERE. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY,
WITH SOME DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, THEREFORE THE HOURLY GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH THIS SO
FAR.

DURING THE NIGHT, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM NEAR KTTN, KPHL METRO AND KILG
ON EASTWARD EARLY, THEN VFR CEILINGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG, KABE
AND KMIV TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 25 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44009 WIND OUT OF SERVICE AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS
OF YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...




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