Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 180300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1044 PM ESTF UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR RAPIDLY EXPANDING SKYCOVER
WESTWARD PER THE NAM 1000-950MB RH INITIALIZATION AT 00Z THIS EVENING
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE THE SKYCOVER REALITY THAN THE GFS. USING
THE 1000-950 80M PCT RH AS GUIDANCE FOR A CIG NEAR 2000 FT. FROST
ADVY RISK FOR NJ SEEMS TO BE ON THE WANE AND WILL REMOVE AS SOON
AS AM ABSOLUTELY SURE. BOTTOMLINE...NOT AS COOL LIKE LAST
NIGHT...DEFINITELY MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE EASTWARD DURING
THE MID AND LATE MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION,
WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST
WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND
MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 2000-2500 FT SPREADING WESTWARD
PER NAM 1000-950 80 PCT RH FIELD. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IN STEPS
FOR THIS AS THE CIGS BECOME MORE EVIDENT WITH TIME. THE SAT 3.9
MICRON IMAGERY IS A BEST FIT FOR WHAT IS DEVELOPING AT 0230Z.

LIGHT EAST WIND.

FRIDAY AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 8 FT AT 44009. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
WILL CONVERT THAT SCA HEADLINE AT 8Z TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

IN THE MEANTIME ENDING LOWER DE BAY WITH THIS EARLY ESTF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>022-
     027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 11P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GIGI 11P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 11P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 11P





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