Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, WE EXPECT THIS MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR A PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE I95-295
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD
KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM
BERKS COUNTY, INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH LITTLE MIXING. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE LESS QPF, SO THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS
WHERE MIXING OCCURS.

FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING AND STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THIS SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS.

HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS SHORT TERM SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
DELAY.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARD.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT
MAY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AT KMIV AND KACY
BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN
THE DAY, AND VFR DURING THE EVENING.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.MARINE...
THIS SHORT TERM MARINE SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE
FOR THE DELAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 409A
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A






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