Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 271607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THICKER
CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO
SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH
AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL BE FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



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