Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF TODAY...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS WITH THE PRIOR
EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS GUSTY TO 22 KT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE RAISED SLIGHTLY
PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 330P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 330P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...330P






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