


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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093 FXUS61 KPHI 111258 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 858 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the region through the weekend. Weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time generating scattered showers and thunderstorms with their passage, especially in the afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross the region early next week, with high pressure possibly becoming more dominant for a time towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Observations and web cams show improving visibility. Therefore, the dense fog advisory will be allowed to expire at 9 AM EDT. Stationary boundary remains just south to southwest of the area, but is rather weak and diffuse. This means we`ll feel a bit more of an easterly flow across the region through the next couple days, albeit weak. The easterly flow should keep us just a bit more stable today, resulting relatively modest convective coverage despite the nearby boundary, and focusing the convection inland as opposed to areas closer to the coast as occurred yesterday. This idea of lower coverage is supported by the ever weakening upper level support. After morning low clouds and fog break, we should ultimate see more sun today than yesterday, and despite the easterly flow, it will be enough to nudge inland areas up to around 90. With dew points up around 70, heat indices will reach the mid 90s. Other than a risk of low clouds and fog, tonight will be humid but mostly dry. Lows near or just above 70 for most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Onshore flow just north of the stalled front will continue Saturday, resulting in a relatively similar day to what we`re expecting today...low clouds and fog early breaking for some sun and temps rising to near 90 inland, with spotty afternoon convection most likely away from the coast. And Saturday night looks similar to tonight overall...any early convection dissipating with potential low clouds/fog overnight and lows mostly near or slightly above 70. Conditions get a bit more active Sunday as the next cold front approaches from the northwest. With better upper level support and a push of more humid and unstable air coming up from the southwest, we`ll see a better risk of afternoon convection, with a greater severe and flood risk. SPC has placed a marginal risk of severe weather across our western zones for Sunday, which is an upgrade from the general thunder outlooks we have for today and Saturday. Otherwise, Sunday looks similar to Saturday in the temperature/cloud cover/fog department, with potential early low clouds/fog giving way to some sun before any storms fire, and temps back up around 90 with heat indices into the mid-upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Front slides right into the region for Monday, with likely the stormiest day of the forecast period on tap. Another busy day looks possible with severe and flood concerns, but still a few days to look harder at this. Highs likely end up just a smidge cooler than Sunday thanks to greater cloud cover/earlier development of storms. Front tries to slide south of the region thru the middle of the week, though a bit of uncertainty among the guidance here. Overall, however, it should be a decrease in convective coverage compared to Monday as a Canadian high tries to build in while passing to the north. Air mass doesn`t change a whole lot though, so still looking at highs near 90, heat indices into the mid-upper 90s, and perhaps some isolated convection inland. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Early morning conditions as low as VLIFR due both to cigs and vsby (depending on terminal) improving to VFR with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Light winds. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR to start but with sub-VFR possible later as low clouds/fog attempt to redevelop. Light winds. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub- VFR conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but confidence low on timing and placement. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect. South to southeast winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-4 feet are expected through tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time, especially at night. Rip Currents... For today, a southeast wind of around 10 MPH and breaking waves of around 2-3 feet with a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore. With waves of only 1-2 feet along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW Risk for rip currents is in place. For Saturday, an easterly wind around 10 mph but with breaking waves of only 1-2 feet and a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7 seconds for all beaches. Thus, a LOW risk for rip currents is in place. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM NEAR TERM...Franklin/Johnson/RCM SHORT TERM...Guzzo/RCM LONG TERM...Guzzo/RCM AVIATION...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM MARINE...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM