Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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001
FXUS61 KPHI 051430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARBY OFFSHORE FRONT EARLY TODAY
BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COASTAL LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING THROUGH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS OF 9:30
AM. SIMILAR TO THE LOW FROM THE BLIZZARD ALMOST TWO WEEKS
AGO...THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE STRONG SST GRADIENT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS LESS COLD AIR AVAILABLE WITH
THIS CURRENT SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER...SO
IMPACTS WILL NOT BE COMPARABLE.


ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. TOTALS WERE ADJUSTED IN A FEW SPOTS BASED ON
LOCATIONS WHERE BANDING HAS SET-UP ALONG WITH TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM OUR SPOTTERS AND WEATHER OBSERVERS IN THE
REGION. THANK YOU FOR SENDING THESE REPORTS! PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF
EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THE SNOW SHOULD END INLAND BY 11 AM
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHEST (MID 40S) IN EASTERN MD AND EASTERN PA
(EXCLUDING THE POCONOS) WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO 40F IN
SNOWIER PARTS OF NJ AND ONLY IN THE 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO OUR EAST.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BUT THIS WAS DELAYED AN HOUR
OR TWO WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID SOUTH AT THE END OF THE DAY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A LOT OF THE SNOW THE MELT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A SNOWPACK LEFTOVER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SATURDAY, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS MAY
ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY WEARS ON
SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES. IN FACT, BY EARLY SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS OVER OR
JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
ALSO OF NOTE FOR LATE SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WHICH
INTENSIFIES AS IT PROGRESSES OUT TO SEA THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE OR NO
IMPACT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT
SOME HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE, PRONOUNCED
TROUGH SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TRANSFER OF ENERGY EASTWARD THAT
ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE THESE SIMILARITIES
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AND ITS RESULTING
IMPACTS OF RAIN/SNOW/WIND TO OUR REGION. IT DOES LOOK, HOWEVER, WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN AND STRONG DIGGING TROUGH THAT COLDER AIR WILL
BE RETURNING TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE
LEANED TOWARD A SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE APPROACH WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS, WINDS, AND POPS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC. THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE EXITED BY THIS TIME, BUT AN
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR KACY AND KMIV
DUE TO SNOW. THESE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
IMPROVEMENT OR MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. THOUGH THE GUSTS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO INCREASE
THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAFS, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS MAY
BE NEEDED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
16Z. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z AND BECOME LIGHT (UNDER 10
KT) AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AS THE DAY
WEARS ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING, LOWER VSBYS
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THRU 4 PM FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED STEADILY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. EXPECT GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KT TO REACH OUR ZONES STARTING AROUND 5 AM AND
CONTINUE THRU MID AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE
DE BAY BUT STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KT TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STILL BE IN SCA LEVELS IN OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES THRU THE
EVENING. NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ008>010-012-015>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     020>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ015-019-
     020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE



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