Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 220614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW CAN EASILY BE PICKED OUT ON A RADAR LOOP. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS
BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A
BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR TONIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR AND IN
SOME AREAS, IFR, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE IS NOT IN THE LATEST TAFS.

NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE WINDS
INCREASING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST.

TODAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






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