Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 270708
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be anchored over the western Atlantic through
this weekend while low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas
moves northwest toward South Carolina. A cold front will organize
over the Great Lakes early next week passing through our region by
the middle of the week. The low pressure system near the southeast
United States coast may linger there most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
300 AM ESTF: Showers in northeast Pa were moving slowly for northwest
NJ during the predawn hours and should move out of our CWA of northwest
NJ area by 7 am or so. PWAT is building and so slow moving showers
means torrents. Hamburg in Berks County earlier had 0.4 inches.

Today...Confidence on where and when any showers and tstms is
below average. Thinking mainly north of I-78 and mainly this afternoon.
pwat of 1.7 inches and slow ene movement of 15 to 20 kt could mean
the issuance of flood advisories for poor drainage street
flooding this afternoon in a few locations...maybe Morris County
is the focus?

Otherwise very warm and more humid with a potential for D2 of 90F
temps at KABE/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KACY/KGED/KESN. Depends on how much
sunshine and how much non marine influenced flow. Best chance for
90F temps is near and north of I-78 possibly extending down to
KPHL? Airmass is as warm as ydy with higher dewpoints. More cloud
cover may make it more difficult to maximize heat potential but
for now we have issued 90F Philly north. This again is above all
available NCEP guidance which includes the Super and National
blends which were biased low with respect to reality. EC also
indicates says about the same as ydy. this would mean max temps 10
to 15F above normal.

Max heat index today...roughly in the lower 90s...or about 5 to 6f
warmer than yesterday...because of the higher dewpoints.

South to southwest wind with afternoon gusts 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Any convection should diminish and end by midnight. Otherwise fair
and mild. Looks like haze and/or patchy fog early tomorrow morning
with the fog in your typical spots...northwest NJ and also vcnty
KRDG and KMIV. Min temps about 10 to 15F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: High pressure will be firmly in place
over the region. Subsistence from the high pressure will prevent
normal pop-up afternoon thunderstorm formation both days except in
the higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. A
gradual tick upward with humidity is expected, making it feel even
more like summer. High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees
warmer than met/mav with overnight lows climbing due to the
increased humidity.

Memorial Day: A low pressure system is likely to be located just off
the Southeast United States coastline. With a broad mid-level ridge
just offshore moisture is likely to be transported northward along
the eastern seaboard. Some uncertainty is present with this low
potentially become tropical. The National Hurricane Center currently
has a 70% chance of this forming into a sub-tropical or tropical
system between today and early next week.

While any tropical impacts would be well south of the region, the
moisture interaction with lift along an approaching cold frontal
boundary. This will lead to a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. PW values are also
modeled to approach 2 inches along with a modeled long-skinny CAPE
profile both also suggesting the prospects for heavy downpours with
thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be kept down as well due to
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

Monday night through Tuesday night: The cold frontal boundary will
likely continue to be close to the region and serve as a focal point
for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially
moving through by Tuesday. With the more scattered coverage of the
showers and storms, daytime temperatures will rebound a bit on
Tuesday after a muggy start.

Wednesday and Thursday: Another low pressure system and cold front
will move into the Central Plains with our region in the warm sector
with high pressure to the northeast. However, mid level temperatures
look cooler than with the warm-up this weekend. Forecast close to
WPC guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning through 12z...VFR with showers vcnty kabe
ending by 08z. Light south to southwest wind.

Today after 12z...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest
wind gusting around 15 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower
or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage
of any convection. for now we have prob30 of a mdt afternoon shower
in KRDG and KABE.

Tonight...VFR. Any evening convection diminishes and end early and
think mostly north of our TAF sites. Light south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday: Mainly VFR, southerly winds 5-10 knots
with gusts around 15 knots Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Isolated thunderstorms possible for KABE.

Sunday night through Monday night: MVFR/IFR ceilings possible.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms, the highest chance of
thunderstorms is on Monday. Southerly winds up to 15 knots.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, winds under 15 knots. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through tonight.

Southerly flow persists...at times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas generally
1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights were used for this 330AM
forecast.


OUTLOOK...
No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS: Probably issuing low risk today. Again with warmer than
normal temperatures, that seems to be one part of the recipe for
heightened surf zone danger. Another part: unguarded beaches. The
water temperatures were still only in the lower 60s.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Gaines
Near Term...Drag  308A
Short Term...Drag/Iovino 308A
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Drag/Gaines 308A
Marine...Drag/Gaines 308A


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