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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240738
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
338 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary and low pressure moving along it will remain
over our area this morning, but then move offshore later this
afternoon. A second low will follow tonight and Tuesday as the
boundary sinks slowly to the south. High pressure is forecast to
build down from the northwest for the middle part of the week.
A cold front from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on
Friday. The front is expected to move slowly to our southeast
over the weekend as areas of low pressure travel along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper trough and sfc front combined with ample moisture is
producing rounds of showers and sct tstms across much of the region
early this morning. Lighter showers are across the extreme north
part of the CWA. Tstms are accompanied by rotation with numerous SVR
and TOR being issued overnight. Damage has been reported near
Stevensville, MD. Excessive rains have resulted in FFW in many areas
overnight. See the LSR for all of the latest reports. Event is still
in progress, so busy night for all here.

Later, the front will lift across the region and the rains should
end from SW to NE later this morning. The FF watch will be extended
until noon for much of NJ and parts of ern PA, but dropped elsewhere
with the heaviest rains probably over in the W/SW areas early this
morning. The back of the boundary will bring more sct tstms to the
area later this afternoon.  Temperatures today will be very warm
with upper 80s and low 90s over the region. Clouds  will gradually
thin later this morning and into the afternoon. Winds will be mostly
S/SE early, then turn SW/W this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
System begins to move away and the showers associated with the cold
front will end from W to E early tonight. Drier air will begin to
arrive N/W and will spread over the rest of the area later Tuesday.
Lows will be in the low 70s S/E and low 60s N/W.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes overnight. The words below are from Sunday afternoon
AFD.

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday
night. Based on the latest model guidance, drying may be delayed
a bit. It now appears as though the mid level short wave trough
from the northwest will not arrive until late Tuesday. As a
result, we will keep some clouds and a slight chance of showers
for Tuesday.

Dry air is anticipated to follow the mid level trough for
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on
Thursday and it should pass through our region on Friday. We
will indicate an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms
at that time.

The forward progress of the front is expected to slow over the
weekend as waves of low pressure travel along the boundary. We
will continue to carry a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Sunday, but that could change if the front starts to trend
toward being even less progressive.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonable during the period
from Monday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Challenging fcsts for the morning with widespread poor flying
conditions across the area and sct showers/downpours and a few tstms
too. Overall, expect improvement this morning, but timing in the
tafs is low confid with a variety of mesoscale factors affecting
conditions. Winds will be mostly SE early, then turn SW/W by late
morning. There will probably be more showers/sct tstms this
afternoon across the area, again low confid in timing, basically
used PROB30s from guidance. Frequent Amds expected.

OUTLOOK....

Tuesday...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in the early
morning, then VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday night and Friday...MVFR and IFR conditions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters still coming up short of SCA conditions
attm. Seas are around 4 ft however and winds have gusted around 20
kts also. Wind directions have mostly been E or SE on the north side
of the front. The front will move northward today and winds will
become S or SW behind that. We will still hold the SCA flag for now
with the overall conditions remaining about the same into the
morning. Scattered showers and tstms with locally higher winds and
seas around tstms. Showers coverage will diminish later this
morning, be a few more tstms possible later this afternoon and into
the evening.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...
A low risk remains is expected for today for rip currents with
a possible moderate risk along the Monmouth and northern Ocean
County beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There was minor tidal flooding Sunday night along the coastal areas
and water levels will be elevated again tonight. It is not clear
that the levels will be enough to issue another Advisory at this
point. We will let the dayshift make the call with regards to
that.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Dew point readings at KDOV continue to measure too high
compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as
unrepresentative of the area.

Hamburg NJ transmitter is off the air. No known rts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for PAZ061-062-070-071-
     103>106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NJZ001-007>010-012-
     013-015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Iovino/O`Hara
Marine...Iovino/O`Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Equipment...Staff