Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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042
FXUS61 KPHI 291850
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
250 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably
warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress
and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as
of this writing, across Ocean county but less to the north and south.
DOX sea breeze is almost stationary as of this writing.

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially
the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be
ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with
less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning.
For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and
used the UPS crossover tool.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeableto the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component
along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to
northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest
wind. There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty
KMIV and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk
will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by
this evening.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during
the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in
the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast
along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few
gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean
County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger
rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ.
Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops.
Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference
of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or
stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday in
the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.

No matter what the risk, please think about where you swim.
Jetties and piers NO. Within sight of life guards YES, especially
if you`re a weak swimmer The goal is a safe fun beach experience.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west
swath between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:


The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures
at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer
and spring seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at
our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above
normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington,
with slightly above average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE*    68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14

*If ABE receives 0.20" or less of additional precip, it will
at least tie for the 10th driest June on record. Records for
ABE date back to 1922.

note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag 250P
Short Term...Drag 250P
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 250P
Marine...Drag/Meola 250P
Climate...250P



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