Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 171925
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic region will dominate
the weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The only
interruption will be a weak frontal boundary approaching from the
north Wednesday night into early Thursday. As the high moves off the
coast this weekend, a strong southerly flow will bring much warmer-
than-normal temperatures to the region through Monday. A series of
cold fronts will usher in rain...and colder temperatures...during
the first half of next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure with clear skies will continue over the area tonight.
Another cold night is expected, but the coldest temperatures will be
over the Pine Barrens of NJ with slightly warmer readings over the
wrn areas. Consequently, the Frost Advisory for tonight will be
across the Pine Barrens. We have also added Ocean County, with the
wrn more rural areas expecting frost and none near the shore. Lows
tonight in the low/mid 30s over rural NJ and upper 30s to low 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues across the region. Another sunny day is
expected area-wide. Temperatures will moderate back to a couple
degrees above normal levels with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Winds will be light mostly from the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mid-level pattern associated with the long term period begins
with a low-amplitude ridge across the eastern section of the country
Wednesday night. A weak trough moves through early Thursday before
another mid-level ridge sets up shop over the east coast by Friday,
with the amplitude of this ridge increasing through the weekend. A
deep mid-level trough then approaches from the west late Tuesday,
signifying major changes next week.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the central Applachians
Wednesday morning will drift south Wednesday night and Thursday as a
weak boundary slides in from the north. No precipitation is expected
with this boundary, so its only noticeable effect may be a
slight shift in wind direction and a slight drop in relative
humidity. Then as the surface high begins to push back north,
the nice weather will continue. With the amplitude of mid-level
ridging increasing into early next week, and a southerly flow at
the surface, temperatures will continue to rise too, maxing out
10 to 15 degrees above normal on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
A cold front will begin to cool temperatures down Monday night,
with a stronger cold front on Tuesday bringing with it the
coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Wednesday.
Light W to NW winds this afternoon will diminish overnight. Light
Southwest winds are expected Wednesday morning.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The remaining SCA flag for the southern NJ and Delaware waters will
be taken down at 3:30 p.m. Light winds and fair weather tonight and
Wednesday.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ020>022-
     027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Miketta
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Miketta
Aviation...Miketta/O`Hara
Marine...Miketta/O`Hara



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