Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 210124
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will push through the Delmarva tonight followed by
high pressure building into the area for Thursday night and
Friday. A cold front will cross the region and dissipate Friday
night into Saturday. Strong high pressure will then re-establish
itself into next week. Another cold front will slowly approach
from the northwest by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Some cirrus remains across the region this evening but should
largely clear overnight as high pressure slides over the region.
Winds have already dropped and will become light overnight, even
going calm in many locales. Patchy fog may develop, mainly across
southern Delaware and Maryland, where rain fell earlier this
evening.

Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s across the
northern areas and into the 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure will gradually move offshore. It will still be close
enough for another mostly sunny day across the region. This will
also mean a change to more southwesterly winds which will increase
the heat and humidity. Modeled boundary layer temperatures and
statistical data show highs right around or just under 90 for most
of the region on Thursday. An afternoon seabreeze could also occur
as well, cooling the shore off by a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pres and heat will be the main wx features thru the extendd
pd. thu night starts dry with high pres off the cst. fri am will
remain dry, but durg fri a cdfnt will approach from the w and
cross the region durg fri aftn and eve. expect shwrs and tstms to
develop, especially n and w. ltst guid suggests less areal
coverage, but there is some disagreement as to how far s the tstms
may actually reach. spc has the nrn 2/3s of the area in mrgnl risk
on fri with gusty wind and hail being the greatest risks in an
increasingly hot and moist ams.

by sat, the heat really gets turned up and continues into mon and
psbly tue. a cdfnt will cross the area mon night, but will likely
not do much to cool things down on mon as they will area too late
in the day. shwrs and tstms will accompany the front.  temps shud
easily hit the mid 90s Sat thru Tue, with heat index values
around 100 degrees Sat and sun and 105 degrees on Mon, then 95 to
100 on Tue. Heat headline will likely be needed for at least a
portion of this period and may be initiated as soon as Thursday.
The guid differs by a few degrees Sun and Mon and the dew points
can make a world of difference but no matter how you look at it is
going to be hot and uncomfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Clearing skies with light and variable winds across the
terminals. Some light MVFR fog may develop at KMIV but not
expecting fog to develop at the other terminals due to the drying
nature of the airmass.

Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to continue through
Thursday at the terminals. Light winds to start the day and then
southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots or less after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...VFR. High confidence.

Fri-Fri night...Generally VFR. A chance of shra/tsra, especially
n and w which may briefly lead to MVFR/IFR. Gusty southwest winds
15-20 knots. CFP. Mdt to high confidence.

Sat-Sun...VFR. High Pressure. High Confidence.

Mon...Mainly VFR. A cdfnt will approach from the W durg the day
and could trigger some shra/tsra durg the aftn, which cud lead to
some MVFR/IFR, especially n and w.  Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas are expected to remain around 2 feet through Thursday. Any wind
gusts will be under 15 knots more variable tonight then from the
southwest on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...
Thu night...No marine headlines anticipated.

Fri-Fri night...SCA conds psbl with increasing winds ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Sat-Mon...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will be low from Atlantic county, NJ south to the Delware
beaches, and moderate along Ocean and Monmouth counties. South to
southeast winds are expected through Thursday afternoon, which
means the winds will be more parallel to the coast for the
northern NJ beaches. As a result, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rips currents increases and that is why we have decided
to go with moderate north and low to the south.

We have had some reports of upwelling along the coast, where
water temperatures have dropped into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Nierenberg/Meola
Marine...Gaines/Nierenberg/Meola


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