Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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475
FXUS61 KPHI 020823
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move slowly into and across the
Canadian Maritimes today into Saturday. High pressure over the Ohio
Valley Saturday will move into our area Sunday before slowly
shifting north and east later Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will
then consolidate from the Plains to the Great Lakes Tuesday into
Thursday, sweeping a strong cold front across our area later
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise... patch of clouds over the Delmarva is unexplained
and slowly dissipating. Otherwise...mostly clear with a west wind.

Today... A sunny or mostly sunny day south but considerable cloudiness
develops ne PA and nw NJ with midday heating. Chance of flurries in
the Poconos later today or this evening per the 500 mb vort lobe
swinging sewd from Quebec. BTV snow squall parm has small
indicator of snow shower potential far ne PA. Temps/winds were a
blend of the 00z/2 GFS/NAM MOS. Raised guidance temps 1-2F per the
EC 2m 18z temp of 49F at PHL. These fcst temps are a deg or two
above normal. Winds should become gusty 20-25 mph midday or this
aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Clear to Partly cloudy except plenty of clouds nw edge of the fcst
area from lake effect and still a chance of flurries in the Poconos.
West-northwest wind a bit stronger than what it was predawn today.
Fcst was a 50 50 blend of then 00z/2 GFS/NAM MOS. Resultant fcst
lows are a couple degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The synoptic setup starts with a closed low centered near the
Canadian Maritimes early Saturday that then shifts eastward. This
will maintain a northwest flow of colder air across our area. Some
ridging them arrives Sunday allowing surface high pressure in place,
however a short wave trough sliding across the Great Lakes will
generally glance our area Sunday night into Monday. A more
significant short wave slides up the Ohio Valley Monday night and
Tuesday, driving surface low pressure with it. The pattern then
loads up to our west with a significant trough taking shape. This
should drive a consolidating low pressure system into the Great
Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, with an associated strong cold front
arriving in our area later Thursday. We used a model/continuity
blend Saturday through Sunday night, then blended in the 00z WPC
Guidance. Some adjustments were then made following additional
collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Saturday and Sunday...An upper-level trough loosens its grip on
the Northeast as the parent closed low weakens some and shifts east
of the Canadian Maritimes. This allows a ridge to arrive on Sunday
along with surface high pressure building in overhead. For Saturday
however, continued cold air advection in combination with strong
northwesterly flow will promote a gusty surface wind. The forecast
soundings overall show enough steepening of the low-level lapse
rates to result in wind gusts to around 30 mph during the day. These
winds are expected to diminish later in the afternoon and especially
at night as high pressure begins to build in. Lingering cyclonic
flow and cold air advection should result in areas of stratocumulus
Saturday especially across the northern half of the area. There
could be some snow showers or flurries in the Poconos Saturday
before enough subsidence and drying builds in. The clouds then
increase Sunday, especially later in the day and at night as a
weakening short wave trough moves through at night. This feature may
have a split area of light QPF, one across the north closer to the
main forcing and one southward with a weak surface low. Overall,
there looks to be a low chance for some rain/snow showers across
parts of the area, however any amounts are expected to be rather
light.

For Monday and Tuesday...A weakening short wave trough slides just
to our north Monday with perhaps some morning light rain/snow
showers in parts of the area. Some ridging then builds eastward,
however the orientation of it will position surface high pressure to
our north although it looks to build down into our area for a time
Monday night into Tuesday. As a trough starts to sharpen across the
Western states, an initial short wave that could be robust ejects
northeastward from the Gulf Coast states late Monday. This feature
is forecast to move into our area Tuesday, however it should be
running into surface high pressure and ridging aloft to our north.
The model guidance generally brings a precipitation shield up unto
our area Tuesday, however an associated surface low may then be
deflected eastward out to sea along a developing baroclinic zone.
This occurs as a weakening surface low lifts into the eastern Great
Lakes. Overall, Tuesday is looking more and more unsettled across
much of the area however the northern extent of the precipitation is
in question given drier air and the influence of surface high
pressure. As a result, we increased the PoPs into the likely range
down across the south with these then decreasing some northward. If
precipitation gets into the northern areas fast enough, snow or
mixed precipitation could occur for a time. The surface low to our
south and high pressure to the north will result in some increase
in an onshore flow.

For Wednesday and Thursday...The energy that moves into the area
Tuesday should be weakening Wednesday as surface low pressure moves
away from the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure centered to our
north will keep cool air in place and lots of clouds may linger
Wednesday. A significant trough across the West starts to move into
the Plains Wednesday with surface low development and consolidation
occurring. This will set the stage for downstream warm air advection
and some ridging, with a warm front approaching our area. The main
surface low is forecast to track to our northwest Thursday and it
may occlude, keeping the warm front from crossing our entire area.
The amount of overrunning that materializes will determine how much
precipitation occurs Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the cold
front, however deeper moisture from the Gulf should get pulled north
ahead of the front with the potential for another round of much
needed rain for our area. The passage of an associated strong cold
front later Thursday will mark the beginning of a much colder
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through today... VFR few clouds aoa 4000 ft. light west wind before
sunrise becomes gusty 20-25 kt midday and this afternoon.

Tonight...clear or sct clouds aoa 4000 ft. West-northwest wind
may be gusty to 15 kt.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday and Sunday...VFR overall with clouds increasing later
Sunday. Some light rain/snow showers possible later Sunday night,
with perhaps a brief period of MVFR ceilings mainly for RDG, ABE to
TTN. Northwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to
around 25 knots Saturday, then diminishing to 10 knots or less
Saturday night and Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible mainly
at RDG, ABE and TTN early Monday with some light rain/snow showers,
Otherwise VFR. VFR ceilings Monday night may lower to MVFR/IFR
Tuesday with some rain overspreading the area. This could start as
some snow from around ABE northward.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues for lower DE Bay but also the Atlc waters. Appears
guidance is running a little low and has been for the past 18 hours.
Surface and boundary layer temps at or below the SST permitting
decent transfer, at least in the lowest 25 to 50 MB adjacent the
sfc. Winds may lull for a few hours midday. Isolated gale force
northwest wind gusts possible late tonight in lower De Bay.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday...Gale Watch issued for the day Saturday for all but the
Upper Delaware Bay (Small Craft Advisory issued here). Continued
cold air advection and 925 MB flow of 30-35 knots will combine with
steepening low-level lapse rates. There may be some enhancement
within the northwest flow down Delaware Bay (lower part) and into
the adjacent Atlantic coastal waters. Since there is the potential
for a period of low-end gale force gusts in combination with some
local enhancement, a Gale Watch has been issued. The winds should
subside some Saturday night as high pressure starts to build in.

Sunday and Monday...The conditions should be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria as high pressure generally dominates.

Tuesday...Low pressure moves into the area. This combined with high
pressure to the north should result in an increase in the winds,
with gusts to about 25 knots possible. An onshore flow should also
lead to seas building to and above 5 feet on the ocean zones. A
Small Craft Advisory looks to be needed.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431-
     450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Drag/Gorse
Marine...Drag/Gorse



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