Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 201107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY
STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST
HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE
SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






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