Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 282002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL
CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH,
YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN
BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT,
BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN FOR THE
NEAR-SHORE MARINE ZONES IN THE ATLANTIC. NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY
BUT HAVE BEEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLD (GENERALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 KT).
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE DELMARVA COAST, HAS GENERATED LARGER SWELLS NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST
TODAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. BUOY 44009 HAS
REPORTED 5 FT WAVES SINCE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OF AROUND 12-14 SECONDS.

SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THIS EVE AS CRISTOBAL
IS ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SCA EXPIRES AT 6 PM THIS
EVE FOR THE WATERS IN DE AND EXTREME SRN NJ (SOUTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET), WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 FT BY
THIS EVE. THE SCA CONTINUES THRU 10 PM FARTHER NORTH UP THE NJ COAST
AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
5 FT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL
HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE
EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN





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