Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 160634

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
234 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

High pressure will build to our south during Sunday into Monday. A
cold front however is expected to drop into New York State and New
England Sunday night before lifting back to the north Monday night.
Another cold front is anticipated to arrive late in the week,
however it should move slowly through our region as low pressure
rides along it.



Patchy fog or low stratus formation is still possible around
sunrise with light winds and slowly rising dewpoints occuring.
However, this will quickly burn off by mid morning. With high
pressure just to our southwest we will be on the backside of this
high pressure system. As a result, another sunny day is expected
with an increase in southwesterly winds as well this afternoon to
between 5 and 10 mph. Boundary layer temperatures will respond
indicating surface temperatures could reach the mid 70`s. Modeled
two meter temperatures along with MET/MAV guidance are less
aggressive with the warmth today keeping most places in the low 70`s
for highs today. Will split the difference here on highs. Some
increase in mid and high level clouds are likely as the day goes
on with the approach of a weak cold front from the northwest.
Overall though, another nice day!



The cold front will move west to east across Southern New England
tonight. Operational model runs show an increase in cloudcover but
limited moisture for the front to work with across northern parts of
our region. Will keep only mention of isolated showers in the
forecast with very light qpf. LI values may approach 0 as well,
but given the very limited coverage of showers it is doubtful any
thunder is observed even with marginal instability. Lows will be
warmer with the southwest flow and clouds, in the 50`s for most.


A mid level short wave trough is forecast to pass over our region
on Sunday night. The feature is expected to bring a cold front
down into New York State and New England at that time. We are
expecting mid level clouds to advect over our region from the
northwest on Sunday night along with scattered showers. Both will
affect mainly eastern Pennsylvania and northern and central New
Jersey and they may not reach northeastern Maryland, Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

A mid level ridge is expected to build over the southeast and
Middle Atlantic states during the period from Monday through
Wednesday. The frontal boundary across New York and New England
should lift to the north and northeast on Monday night. We are
anticipating some clouds and showers mainly in our northern
counties on Monday. Otherwise, unseasonably warm air should build
into our region from the south and southwest for the early and
middle parts of the new week with no additional rain expected.

Temperatures are forecast to rise to about 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for Tuesday and Wednesday with some record high readings
possible. We have listed the record maximum temperatures in the
climate section below.

The mid level ridge is expected to move out over the Atlantic
late in the week allowing a trough to settle over the eastern
states. There remains a fair amount of difference in the details
between the model guidance. However, the general trend suggests an
increase in cloud cover along with a chance of rain. Temperatures
should begin to fall back near normal and perhaps even a bit


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

MVFR and IFR restrictions possible toward sunrise with the
development of low clouds and/or fog. Right now indications are most
TAF sites will stay VFR. The highest chances for restrictions are at
KMIV, KACY and KRDG. A broken MVFR stratus deck has already built
into KMIV and KACY already and this may hold throughout most of the
overnight. Any restrictions will lift by mid-morning.
VFR for the remainder of the day with southwest winds from 5-10 mph.

VFR conditions are expected tonight with southwest winds around 5
mph. An increase in mid and high level clouds is expected as well.
An isolated shower can not be ruled out for KRDG and KABE.

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers mainly
around KRDG, KABE and KTTN especially late Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. However, late night
and morning low clouds and fog are possible each day.



Waveheights are currently around three feet on the ocean and less in
Delaware Bay. Winds will generally be light (around 10 knots from
the southwest) with high pressure overhead. So no build up of seas
is anticipated through tonight. No headlines.

Sunday night through Tuesday morning...No marine headlines are

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night...Southwest winds may gust
near 25 knots.

Wednesday through Thursday...No marine headlines are anticipated.


The astronomical tides associated with the full moon will remain
rather high through Wednesday (especially the morning high tide
cycle). The general southwest flow that is expected to develop on
Sunday and persist into the middle of the new week should prevent
any significant positive tidal departures from developing. As a
result, we are anticipating nothing more than some spotty minor
tidal flooding during the period.


Here are the record high temperatures for Tuesday the 18th and
Wednesday the 19th.

                    TUE OCT 18       WED OCT 19

Mount Pocono, PA    84 in 1908       80 in 1963

Reading, PA         85 in 1908       84 in 1963

Allentown, PA       81 in 1963       82 in 1963

Trenton, NJ         82 in 1908       83 in 1963

Philadelphia, PA    85 in 1908       80 in 1947

Atlantic City, NJ   83 in 1908       80 in 1991

Wilmington, DE      81 in 1938       81 in 1963

Georgetown, DE      81 in 1996       81 in 1953

Based on the latest projections, the record for Tuesday should be
exceeded at Allentown, Trenton, Atlantic City, Wilmington and

Based on the latest projections the record for Wednesday should
be exceeded at Allentown, Philadelphia, Atlantic City, Wilmington
and Georgetown. The record may be tied at Reading and Trenton.




Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Iovino
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
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