Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG





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