Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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302
FXUS61 KPHI 220732
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Post Tropical cyclone Jose will continue to weaken and drift
off the southeast New England coastline through the weekend.
closer to home, High pressure will be centered to our north and
west through early next week. A cold front is expected to sweep
east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and our region on
Thursday of next week which will take Hurricane Maria northward
then northeast out to sea.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will remain about 275 miles
east of the New Jersey coast today. An area of rain showers
associated with the system was making a pass over the waters off New
Jersey early this morning. It should be the closest approach of any
precipitation to our region today. Any additional showers will
likely remain farther offshore.

Jose will continue to throw mainly high and mid level clouds back
over our region today. However, the clouds should not prevent the
sky from being partly to mostly sunny.

The wind should be from the north today increasing around 10 MPH.
Occasional gusts near 20 MPH are expected, mainly in the afternoon
from the Interstate 95 corridor eastward. The northerly flow is
forecast to bring lowering humidity levels to our region for today.
Dew point readings are anticipated to drop into the 50s.

Maximum temperatures will be mostly in the 80s as we greet the
arrival of autumn. The season changes at 4:02 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

Jose is forecast to begin drifting southeastward tonight as it
continues to weaken. The mid level ridge over the eastern half of
the country will bring dry conditions to our region for tonight.

We are expecting a light northerly wind with temperatures dropping
into the middle and upper 50s in our northern counties and into the
lower and middle 60s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Saturday through Monday:

With high pressure centered to our northwest sunshine will be ample
each day. Mid-level temperatures are still likely to be quite
warm for mid/late-September would would yield highs in the 80`s
for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the
60`s. Some locations are still looking to have a fairly good
shot at 90 Sunday and/or Monday. MAV/MET along with the ensemble
guidance sets are starting to catch on to the degree of the
anomalous warmth thanks to a PNA which will be near four
standard deviations below normal. Some previous indications in
modeling had Jose surviving a westward trip back toward the
region. However, this forecast follows the NHC forecast to keep
a much weaker Jose well away from our region.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Will continue with the slight shower chances for Tuesday through
Thursday as a small amount of moisture from Maria may move into
the region along with an approaching cold front by Thursday.

Stayed closer but still at or just a bit warmer than the mean
of the ensemble guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday given some
uncertainty with Maria. NHC/WPC forecast guidance currently
shows Maria remaining to our southeast and staying offshore
through the middle of next week. A cold front is likely to help
Steer Maria out to sea by the later part of next week. However,
trends should be watched because a slower approach of this front
could allow Maria to track closer to the coast. Stay tuned to
the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane
forecast for more information on Jose and Maria.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are forecast for our eight TAF sites through the TAF
period with one exception. Patchy fog may develop around KRDG along
the Schuylkill River during the early morning hours.

A northerly wind is expected to increase around 10 knots for today
with occasional gusts in the upper teens in the late morning and
afternoon. Wind speeds will likely diminish to 8 knots or less for
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...

A north to northwest wind is expected on our waters for today and
tonight. Speeds are anticipated to favor the 10 to 18 knot range.
There may be local gusts of 20 to 25 knots, especially on our
northern coastal waters.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will likely remain in the 4 to 7
foot range. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
there for today and tonight. Waves on Delaware Bay are forecast to
be 1 to 3 feet, perhaps around 4 feet near the mouth of the bay.


Outlook...

Seas are expected to remain above five feet throughout the outlook
period and the SCA was extended till 10z Sunday. Wavewatch is likely
being too aggressive in reducing swells and wave heights from Jose.
Additional swell and increased wave heights are likely by early next
week in association with Maria. Wind gusts are expected to be under
25 knots.

Rip Currents...

Long period swells of 4 to 6 feet emanating from Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose will continue to reach the coasts of Delaware and New
Jersey today. As a result, we will carry a high risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook:

Saturday...At least a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents and a good chance of high risk as Maria`s se swell
of 15 seconds builds to 2 or possibly 3 feet and those swells
are on a collision course with the leftover 9 or 10 second ne
swell from Jose. Its probably going to be rough water and bit
chaotic in the surf zone.

Sunday through Thursday are outlooked high risk days with the
greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, due to leftover
Jose swells combined with building arriving southeast swells of
15 seconds to between 8 and 10 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.
Breaking surf along the beach surf zone play area will probably
reach 7 feet, if not a little higher. That should be almost
double the size of the breakers that occurred this Thursday
afternoon.

So despite the very warm weather and still rather warm ocean
water temps (low-mid 70s), I wouldnt be swimming out there
unless you`re a certified lifeguard. The waters are going to get
rougher again, even with the distant passage of Maria next
week. Best practice: ankle deep at most and please dont put
would be rescuers at risk just because it might look safe.
Hopefully the sound of the surf will be enough notification of
its danger.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Water levels remain a bit high due to the effects of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose and the recent new moon. There is the potential for
localized minor flooding along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey
with this morning`s high tide. However, the flooding should not be
widespread or impactful enough to warrant a Coastal Flood
Advisory.

&&

.CLIMATE...

With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday
across the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or
broken. The highest chances are on Monday where all locations
but Georgetown are expected to be within three degrees of a
record.

Here are the records for both days.

Sunday

ACY-92(2010)
PHL 95(1970)
ILG-92(2010)
ABE-92(1970)
TTN-92(1970)
GED-97(2010)
RDG-95(1970)
MPO-85(2010)

Monday

ACY-91(1970)
PHL-92(1970)
ILG-93(1970)
ABE-92(1970)
TTN-92(1970)
GED-92(2010 and 1970)
RDG-92(1970)
MPO-85(1970)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gaines
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/Iovino
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...Gaines/Drag



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