Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 241400
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER NEW JERSEY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST AT THIS TIME, MAINLY
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND
WE MOSTLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LASTEST OBS
AND TRENDS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AND THAT TREND
WAS MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE, TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON
TRACK AFTER A CHECK OF THIS MORNING`S REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THE COLD
FRONT SITTING ACROSS WESTERN PA AT MID-MORNING WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD TODAY, AND ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY TO EVENING.

OTHERWISE, A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SRLY OR SERLY TODAY...AND THIS
WILL AID IN BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL...IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT STILL MORE SO
THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
N/W AND MID/UPPER 60S S/E. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE N/W AREAS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS S/E
OF THE DEL VALLEY WILL BE HELD ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...HIGHER CHC POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN AREAS WITH LESSER POPS OVER THE DELMARVA. AN OVERALL 1/10 TH TO
1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RATHER
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LIMITED CAPES. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE W LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN MOST AREAS WITH
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN MOST AREAS AND SOME LOW/MID 60S FAR NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE ANCHORED BY
A MID LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. IT WEAKENS BY THE
WEEKEND WITH A REMNANT TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN THE SOUTHEAST USA,
CONFLUENT WITH ZONAL FLOW OF SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.

TEMPERATURES:  CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOUT 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN WITHIN 2 OR 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/24
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/24 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0441Z/24 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAINFREE WEEK AFTER WHATEVER SHOWERS OCCUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MAYBE LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
COASTAL NJ...OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
SREF PWAT TO START THE DAY DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES I-95 CORRIDOR, LESS
TO THE WEST AND THEN DRIES TO 0.9 INCHES BY DAYS END. WINDS BECOME
MOSTLY WEST WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE? UPS CROSSOVER TOOL
USED GENERATE THE FOG IN NNJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WED-FRI...DIURNAL CU/SC AS A COOL POOL ARRIVES WITH THE TROUGHING
ALOFT AND TEMPS SEASONABLY COOL. MLCAPE ALMOST NIL. NO CHANGE IN
PRIOR EXPECTATIONS FROM YDYS DAY SHIFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SPRINKLES THERE. MEANWHILE, THE NIGHTS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS COMING WEEKEND...PARTLY SUNNY AND SLOWLY WARMING. A SMALL CHANCE
THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CROSSES THE REGION IN THE WAA PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. IF THIS SHOWER EVENT WERE TO OCCUR, IT
PROBABLY WOULD BE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOSTLY
FEW-SCT CU AND SOME SCT-BKN AC INCREASING THRU THE DAY. WINDS WILL
TEND TO BECOME MORE SRLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE MAY BE MORE
OF AN ONSHORE WIND AT KACY...MORE SO THAN INDICATED IN THE
TAF...CONFID IN A PURE SEA- BREEZE IS LIMITED.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS AROUND 05Z/06Z
THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD REACHING THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 10Z THEN THE
COAST PERHAPS AROUND 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING/WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PSBL THUNDER (LOW
CONFID...NOT IN TAFS). WINDS WILL SHIFT WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND IT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY
LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES DURING
THE MORNING AND MAINLY COASTS. BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z/26. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH DIURNAL SCT CLOUDS AOA
5000 FT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE EARLY TODAY BEFORE
A SRLY/SWRLY FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOPS ON THE WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING TO AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 10-12
KNOTS AND TURN MORE SRLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SVR TSTMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARDS
DAWN TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

JUST AN ESE 2 FT SWELL OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS ON THE ATLC WATERS
WITH A LITTLE WIND WAVE ON TOP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SHOULD BE LOW ENHANCED MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A LONGER PERIOD
SWELL EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG


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