Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 271437
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.

WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



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