Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 230136
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
936 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
Low pressure near the mid Mississippi Valley will race eastward
and it is forecast to pass over our region late on Thursday before
moving quickly out to sea. High pressure is expected to build from
the Great Lakes on Friday to the waters off southeastern Canada
for the weekend. The high is anticipated to influence our weather
into Monday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from
the northwest on Tuesday and should arrive in our region on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Quiet conditions this evening as a frontal boundary extends down
the east coast, across Virginia, and into the western Ohio Valley
and mid Mississippi Valley. This front is expected to begin
lifting northward as a warm front overnight and approach our
southern areas, while a couple of areas of low pressure move along
the front to our west. The cluster of showers and thunderstorms
currently across the southern Great Lakes is expected to be
moving through the Ohio Valley overnight, and push to our south
through daybreak. There remains the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to develop across our area around daybreak, north of
the main MCS, and continuing through the morning. It is also
possible that the northern edge of the MCS may clip our southern
counties as well.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any showers/tstms rolling through the area, or just south, during
the morning will move to the east by afternoon. More sct tstms are
possible after this, however the detail with regards to any
afternoon convection are uncertain attm. The SWODY2 outlook has
much of the central and srn areas in a slight risk for svr weather
tomorrow. We will mention this in the HWO and we have issued
another briefing package too. Rainfall totals with the convection
could top 1-2 inches in some areas.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It appears as though there will be some lingering shower and
thunderstorm activity in the southeastern part of our forecast
area on Thursday evening but it should move quickly out to sea on
Thursday night. The wind is expected to remain relatively light on
Thursday night so patchy fog is possible, especially in areas that
receive heavy rainfall on Thursday.
The mid level trough over eastern Canada and the western North
Atlantic should progress slowly to the east on Friday and Saturday
allowing a ridge to build overhead for Sunday. Another mid level
trough moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday should knock back
the ridge early in the new week.
At the surface, high pressure is expected to move from the Great
Lakes on Friday to the waters off southeastern Canada for the
weekend. The air mass should bring our region dry weather into
We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Monday
night into Wednesday as a slow moving cold front drifts toward
then into our region.
Daytime highs are anticipated to be mostly in the 80s from Friday
through Wednesday. Overnight lows will likely warm from the 50s
and lower 60s on Thursday night and Friday night to mainly the 60s
during the balance of the period.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions will continue through most of the overnight as our
area remain on the northern side of a frontal boundary extending
down the east coast, across Virginia, and into the western Ohio
Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Most showers/thunderstorms
associated with a thunderstorm complex are not expected to reach
the area until around daybreak, and may pass mostly south of the
Clouds will increase overnight as debris clouds from upstream
convection arrives overnight. West to southwest winds are expected
to become light and variable through the night for most areas.
Thursday...Clouds will continue to thicken and lower from west to
east around dawn and showers/tstms will overspread the area. The
heaviest and strongest storms may pass south of the area, or
affect the southern half of the area into the morning and early
afternoon. Wind directions are problematic with a weak low expected
to move along the warm front. Confidence is moderate to high for
morning and early afternoon tstms, so a couple of tempo groups
remain in the TAFS. You can expect some adjustments in the
timing/location as the event draws nearer. Behind the morning
tstms, probably mostly mvfr cigs before late afternoon clearing.
Thursday night...Mainly VFR. However, patchy fog may reduce the
ceiling and visibility into the MVFR or IFR category for a time at
Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Fair weather across the waters will continue through the night
before showers and tstms arrive Thursday. Marginal 4-5 ft seas at
the buoys will diminish through the night. We will not issue any
SCA flag at this time. Winds will periodically gust around 20
knots. Higher winds and seas are possible around any tstm
Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines are