Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 200834
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains across the southeast Gulf coast today,
then offshore tonight into Sunday. An area of low pressure will
move across eastern Canada today and tonight, before pulling a
back door cold front across the area by Sunday. Another area of
low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, pulling a cold front across the area. High pressure
will build toward the area late Wednesday through the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and into the Mid-
Atlantic remains in control. Meanwhile, low pressure passing
through southern Canada will drag a weak surface trough through
the region this afternoon. Zonal flow aloft will keep Arctic air
in Canada. Heights and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will rise
through the day, and west winds this afternoon may gust to 20
mph. This downsloping component will allow for a continued
warming trend today with highs some 5-10 degrees warmer today
than Friday.

Highs today will range from the low 40s in the Poconos, and in
the mid to upper 40s north and west of the Fall Line. For along
and south and east of I-95, highs will be in the low to mid 50s.
Southern portions of the Delmarva may come close to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control. Cirrus clouds will increase
as some weak mid-level shortwave energy passes through the
region. This will limit radiational cooling tonight, and much
warmer temperatures can be expected. Lows will range from the
mid 20s to the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather for early next week, followed by quiet
weather again for the middle to end of next week.

On Sunday, a back door cold front will sag toward our area from
the north, and is expected to sink across the area Sunday
night. Sunday is expected to remain dry for now, but clouds will
be on the increase through the day. As moisture increases
overnight, there may be some lift moving overtop of the front.
This may lead to some light rain/drizzle developing across the
area Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to drop below
freezing for portions of northern New Jersey and northeastern
Pennsylvania as some cold air gets dammed up. If any
precipitation does occur, this could lead to some light freezing
rain or drizzle overnight Sunday.

On Monday, low pressure will be moving through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. As this happens, the frontal boundary across
the area will try to lift northward as a warm front, but will
likely not make much progress as it remains dammed up across the
area. On Monday morning, there will likely remain some cold air
across the northern areas north of the boundary, so there could
remain some light freezing rain/drizzle. South of the front,
dry conditions will likely move back in and some clearing may
take place.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, a cold front is expected
to sweep across the area as an area of low pressure moves
through the Great Lakes region. This will lead to a period of
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight Monday into Tuesday. It is
possible that the rain could change over to snow across northern
New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania before the
precipitation ends Tuesday morning behind the cold frontal
passage.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday night, the low pressure system
moves across eastern Canada, while a secondary cold front moves
toward the area from the west, which may cross the area during
the day. Most of the area will remain dry, as any precipitation
is forecast to remain to our north. If there is any
precipitation, it would most likely occur across portions of
northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania. Gusty
conditions are expected on Wednesday as winds will be gusting at
least 25 to 30 mph.

High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday, leading to dry
conditions. Winds will be less gusty than Wednesday, around 15
to 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR/SKC. W-SW winds around 10 KT with gusts up to 20 KT
in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/BKN250. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...Sub-VFR conditions expected. Lowest conditions
across ABE, RDG, and TTN, which may drop to IFR. Improving
conditions possible for ACY and MIV later Monday. Light rain or
drizzle possible across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey. West winds may gust 15-20 knots. Low to Moderate
confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday..Conditions lower to IFR everywhere with
periods of rain associated with a frontal passage. Southeast
winds become westerly behind the front and begin gusting 25-30
knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds, becoming gusty
25-30 knots during the day Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Winds and seas should stay below SCA levels for DE Bay,
DE coastal ocean waters and far southern NJ coastal waters,
though gusts around 20 kt are possible. For central and northern
NJ coastal waters, a SCA remains in effect for today for wind
gusts to 25 kt.

Tonight...West winds gusting to 20 kt for the northern NJ
coastal ocean waters. Otherwise, west winds 10 kt or less.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels, but winds may periodically gust around 20 knots.

Monday night...Conditions expected to return to Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory level wind continue,
but may reach gale force.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS



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