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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240415
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE ON SUNDAY SPILLING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE BASICALLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN NJ, THE
ADJACENT WATERS AND SRN DE ATTM. EXPECT A FURTHER DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS PRECIP MOVES OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS ANOTHER AREAS OF PRECIP IN SRN MD, THAT COULD END
UP BRUSHING SRN DE IN A FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS,
EXCEPT FOR SRN AREAS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
WITH SOME TWEAKS. IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, AND SOME
LOCAL FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
AND IF SOME CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER ITS AXIS
IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD SUSTAIN OR ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND, WITH EVEN A DROP IN THE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES BEING
SQUEEZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW WHILE A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

WE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95,
WITH THESE LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, THEN
SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE.
THERE IS SOME REAMING INSTABILITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON THE NOSE OF AN ADVANCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND WEAKLY BUILDING HEIGHTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-60S
IN A LOT OF PLACES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH
A ZONALISH FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH THE HIGHER RIDGES COULD HEAT ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL CAP PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONG PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN, TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, SWINGS THROUGH
LATER ON MONDAY SLOWLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED PERIOD.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING, WEAKENING, A BIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. CURRENT SHWRS AND TSRA WERE GENLY
S OF TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FLOW OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL THE ZONES AND THEN
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER//NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/HEAVENER