Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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739
FXUS61 KPHI 081257
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
757 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to slowly drift across eastern
Canada today through Friday, and end up south of Greenland by
Saturday. With high pressure to our west, a strong west to northwest
flow will remain through the end of the week. High pressure briefly
affects the area Saturday night, then moves offshore Sunday. A warm
front is expected to lift across the area Sunday night, before an
area of low pressure is forecast to move near or just north of the
area around Monday. This system will pull a cold front across the
area Monday, then another quick moving frontal boundary may move
across the area around Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM update: went to isolated and sct showers Delmarva per GFS/HRRR,
NSSL WRF and GGEM .01 this morning. raised gusts throughout by 5
kt this afternoon as skies clear away the considerable morning
cloudiness (multi model tsections), low lvl lapse rates steepen
and the pres gradient tightens.

From the 617 am discussion below:

Across the region: Northwesterly flow will be increasing through
the day today in response to an increasing pressure gradient as
the positively tilted trough continues to progress east. For most
of the region, this will mean little more than breezy and cooler
conditions through the day today. Temperatures today will be
around 5 degrees lower than yesterday (in other words, near or
slightly below normal). The Southern Poconos and NW NJ though may
see flurries mid day into the early afternoon if lake effect snow
showers are able to propagate this far south and east. A negating
factor will be the dry air advection that we have already seen, so
no accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Colder air will continue to settle in over the region thanks to the
continued northwesterly flow (and associated cold air advection).
The pressure gradient across the region will continue to increase as
the trough moves further east, so winds are not expected drop off
much overnight. This will mean we won`t have efficient radiational
cooling conditions, but given the cold air advection, lows tonight
will as much as 10 degrees lower than what we will see this
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to drift across eastern Canada Friday, then
moves offshore and ends up south of Greenland by Saturday. Meanwhile
high pressure remains across the central part of the country. This
will keep a steady west to northwest flow across the area. On
Friday, although the strong vorticity impulse is expected to be east
of the area, there will remain steep low-mid level lapse rates
across the area with enhanced moisture as well. With the strong
northwest flow, it is possible that some lake effect streamers could
set up and bring some snow showers/flurries to portions of the area.
The best chances would be across the northern portions of the area,
so we keep scattered/isolated snow showers/flurries there. Elsewhere
we will keep isolated flurries/sprinkles. On Saturday, the steep
lapse rates and moisture combination lifts northward some. We`ll
keep isolated snow showers/flurries for the far northern counties,
but will keep flurries/sprinkles for the middle half of the area as
the northwest flow begins to weaken some, so the flurries may not
have as great of a reach southward as on Friday. While most areas
probably won`t see much snow accumulation Friday and Saturday, if
any snow bands or squalls do develop, it would not be surprising
to see some accumulating snow in some areas.

High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday night, providing dry
conditions. Friday and Saturday will be a cold and windy period,
with Friday being the windiest, and Saturday being the coolest of
the two.

The high builds offshore Sunday ahead of the next storm system. As
this happens, it is possible that some showers could develop
during the day across the area as a short wave passes just to our
north and spreads an area of moisture across the area. However,
the best chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into
Monday. A warm front is forecast to lift across the area late on
Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure is forecast to
move near or just north of the area. Conditions should be cold
enough overnight Sunday into Monday for a period of snow to affect
a good portion of the area, before much of the area warms up and
precipitation turns to rain during the day Monday. There is the
potential for an accumulating snow for much of the area, with the
northern half having the greatest potential. As the low continues
to lift northward, a cold front is expected to move across the
area late in the day Monday and overnight. Precipitation chances
should diminish behind the cold front.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, the GFS is indicating another cold
front moving across the area as low pressure passes to our north.
It in turn brings a period of rain and snow to the area late Tuesday
into early Wednesday. The ECMWF does not have as strong of a cold
frontal passage, so it does not bring any precipitation to the area.
For now, we`ll introduce a small chance into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR cigs aoa 4000 ft this morning becoming sct clouds this
afternoon. scattered brief shower for an hour or two near and south
of KMIV later this morning. west wind with gusts increasing 22 to
28 kt during mid afternoon.

Tonight...VFR mostly clear. wnw wind with scattered gusts 15 kt
possible.

Friday...Generally VFR, although CIGS may occasionally lower to
MVFR. Scattered flurries possible which may be responsible for
briefly lower conditions. Gusty west to northwest winds 22-30
knots.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night - Saturday...Generally VFR, although CIGS may
occasionally lower to MVFR. Scattered showers or
flurries/sprinkles are possible during the daytime of each day
which may temporarily lower conditions. Gusty west to northwest
winds 15-25 knots, strongest winds Friday which may approach 30
knots at times.

Sunday...VFR early, possibly lowering to MVFR by the afternoon. Rain
or snow possible late in the day.

Sunday night-Monday...Conditions continue to lower to MVFR and then
IFR. Rain or snow becoming likely. Accumulating snow possible for
eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, and the northern portions
of the Delmarva.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase around midday today for what will be a prolonged
small craft advisory event.

Considering a gale warning for at least lower De Bay and adjacent
453, 54, 55 for the prd 21z today - 11z Friday. Am pretty sure we`ll
see mid 30 kt gale gusts some time late today or this evening. The
wind orientation down De Bay, steep lapse rates possibly manufactures
several more kts of wind than modeled in the caa pattern. NAM
sounding indicates mid 30s gales possible.

May need a marginal mid 30s gale for the remainder NJ waters 10z
Friday - 06z Saturday but no decision until late today.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday...Small Craft Advisory in effect through
Friday night, which may need to be extended into Saturday. Winds
may approach gale force at times on Friday.

Saturday night...Winds expected to drop below Small Craft Advisory
levels, but pick up again late Sunday.

Sunday-Sunday night...Winds may increase and approach Small Craft
Advisory levels at late in the day into the overnight.

Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 757
Short Term...Johnson 757
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 757
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson 757



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