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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON