Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 231101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT
WILL NOT HELP MUCH TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN IS STARTING TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
SPOTTY AND STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA







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