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000
FXUS61 KPHI 030836
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA
THURSDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD FORM ON THE FRONT FRIDAY, THEN
IT MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND BECOME ANCHORED IN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN A STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR THE POCONOS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY SKIES WILL START THE DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA, BEFORE THE CLOUDS LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA.

SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE DAY AND
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY ACROSS MANY AREAS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE WAS USED
FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY ONLY HELP TO INCREASE SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT/THIS MORNING. A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH/WEST LATER WED AFTERNOON. POPS
FOR THIS ARE ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE...WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS HOLDING OFF ON ANY MEASURABLE QPF UNTIL WED
NIGHT. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WED AND INTO THU AS UPPER
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD. HIGHS WED MOSTLY LOW 50S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. READINGS THU WILL BE EVEN MILDER WITH LOW 60S
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MUCH OF SRN NJ AND MID/UPPER 50S NORTH. POPS
WILL HAVE INCREASED INTO THE CHC RANGE THU NORTH AND SLGT CHC SOUTH
AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP LOW MOVING THROUGH CANADA.

A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL APPROACH THU NIGHT AND SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION FRI. ITS TOUGH NOT TO BUY THE WPC`S UPPER CHC LOW
LIKELY POPS FRO THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...CONSIDERING HOW MOST OF
THE OP MODELS HAVE A DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S FRI AND BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SAT WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 40S SOUTH AND REMAINING IN THE 30S NORTH. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FRI NIGHT/SAT...WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.

A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATER SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE LARGE HIGH TO
THE NORTH EDGES ACROSS THE REGION. A WAVE IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST
EC/GFS MODELS APPROACHING SUN AND SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MORE LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THESE PERIOD.
AGAIN...THE ONSET MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. CONFID
IN P-TYPE TIMING RATHER LOW ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES IN
THE MVFR RANGE. THIS FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT BEGIN TO
BURN OFF AS THE SUN COMES UP. WITH THE CLEAR/CALM AIR, ACY HAS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPED LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND SHOULD HELP LIFT/DISSIPATE THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS HERE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A LITTLE
HAZY TODAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ONCE
THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. ONCE THIS FOG BURNS OFF, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, PICKING UP A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS PSBL NORTH/WEST
LATER WED NIGHT.
THU/FRI NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SOME -SN PSBL LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.
SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY S/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA.
THU THRU FRI...LOW END SCA CONDITION ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS ON DEL BAY.
SAT...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW OFF THE COAST HAS PRODUCED
ENOUGH OF A PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TO CAUSE TIDES TO RISE ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL FORECASTS. THIS PUSH ALONG WITH ALREADY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE NEW MOON COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-
     014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...