Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230033
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
833 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER, SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, TRACKING FROM AROUND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MORE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
INFLUENCE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...A
TREND TOWARD MORE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NRN/WRN AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

CHILLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NW OF
THE FALL LINE, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER.
HOWEVER, FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS WINDS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE
10KT AND SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY CLEAR. THEREFORE, HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY FROST FOR BERKS AND WESTERN CHESTER UP
THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR FREEZE WARNINGS, EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE, THE ONLY PLACES THAT LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ARE IN
THE POCONOS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY, WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MID DAY
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM KEEPING WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS, THERE
WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THE FRONT TODAY AND THE FRONT TOMORROW,
HIGHS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S, AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT FROST OR FREEZE RELATED HEADLINES IN PA AND NJ WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE ALL OF OUR NORTHERN
CWA EXCEPT FOR THE POCONOS.

INTO FRIDAY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND TEN
DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST GRADUALLY SPREADS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RATHER BRISK WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WINDS FOR A
TIME GUSTING TOWARD 25 TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, BUT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MORE POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE EDGING EAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH,
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
FOR OUR DELMARVA ZONES AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO SEA RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF SUNDAY, LEAVING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FOR OUR
AREA WITH QUIET CONDITIONS, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW.

GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO DIVERGE MORE,
LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEXT POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. AN OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AS A MID/UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF, GFS, AND OTHERS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
MID/UPPER LOW, AND THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN CWA. THE MAIN DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO WATCH, THOUGH, WILL BE A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE EVEN GREATER
MODEL DIFFERENCES, WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS SHOWING STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
EVENTUALLY TRACKING TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO MIDWEEK,
WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FROM AROUND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS, HOWEVER, IS BEGINNING TO TREND
MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF, WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK
LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY EMERGES MORE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THE GFS
MAY BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK-WISE, THERE ARE STILL
NOTICEABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

DESPITE THE RATHER LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK, AND
WE HAVE OPTED FOR CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-
BKN CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS FAR
N/W. LIGHT-MODERATE W WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF A KILG/KACY LINE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IS PASSING EAST OF THE
WATERS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CROSS THROUGH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...FROM EARLIER...ARE NO LONGER
OCCURRING...BUT WE WILL STILL KEEP A SCA FLAG FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT, AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT (ON THE
OCEAN) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MORE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
THURSDAY...WHILE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-SCA ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE FELT ON
THE AREA WATERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AS WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY...CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AT THIS POINT, EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BE RIGHT
AT OR JUST ABOVE 30 PERCENT. SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL. HOWEVER, RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT,
GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SO FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT QUICKLY TOMORROW, AND WHILE WE MAY NOT QUITE REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA TOMORROW, THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WORSE CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS MAY BE ENHANCED ON FRIDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY`S RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO DROP POSSIBLY BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS FOR A TIME
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO
20 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH GUSTS REACHING
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATE WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS IF
ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...


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