Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 200326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1126 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING FROM NEW YORK CITY TO WASHINGTON DC
WILL MOVE OFF THE COASTS BY DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CFP IN PROGRESS WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20 MPH AND RAPIDLY
LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY MORNING. REFRESHING AIR COMING.

WEDNESDAY...BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH AN FEW SC IN THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS
ALMOST 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VALUES OF TUESDAY AND DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN OUR REGION WITH A FEW
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THURSDAY`S WEAK LOW IN NORTH CAROLINA AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR
WEATHER. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY BEFORE CLEARING GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE FORECAST IMPACTS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MAY SHIFT A LITTLE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON
FRIDAY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD
BE PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO WE WILL FORECAST FEW CLOUDS AND NO RAINFALL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
COAST LATE ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BRING OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO,
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF BOTH BOUNDARIES REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, FIVE AND SIX DAYS REMOVED.
HOWEVER, WE WILL INDICATE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...WSHIFT FM SW TO NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT SC DURING THE AFTN AOA
4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN CIGS AOA 10000 FT
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM
KILG, KMIV AND KACY SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH A WSHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND
GUSTY 20 KT. GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AFTER 3
AM WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY TO NEAR 20 KT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 20 KT TURN N-NE AND
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...WE`LL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND DRY FINE FUELS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT MINIMUM RH`S ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30-40% RANGE.

ALSO, WIND GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE AT THAT TIME IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
**TOP 10 WARMEST MAY APPEARS LIKELY IN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA**

THE FIRST 19 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE AVERAGING WITHIN
ABOUT 1/2 DEGREE OF 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE AND FORECAST DETERMINISTICALLY CONSERVATIVE
INCLUDING OUR 330 PM MAY 19 PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE 26TH AND THEN
THE CONSERVATIVE FTPRHA THEREAFTER THROUGH THE 29TH AND NORMAL THE
30TH AND 31ST...OUTLOOKS A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY ON RECORD.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...POR TO 1874. PROJECTING AN AVG TEMPS OF 68.7
OR NEARLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (4.8) AND 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD.
WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004.

FOR ALLENTOWN...POR TO 1922. PROJECTING 65.0 OR 5.1 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.  WARMEST WAS 67.2 IN 1991.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER/KRUZDLO 1127P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO 1127P
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/KRUZDLO 1127P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/KRUZDLO 1127P
FIRE WEATHER...


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