Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 201932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NJ COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH...WHICH IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES ITSELF INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE FLOW WON`T BE TOO STRONG...AND A BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN EASTERN
PA FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW AND SEABREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BIT OF RIDGING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT THAT TIME BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT 90. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY STABLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
AROUND 18C. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE
90S. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH
AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A
CAP MAY INITIALLY PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY TO WORK ITS
WAY THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER
DELMARVA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR
90 IN THE SOUTH.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY SHOULD
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THR 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NJ
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING ITSELF OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WEAKEN AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST
PART. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY NEAR RDG AND MIV. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR WESTERN AIRPORTS, BUT POPS
AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM KILG, KPHL AND KTTN NORTHWESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 7PM THIS
EVENING. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ROSE TO 6.6 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED AND
THE FETCH ORIENTED ITSELF JUST RIGHT RELATIVE TO THE COASTLINE.
WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN MARGINAL. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/MIKETTA





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