Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.