Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN
BECOME SWRLY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE
HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH,
IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING
THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE.
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.

WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW
INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR"
(HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL,
NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     6/27    JUNE         NORMAL    RANK    WETTEST

ILG     1894    2.17    12.46        3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874    2.37*    8.04        2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922    0.86     7.02        3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872    1.34     7.23        3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

*ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH
WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH,
CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY
AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA
CLIMATE...FRANCK



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