Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IS LOCATED UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE, ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE EARLY
MORNING.

A BAND OF STRATOCU FROM ABOUT RDG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PHL AND MIV HAS
BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE SO FAR THIS EVENING BUT OVER THE LAST HOUR
LATEST SATELLITE AND AUTOMATED SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUDS SCOURING OUT
AS DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET
STREAK WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO RADIATE EFFECTIVELY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS
IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ TO NEAR 30F IN COASTAL AND URBAN LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT PASSES OFF THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT, AS WELL. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE TOWARD EVENING, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AT THAT TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S FOR FRIDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
EAST COAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE TREND WITH REGARDS TO THE LATEST
MODELS ARE TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM A BIT QUICKER...AND BRING SOME
WARMER AIR FURTHER TO THE WEST SOONER. THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA SAT MORNING AND IT WILL TRACK QUICKLY NE THROUGH THE DAY.
PCPN WILL SPREAD NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z SAT
INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN FURTHER NE
OVERNIGHT. P-TYPE OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOME FZRA AT FIRST...THEN
WARMER AIR WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW DURING THE DAY SAT.
OUR SNOW TOTALS ARE ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL...AS THE PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT WE HAVE TRIMMED TOTALS MOSTLY S/E OF I-95. WE DISCUSSED
ADVISORIES WITH NEARBY OFFICES...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD FOR NOW WITH
THE ACCUMS HAPPENING WELL INTO THE 3RD PERIOD. OVERALL 2-4 ACROSS
THE CHESTER PA UP NE INTO SOMERSET COUNTY NJ...LESSER S. THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND EXTREME N NJ MAY ESCAPE THE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO ADVISORIES MAY NOT BE NEEDED THERE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NJ EARLY SAT NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND
HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SOUTH AND
LOW/MID 30S NORTH.

SUN NIGHT THRU EARLY TUE...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RACES
TOWARD THE AREA SUN THEN SLOWS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVING ALONG WITH IT SO SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE BY MON MORNING AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WE`LL UPDATE
THE FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ANY POSSIBLE ACCUM TOTALS AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

TUE NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA. DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL
BE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU SCATTERS OUT. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT ACY THIS EVE BUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL.

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM BUT NOT VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z/18Z NAM RUNS WERE OUTLIERS IN
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER MOIST, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATOCU TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR CIGS 1500-2500 FT.

FRIDAY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS IS FORECAST INTO THIS
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW/SLEET AND RAIN
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL (2 INCHES).

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW. MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
 SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. SCA CONDITIONS BY DAWN.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA





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