Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 270756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 330 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY
TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES
OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, WE DO NOT
ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND THE LATE
START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO
INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. AGAIN,
SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS
WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 1300Z AND 1400Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KRDG AND KABE THIS MORNING.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN,
KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING IS FORECAST
FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND KILG,
KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 AM ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AND UNTIL NOON FOR OUR WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD TO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS SOME TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FEET.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO



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