Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 241933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LEADING
TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S, AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS DAYTIME
MIXING OCCURS. AS WE MIX THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRAFT WITH ADJUSTMENTS AT 330 PM WHENEVER THE HIGH RES ECMWF ARRIVES.

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ. WATCHES
 WILL BE EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF THE I-95 INTERSTATE CORRIDOR**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 210M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES: MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WET BULBING OCCURS
IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT A HARD FREEZE SUBSEQUENT TO THE
SNOW.

POPS: TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z/24 NCEP MOS
THEN THAT BLENDED WITH THE 09Z/24 SREF AND 00Z-12Z ECMWF 6 HR QPF
INDICATIONS OF .10 OR GREATER.

LANCE HAS D4-8 AND HIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED
BY 330 PM AS THIS DISCUSSION.

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER WARMTH AND IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BEGIN AS RAIN MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
WEST OF I-95. NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING
N-NE TOWARD MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.


COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW
RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE
IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM
I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

ALL TAF SITES HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHERE
IFR CIGS REMAIN, THROUGH AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR ACY AS WELL. AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS, WE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING AND LIFTING, WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS
MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDITION RAIN SOUTH OF PHL
AFTER 06Z/26. LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING NNE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO
15 KT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR VARIABLE IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY
SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT BE DIMINISHED TO A FEW FLURRIES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NO SNOW AT KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 330PM.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE DELAWARE
BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AS DAYTIME PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.

ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING NW TO N WIND WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORDS HAVE OCCURRED. DETAILS IN THE RER`S.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE
REACH THIS VALUE.

ACY: 77 12/7/1997
PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
ILG: 75 12/4/1998
ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL
TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO)
GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR)
RDG: 77 12/29/1984
MPO: 67 11/29/1990

REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 232
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 232
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON 232
CLIMATE...232






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