Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF. THE HRRR CONTINUES
THE DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM VCNTY KRDG
HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 641 PM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 641PM
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.