Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 300120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS WELL EAST OF
OUR COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THOUGH DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY ARE EXPECTED TO END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO THIN FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DRYING NEAR THE
SURFACE THOUGH WAS HALTED FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS WENT
CALM. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER THINNED OUT QUICKER. A PUSH OF DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT, ANY FOG SHOULD TEND TO BE LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO OUR WEST TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FIELDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO GENERALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. A SHOWER LINGERING NEAR KMIV AND KACY ON SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST, WITH
SOME AREAS HAVING A CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT KRDG AND KABE, AND POSSIBLY
KMIV LATER.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CEILING DEVELOPS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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