Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 270437
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1237 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is anchored over the western Atlantic through this
weekend while low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas moves
northwest toward South Carolina. A cold front will organize over
the Great Lakes early next week passing through our region by the
middle of the week. The low pressure system near the southeast
United States coast may linger there most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: Overnight...variable cloudiness. Showers have increased
in coverage and intensity since about 1150 pm over east central PA
and now have 40-50 pop for sct shower coverage with slight chance
of a tstm over much of e central and ne PA into nw NJ through about
3AM. PWAT increasing considerably in this weak waa pattern and so
showers may easily dump .2 to .4 inches in 15 minutes on a few
locations. Otherwise temps and dews modified somewhat overnight...
interestingly enough, lowered dews near I95. Temps well above
normal...mins 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Light south wind.

Friday...Very warm and more humid with a potential for D2 of 90F
temps at KABE/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KACY/KGED/KESN. Depends on how much
sunshine. Best chance for 90F temps is near and north of I-78
possibly extending down to KPHL? Airmass is as warm as ydy with
higher dewpoints. More cloud cover may make it more difficult to
maximize heat potential. South to southwest wind with afternoon
gusts 15 mph. Convection: Possible..more details at 330 am or
sooner. PWAT about 1.7" for a 571 1000-5000 thickness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Fair and mild. Any convection should diminish and end by midnight. Much
more detail at 330 am.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: High pressure will be firmly in place
over the region. Subsistence from the high pressure will prevent
normal pop-up afternoon thunderstorm formation both days except in
the higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. A
gradual tick upward with humidity is expected, making it feel even
more like summer. High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees
warmer than met/mav with overnight lows climbing due to the
increased humidity.

Memorial Day: A low pressure system is likely to be located just off
the Southeast United States coastline. With a broad mid-level ridge
just offshore moisture is likely to be transported northward along
the eastern seaboard. Some uncertainty is present with this low
potentially become tropical. The National Hurricane Center currently
has a 70% chance of this forming into a sub-tropical or tropical
system between today and early next week.

While any tropical impacts would be well south of the region, the
moisture interaction with lift along an approaching cold frontal
boundary. This will lead to a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. PW values are also
modeled to approach 2 inches along with a modeled long-skinny CAPE
profile both also suggesting the prospects for heavy downpours with
thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be kept down as well due to
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

Monday night through Tuesday night: The cold frontal boundary will
likely continue to be close to the region and serve as a focal point
for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially
moving through by Tuesday. With the more scattered coverage of the
showers and storms, daytime temperatures will rebound a bit on
Tuesday after a muggy start.

Wednesday and Thursday: Another low pressure system and cold front
will move into the Central Plains with our region in the warm sector
with high pressure to the northeast. However, mid level temperatures
look cooler than with the warm-up this weekend. Forecast close to
WPC guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning through 12z...VFR with scattered showers through
about 06z or 07z vcnty KRDG/KABE. Light south to southwest wind.

Today after 12z...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest
wind gusting around 15 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower
or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage
of any convection.

Tonight...VFR. Light south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday: Mainly VFR, southerly winds 5-10 knots
with gusts around 15 knots Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Isolated thunderstorms possible for KABE.

Sunday night through Monday night: MVFR/IFR ceilings possible.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms, the highest chance of
thunderstorms is on Monday. Southerly winds up to 15 knots.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, winds under 15 knots. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Friday night.

Southerly flow persists...at times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas generally
1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights will probably be used
for the 330AM forecast.


OUTLOOK...
No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Gaines
Near Term...Drag 1237A
Short Term...Drag/Iovino 1237A
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Drag/Gaines 1237A
Marine...Drag/Gaines 1237A



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