Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 161902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A NICE
AFTN WITH NW GUSTS 15 MPH AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE SAME OR A COUPLE
WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND 50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER
TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REREVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 301
SHORT TERM...DRAG 301
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 301
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 301
RIP CURRENTS...





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