Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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908
FXUS61 KPHI 011802
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today, cross the region
tonight and move offshore overnight. High pressure will then build
in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area late Monday or Tuesday. Low pressure
forms along the frontal boundary and moves east, passing just
south of the area late Tuesday. High pressure then returns for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM: Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire CWA
until 10 pm.

1230 PM ESTF plan: minor adjustments in the forecast...mainly
raising dewpoints. Forecast looks essentially on track.

Storm complex now off of Fenwick Island had two reports of 60+kt
winds near Crisfield VA earlier this morning.

this afternoon...becoming partly sunny, very warm and humid.
southwest wind gust 15-20 mph. convection develops in 1000-1400JMLC
with TT 50+ and KI to 35+, 0-6KM bulk shear 35KT. While scattered
groups of showers and thunderstorms can occur at anytime this
afternoon, we think the most organized activity-short bowing line
segments, with torrential rainfall driven damaging wind (wet microburst)
will occur mainly I-95 west and mainly late in the day-evening.

The fact that KACY had a 29 kt 19 min shower that produced .32 is
an indicator of the vast potential for late this afternoon and
evening. Plan on some gully washing, brief travel delays with
isolated gusts near 50kt, lightning strikes and possibly large
hail.

NO SPS for timing since I didn`t want to lose focus on any strong
activity that may precede the 4Pm to 10 PM line segments.

PWAT probably near 1.7" this afternoon.

Potential exists for isolated 90F PHL southwestward to near KESN.

Tonight after 8 PM...after line segments multi cellular storm
groups die out and advance off the coast, models have been
consistent on clearing conditions quickly behind the cold front
which should be offshore by 09z. Depending how quickly the clouds
clear and if the winds decouple, patchy dense fog may form. More
details at 3 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Sunny start with some afternoon cirrus. A beautiful day with a
northwest wind of 15-20 mph. PWAT down to .65 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday night and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the
weekend as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold
front drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary
will act as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current
guidance keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect
our region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push
a little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday...Low pressure forms along the stalled boundary as it starts
to lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The low will remain
just to the south of the area is it makes its way towards the coast,
passing off the coast late Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible through Tuesday, ending Tuesday night.


Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure builds down from the north
for the midweek period. Mainly dry weather is expected at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Cigs 1500-3000 FT at 16z continue lifting to sct-bkn clouds
aoa 4000 ft by 18z. south to southwest wind with gusts 15-20 kt
by 19z. Thunderstorms with brief ifr conditions and westerly wind
gusts of 35 to 45 kt will develop this afternoon and pass by many
of the taf sites between 21z/1 and 03z/2.

Tonight...VFR with sct strong thunderstorms ending/moving off the
coast by 06z/2. Patchy IFR stratus/fog can develop toward 09z/2.

Saturday...VFR. cirrus in the afternoon. northwest wind gust 15-20
kt.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible, mainly south and west of KPHL.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR conditions expected with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. IFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should generally remain below SCA criteria this
afternoon through Saturday. There may be a period of southerly
gusts near 23 kt along the Monmouth/northern Ocean county coasts
this afternoon. An ese swell of 2.5 ft may be surpassed by a
southerly swell of 3 feet tonight, then tomorrow we drop back to
the seasonally persistent and normal se swell of 2.5 feet.

Our 1015 am beach patrol conference call revealed some patchy
dense fog on the beaches in NJ with an LBI update of fog at
1150am.

Thunderstorms late today or this evening will probably be associated
with 30-45 kt westerly wind gusts.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and again
Monday/Tuesday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

For what its worth...GFS guidance is stating max seas this period
at or below 3 feet. That is pretty nice for fishermen especially.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft 7sec
se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting a
LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the new
moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is average.
In other words, caution is advised when using a projection this
far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height expectation
and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily change the
potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for at least the next 5 days so
that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or at worst, moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers. Additionally,
bypassing the safety net of lifeguard patrols has netted a
pronounced increase in fatalities with our NWS Storm Data
statistics showing the preponderance of rip current related
drownings from near the dinner hour to sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Allentown`s 1.87 inches for the month of June made this the 10th
driest June in the Allentown period of record dating back to 1922.
The driest june on record was .34 inches in June 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag/Johnson
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Meola/O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola/O`Hara
Climate...



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