Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 201409
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm Jose will move slowly north and northeastward well
offshore through tonight. High pressure will slowly build eastward
tomorrow into the region and become firmly established for the
remainder of the week into early next week. Jose will continue to
meander well offshore through the weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

The center of Tropical Storm Jose was located about 250 miles
east of Atlantic City at 10 AM this morning. This system will
drift slowly to the northeast through the day.

Northerly winds around the circulation of Jose will generally be
in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts 20 to 25 mph (except lower
across far southern and western locations in the CWA).

Updates with the 930 AM ESTF were focused on cloud cover and
PoPs. Visible satellite imagery shows the western edge of the
dense cloud cover from Jose from ACY-TTN-FWN with most locations
to the west experiencing sunshine. There was a separate area of
thicker mid-level clouds moving southward into eastern Maryland.
The HRRR continues to indicate the development of a weak
convergence zone near the Delaware Valley mid to late afternoon.
Opted to keep PoPs at 10 percent and add isolated sprinkles in
lieu of showers.

Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be mostly in the lower and
middle 80s which is about 8 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Jose is expected to continue drifting to the northeast for tonight.
The sky over our region is forecast to become partly cloudy. The
north to northwest wind is anticipated to diminish to 5 MPH or less
at most locations. Low temperatures should favor the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday through Friday night:

Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our
region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and
west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Winds
will ease on Thursday as Jose continues to move away.

Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm
for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good
portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. MAV/MET in
better alignment with this now.

Saturday through Tuesday:

Ensemble guidance has had a reverse trend the last couple of cycles
with more members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites showing a
much weaker Jose making a loop back to the southwest by early next
week. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-
level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the
remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go
with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east
enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region.

Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through
early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four
standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous
warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance may still
be playing catch up to the pattern that is expected to occur. Highs
were raised a couple of degrees for the weekend from the ensemble
mean with a few locations making a run close to 90 on Sunday. Stayed
closer to the mean of the ensemble guidance for early next week
given the increased uncertainty.

If Jose were to trend back to the southwest, more clouds along
with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted
would occur. Uncertainty also revolves around the interaction of
Jose with Hurricane Maria and any potential impacts to our area
by the early to middle part of next week. Stay tuned to the
latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane
forecast for more information on Jose and Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR today. However, may see a brief period of MVFR CIGs late
this morning at ACY.

A northerly wind around 10 to 15 knots today is expected to diminish
to 8 knots or less for tonight. The wind direction may begin to back
toward the northwest at that time.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 7-15
knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough early Thursday morning
for KRDG, KABE and KMIV.

Friday through Sunday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for the coastal Atlantic waters. A north to
northwest wind on our ocean waters 15-25 knots will diminish to
10-15 knots this afternoon, then around 10 knots for tonight.
However, wave heights will remain high due to Tropical Storm
Jose. Waves on our ocean waters are 7-10 feet this morning and
is expected to subside to 5 to 7 feet this afternoon and to 4 to
6 feet tonight.

We will keep the SCA for the lower bay until 4 PM, mainly for
wind gusts and waves this morning and simply for waves this
afternoon. It should take until late afternoon for the wave
heights near the mouth of Delaware Bay to drop below 5 feet.

Outlook...

Seas will remain above five feet through the entire outlook
period given the proximity of Jose on the coastal waters.

Rip Currents...

Tropical Storm Jose will continue to push swells toward the coasts
of Delaware and New Jersey today. As a result, there remains a high
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today.

The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with waves
subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long- period
swells from Hurricane Maria may arrive this weekend, which could
raise the risk to high again.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have come down about 1/2 to 3/4 ft (anomalies
are currently 1.25-1.75 ft above astronomical) since peaking
last night, which is enough to prevent another round of moderate
coastal flooding from occurring across the area with the
ongoing high tide cycle this morning. Accordingly, the Coastal
Flood Warning for Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties in
New Jersey and for Sussex and Kent Counties in Delaware have
been cancelled and replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory. The
Coastal Flood Advisory also includes the central NJ coastline
and Raritan Bay as well as coastal areas along the Delaware Bay.
The Coastal Flood Advisory was also extended into tonight for
the abovementioned areas to cover the subsequent high tide
cycle this evening.

We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today or tonight`s
high tide along the Delaware River upstream from the Commodore
Barry Bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake
Bay.

The potential for minor tidal flooding around the times of high tide
will likely linger into tonight and Thursday, and perhaps even into
Friday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
DE...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gaines
Near Term...Iovino/Klein
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino/Klein
Marine...Gaines/Iovino/Klein
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Klein



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