Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 161153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
739 AM ESTF UPDATE TO UPDATE THE POPS FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL EVENT
MUCH OF NJ BETWEEN NOW AND 930AM. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 845 AM FOR
THE BACKEDGE ENDING.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING OVER NJ AT 7AM WHERE GREATEST PRES FALLS IN
THE NE USA.

MAY NEED TO ADD MORE SKYCOVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT
MOISTURE DEPOSITION FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS. TSECTIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING NJ AND LEAVING
KPHL AREA. OTRW VFR CIGS. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 11Z SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE
CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1
FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 753
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 753
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
RIP CURRENTS...






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.