Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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714
FXUS61 KPHI 092247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE
SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO WHERE A
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BURST OF SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT. THE MORE
PRONOUNCED LIFT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED BACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, DESPITE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS JUST BEEN TO WARM AND THAT IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SOME RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF DELMARVA. THERE ARE
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THIS MAY BE
SOME SLEET OR LARGE WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE MAY
BE CANCELLED IF TRENDS HOLD IN SHIFTING MORE OF THE SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
CHESTER COUNTY AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING THERE,
HOWEVER WE MAY VERY WELL FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA IN DELAWARE
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG



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