Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 280732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING TODAY, THEN ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN
IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A SECONDARY LOW WAS LOCATED OVER DELAWARE
AND VICINITY AROUND 330 AM. THE SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY LOW. AS A RESULT, THE FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT
CAUSED THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

THE WIND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE SECONDARY LOW PASSES OVER OUR REGION. A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. ALSO, THE LOW OVERCAST THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK
WITH THE SKY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHEASTWARD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S IN THE POCONOS TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT. DRYING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON A WESTERLY WIND. THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST THAT MAY
FLATTEN OUT SOME DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A TROUGH
PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH VARYING AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH EVEN
SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING TUESDAY. A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH
SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TO BE OUR AREA MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MAY
DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT, HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW ACTIVE IT WILL BE AS MOST OF THE LIFT SHOULD RESIDE
FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY, DEEPER MOISTURE AND
A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NEARING FROM THE WEST COULD RESULT IN
A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM LATER TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN
SOME WEDNESDAY, FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SLOW DURING
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME CONVECTION
WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
LIFT, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND ANY EARLIER CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT
SLOWS AND THEN STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG IT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDER, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ATTM.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE ARRIVES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. AS DOWNSTREAM WAA INCREASES AND THE
SURFACE HIGH /PENDING IT IS PRESENT/ MOVES OFFSHORE, A WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AS
OF NOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN MORE
MODEL VARIABILITY, WE BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CHC POPS FOR EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR EIGHT TAF SITES WILL FAVOR THE IFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING
AS LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR
REGION.

DRYING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR TO VFR
BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME. AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST, A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE WEST SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR, WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LATE. WESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
BECOMING WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS MAY END UP BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PASS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOWARD CANADA`S
MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THE WIND MAY BECOME VARIABLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEST FOR TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR TODAY.
SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THEM TO
DROP BELOW 5 FEET.

DUE TO TODAY`S WAVE HEIGHTS AND THE EXPECTED WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT,
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL
600 AM MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TUESDAY...AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT MAY
BUILD THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AGITATED TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND AT THE
DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO


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