Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 030435
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1235 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER VIRGINIA
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH
ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...STARTED TRIMMING THE THUNDER MENTION AS THE
INSTABILITY IS DECREASING WITH THE REMAINING THUNDER NOW NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THE FORCING WITH A
REMNANT MCV IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WE ARE EXPECTING RENEWED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. SOME TWEAKS WERE DONE TO THE
VERY NEAR TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FCST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WITH NELY WINDS TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL BE DRYING OUT SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FEATURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY
REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DONE AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS OF 0430Z. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AND IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE.

EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING, ONLY
VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DRAWING
IN MARINE AIR. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 AM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SO
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SELY WIND THIS EVENING WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE OVER NIGHT AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
THE DELMARVA SHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4 FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO



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