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000
FXUS61 KPHI 191354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...