134
FXUS61 KPHI 110755
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the region
through the weekend. Weak disturbances will move through the
area from time to time generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms with their passage, especially in the afternoon
and evening. A cold front will cross the region early next
week, with high pressure possibly becoming more dominant for a
time towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stationary boundary remains just south to southwest of the
area, but is rather weak and diffuse. This means we`ll feel a
bit more of an easterly flow across the region through the next
couple days, albeit weak. However, with preexisting moisture and
just a nudge of onshore flow, we`re getting the necessary bump
to get areas of fog early this morning, and this may occur again
late tonight as well. Jury is still out on need of a fog
advisory but will be watching conditions closely over the next
couple of hours.

Otherwise, the easterly flow should keep us just a bit more
stable today, resulting relatively modest convective coverage
despite the nearby boundary, and focusing the convection inland
as opposed to areas closer to the coast as occurred yesterday.
This idea of lower coverage is supported by the ever weakening
upper level support. After morning low clouds and fog break, we
should ultimate see more sun today than yesterday, and despite
the easterly flow, it will be enough to nudge inland areas up to
around 90. With dew points up around 70, heat indices will
reach the mid 90s.

Other than the aforementioned risk of low clouds and fog,
tonight will be humid but mostly dry. Lows near or just above 70
for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Onshore flow just north of the stalled front will continue
Saturday, resulting in a relatively similar day to what we`re
expecting today...low clouds and fog early breaking for some sun
and temps rising to near 90 inland, with spotty afternoon
convection most likely away from the coast. And Saturday night
looks similar to tonight overall...any early convection
dissipating with potential low clouds/fog overnight and lows
mostly near or slightly above 70.

Conditions get a bit more active Sunday as the next cold front
approaches from the northwest. With better upper level support
and a push of more humid and unstable air coming up from the
southwest, we`ll see a better risk of afternoon convection, with
a greater severe and flood risk. SPC has placed a marginal risk
of severe weather across our western zones for Sunday, which is
an upgrade from the general thunder outlooks we have for today
and Saturday. Otherwise, Sunday looks similar to Saturday in the
temperature/cloud cover/fog department, with potential early low
clouds/fog giving way to some sun before any storms fire, and
temps back up around 90 with heat indices into the mid-upper
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Front slides right into the region for Monday, with likely the
stormiest day of the forecast period on tap. Another busy day
looks possible with severe and flood concerns, but still a few
days to look harder at this. Highs likely end up just a smidge
cooler than Sunday thanks to greater cloud cover/earlier
development of storms.

Front tries to slide south of the region thru the middle of the
week, though a bit of uncertainty among the guidance here.
Overall, however, it should be a decrease in convective coverage
compared to Monday as a Canadian high tries to build in while
passing to the north. Air mass doesn`t change a whole lot
though, so still looking at highs near 90, heat indices into the
mid-upper 90s, and perhaps some isolated convection inland.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z...Variable conditions with areas of fog and low clouds
bringing VLIFR to some terminals. Light winds. Moderate
confidence overall but low confidence with individual details.

Today...Early morning conditions as low as VLIFR improving to VFR
with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Light
winds. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start but with sub-VFR possible later as low
clouds/fog attempt to redevelop. Light winds. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Overall, VFR conditions. However,
afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR
conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub- VFR
conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but
confidence low on timing and placement.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect. South to southeast winds
10-15 kt and seas 3-4 feet are expected through tonight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon
and evening.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
possible. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time,
especially at night.

Rip Currents...

For today, a southeast wind of around 10 MPH and breaking waves
of around 2-3 feet with a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7
seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore.
With waves of only 1-2 feet along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW
Risk for rip currents is in place.

For Saturday, an easterly wind around 10 mph but with breaking
waves of only 1-2 feet and a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7
seconds for all beaches. Thus, a LOW risk for rip currents is in
place.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Franklin/RCM
SHORT TERM...Guzzo/RCM
LONG TERM...Guzzo/RCM
AVIATION...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM