Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 281925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOL
FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A GORGEOUS NIGHT IN THE WORKS AS THE CUMULUS AROUND THE REGION
DISSIPATES AND GIVES WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL DIE OFF ONCE THE SUN
STARTS TO SET. LIGHT WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS MEANS WE WILL
RADIATIONALLY COOL VERY EFFECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS MIGHT ONLY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE AUGUST DAY FOR
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN A
RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS SOME
ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES, DESPITE
RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE SHORT WAVE
WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH LIFT MOVING
THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. WE
OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR
WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLATED
AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN COULD PLAY A ROLE.
THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE
JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL REMAINS
IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CLOSE
BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END UP STALLING
THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO LESS FLOW
DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ESPECIALLY
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST,
AFFECTING KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR BUT
SOME CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
DISSIPATING LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET
ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY
BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA


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