Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 161657
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1257 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of weak high pressure builds just to our south this
afternoon and then moves offshore tonight. A cold front passes
through on Sunday, followed by a reinforcing cold front on
Monday. Several upper level disturbances will pass through
during the mid-week period as surface high pressure builds to
the west. Low pressure approaches towards the end of the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM, just enough moisture beneath an inversion
combined with low enough convective temperatures resulted in a
decent amount of stratocumulus. This is eroding though from the
west as drier air gets involved. Made some mostly minor tweaks
to the hourly forecast elements to keep them current based on
the latest observations and trends. West-northwest winds mostly
10-15 mph will become southwesterly.

Tonight, fair weather continues for most areas as high pressure
moves away. Clouds will increase over the western/northern
areas overnight. These areas may have scattered showers arrive
around midnight and continue towards dawn. They are associated
with a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region. Lows
tonight will remain in the 40s for the area. Winds will be
southwest at 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front passes through the region on Sunday afternoon.
Some lingering showers are possible for the southern Poconos,
northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley, but QPF will be minimal.
Surface high pressure builds down into the Central and Southern
Plains as a deep upper trough pushes into the eastern third of
the United States. Another cold front passes through on Monday
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Shortwave
energy passing to the north may touch off some rain or snow
showers, but QPF will be minimal.

In terms of temperatures, highs on Sunday will generally range
from the upper 50s to low 60s. High temperatures then crash to
slightly below normal temperatures on Monday, generally in the
upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep upper trough will lie over the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic for the mid-week period as surface high pressure builds
over the Midwest. A tight west to northwest pressure gradient
over the area will allow for gusty winds on Tuesday, generally
ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Temperatures will be well below normal with highs generally in
the 40s.

The base of the trough begins to flatten out and move to the
northeast on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes. Highs rebound closer to normal and will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

High pressure builds through the region Thursday. Developing
low pressure may bring rain to the region by Friday along with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...VFR. West-northwest winds 8-12 knots becoming
west to southwest. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR, with clouds increasing overnight. There is a low
chance (20-30 percent) for a few showers for KRDG to KABE to
north of KTTN after 06z. Southwest winds diminishing to less
than 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...VFR ceilings should lift and thin some. A few early
morning showers possible mainly from KRDG to KABE to north of
KTTN. Southwest winds 5-10 knots early become west-northwest
and increase to 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday...A prolonged period of VFR
conditions, though a few rain or snow showers are possible for
KABE Monday afternoon. Any restrictions would be brief. W to NW
winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, mainly during the
daytime hours, during this period. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Fair weather is expected across the waters today and tonight.
High pressure will build in today and then move offshore
tonight. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today
and much of tonight. Later tonight, winds and seas will freshen
with some gusts in the 20/22kt range. We`ll hold on a SCA for
now with the gusts only marginal attm.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions on Sunday, and
then starting on Monday, a prolonged period of SCA conditions
due to W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas may
build to 5 feet by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While some showers may occur late tonight and early Sunday
morning across northeast PA and northwest NJ, a period of dry
and increasingly breezy conditions is on tap starting on Sunday
and continuing through Wednesday. The minimum relative humidity
values lower to generally 30 to 35 percent during peak heating
each day, with west to northwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts
30-35 mph. The strongest winds look to occur on Tuesday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Gorse/OHara
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
FIRE WEATHER...Gorse/MPS


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