Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO


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