Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 210357
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1157 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE INN THE CAROLINAS WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY, AND A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: OVERNIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED.
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND SEAL FROM MUCH ADDITIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER 08Z. A BIT MORE BREEZE THAN ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT (AS WAS ON WEDNESDAY OVER DE BAY) WITH THE NORTHWEST
WIND TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MORNING. NO FROST EXPECTED

THURSDAY...THE NAM TRENDED SEWD ON THIS 00Z CYCLE. NO CONCLUSIONS
YET ON THIS SHIFT REGARDING NORTHERN EXTEND OF THE DELMARVA
RAINSHIELD. WE DO ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY COOL DAY. EASTERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY WITH FLOW TURNING S OR SW ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTN AND REMAINING EASTERLY IN THE FAR SOUTH.

PER YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT: WE HAVE BROUGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 78 AND WE MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ABOUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH MAY FALL AS FAR NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THERE.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (EC WAS FLAGGING
THIS MUCH COOLER SCENARIO ON THE 00Z/19 CYCLE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
MUCH MILDER NCEP MOS FROM THAT 00Z/19 CYCLE). ACTUALLY, THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MAY BE IN OUR
NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FROM THE 330 PM WEDNESDAY FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW:

TO START THE LONG TERM, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BE EMERGING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
AND OUT TO SEA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW
PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE COAST, FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
DIFFERENCES ALSO EXIST WITH REGARDS TO MODELED QPF, WITH THE NAM
BEING A WETTER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF, AND ITS
TRACK ALSO BEING THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. NONETHELESS, OVERALL
TREND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE FOR PRECIP
TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, AS WE HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THE LONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
NJ COAST AND THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS OUT REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY; ALTHOUGH, WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FOR A TIME. WINDS THEN RELAX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME 30S AND PATCHY FROST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE POCONOS.

LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE SUN, AND NEAR AVERAGE MAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL STILL BE PLEASANT, TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE CREEPING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EASES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE THEN INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR
REGION MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES NORTH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY,
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS THEN EXPECTED
GOING INTO TUESDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. BUILDING INSTABILITY
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL YIELD MORE SCATTERED
SHWR/TSTORM POTENTIAL, AND WE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA,
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER NORTH AND ALONG THE
COAST. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND FOR NOW, WE INTRODUCED SOME VERY LOW POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR. AREAS OF CIGS AOA 20000 FT LOWER TO
NEAR 10000 FT AT 12Z. WIND NNW BECOMING NNE WITH GUSTS 10-15 KT
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD INCLUDING KPHL GROUP OF TAFS.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 1500Z. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED FOR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE AFTN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT THOSE LOCATIONS
WITH CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FEET AND VISIBILITY VALUES
STAYING ABOVE 5 MILES. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO HAVE A GREATER
IMPACT ON KMIV AND KACY THAN ON OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND MAY DEVELOP AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE,
KPHL AND KILG. THE WIND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE AT KMIV AND KACY OR IT
COULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME LINGERING RAIN/SHWRS MAY
MEAN SOME SUB-VFR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT MAINLY FROM
AROUND KMIV/KACY AND SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SAFE BOATING WEEK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A USCG SAFETY APP THAT SHOULD BE OF VALUE TO MARINERS
AND WAS JUST UNVEILED THIS WEEK:

HTTP://WWW.USCG.MIL/MOBILE.

THIS APP PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SAFE BOATING RESOURCES FOR MOBILE DEVICE
USERS. WHEN LOCATION ENABLED, USERS CAN RECEIVE THE LATEST WEATHER
REPORTS FROM THE CLOSEST NOAA BUOY AS WELL AS REPORT THE LOCATION
OF A HAZARD ON THE WATER. IT FEATURES AN EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE
BUTTON, WHICH CAN CALL THE CLOSEST CG COMMAND CENTER.

THE FORECAST:

NO MARINE HEADLINE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT
MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE ATLANTIC DE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
A MARGINAL SCA.

NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TEND NORTHEAST NORTHEAST-EAST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY THEN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...WHILE WE HAVE NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THERE
IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN SCA WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH,
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOME SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR
TSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE THE RISK FOR ENHANCED WILDFIRE
SPREAD AS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEARING 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH DRY FINE FUELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE
UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE
SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER
TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG  1158P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1158P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/KLINE 1158P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/KLINE 1158P
FIRE WEATHER...
RIP CURRENTS...


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