


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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170 FXUS61 KPHI 022312 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 712 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled cold front across the area today will begin to move south on Thursday, and then move offshore Thursday night. Dry high pressure will build into the region on Friday and remain in control through much of the weekend, providing seasonable temperatures and tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more humid, and unsettled conditions will return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The last of the showers have moved out with skies slowly clearing from west to east. Things continue to quiet down into tonight as the front slowly moves offshore and an area of high pressure nudges in from the southwest. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with temperatures dropping into the 60s. Cannot rule out some fog developing after midnight. Quiet through the morning tomorrow before things turn a bit more active in the afternoon. Another cold front is expected to dive in from the northwest, triggering the development of some showers and thunderstorms. Forcing will be strongest north of Philadelphia as the upper level trough slides by and we should destabilize quite nicely with mostly sunny skies to start the day. CAMs show around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE for the northern half of the region with 35- 45 kt of 0-6km shear. 12z CAMs have certainly trended a bit more robust with tomorrow`s convection, forming a line of thunderstorms to our northwest, and having it push through during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. SPC has added a SLGT (2/5) risk for severe weather for tomorrow from Philadelphia on north, which lines up with the strongest forcing, highest instability, and strongest shear. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. As thunderstorms progress through the CWA, they should weaken especially after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s though a few spots could touch 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A trough axis will shift southeastward across northern portions of the area Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will move off of the coast, taking any shower and storm chances with it. Behind the cold front, temperatures will cool into the mid 60s across most locations Thursday night, with mid-upper 50s likely in portions of the Poconos. High pressure will build into New England and portions of the Mid- Atlantic Friday and Saturday. This is expected to bring tranquil weather conditions. Partly to mostly clear skies can be expected through the period, with afternoon highs in the low 80s across the Poconos and mid 80s elsewhere, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It looks like Independence Day will have great weather overall! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure should remain in control across the area on Sunday. A general continuation of the benign pattern is expected, with a mixture of clouds and sun. Afternoon highs on Sunday are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s, with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid 60s to near 70. Monday and beyond, ridging will begin to settle over southwestern and south central portions of the US, allowing for a slight southward progression of the polar jet. It currently appears that a weak shortwave will pass through the region on Monday. A weak frontal passage should accompany this feature, and isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible. An isolated severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out given the anticipated strong instability. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additional rounds of isolated to scattered, mostly diurnally driven convection, will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday with a few weak disturbances passing through. Temperatures may be modulated a bit by increased cloud cover and storm coverage, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Mainly VFR with a few mainly high clouds at times. Could be a bit of patchy mist or light fog in southern NJ terminals. Light winds favoring a westerly component around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Thursday...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after 18z, esp at KRDG/KABE/KTTN, though only around a 30-50% chance. Westerly winds around 5-10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kts. A few storms could produce much stronger winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday night...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible before 3z, but only a 20-40% chance. Winds turning northwesterly 5-10 kts. A few storms could produce much stronger winds. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday through Sunday night...VFR. No significant weather expected. Monday...Mainly VFR. Brief reductions to sub-VFR are possible in isolated to scattered showers and storms, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through tomorrow. West/southwest winds 5- 10 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet. Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated. Winds are expected to remain below 25 kt and seas below 5 ft through the period. Rip Currents... For Thursday, Southwest winds around 10 mph with breaking wave heights of 1-3 feet. The residual SSE swell will lower to 1-2 feet and shorten to 6-8 seconds. As a result, have maintained a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For Friday, northwest wind in the morning will become southeasterly during the afternoon at 5-10 mph, with breaking wave heights of 1-3 feet. Southeasterly swell around 2 feet at 7-8 seconds in length. Will carry a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents for all New Jersey beaches outside of Monmouth county, where the wind will be more shore-parallel. Will carry a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for Monmouth County and Delaware beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cooper/DeSilva/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Hoeflich SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Cooper AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich/RCM MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich