Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






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