Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 011933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST. AS A RESULT, THE
SURFACE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST TO
THE NORTHEAST ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ON MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA.
THE WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FARTHER INLAND.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSES TRAVELING IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY ACT TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALSO, THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE
50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN OVERCAST WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT REACH PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND OUR
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY DAY`S END.

DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
WIDE SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND PERHAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
JERSEY SHORE. MEANWHILE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 80 IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND 4
TO 8 MPH. THE DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AS THE MARINE LAYER ERODES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN DETAILS LATER
THIS WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

NEXT SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST DAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PRIMARILY USED 12Z SUPERBLEND IN THIS TIME PERIOD.  BUT 12Z
SUPERBLEND STRUGGLED WITH THE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
00Z NATIONAL BLEND PROVIDED BETTER CONTINUITY FOR WINDS WITH OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES SO THAT WAS USED.
ALSO USED WPC GUIDANCE IN LIEU OF SUPERBLEND FOR DAY 7 TO REFLECT
LATEST FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT OUR TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALSO,
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND
4 TO 8 KNOTS.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF THE
IMPROVEMENT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE
KEPT THE TAFS PESSIMISTIC BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KACY, KMIV
AND KILG.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES.

WED...MOSTLY VFR.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF OUR COAST. WE ANTICIPATE THAT
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. WE WILL
ADJUST THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY, STARTING IT AT 800 PM THIS EVENING
AND ENDING IT AT 400 PM MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS WITH THE DIRECTION
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT
SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO



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