Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





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