Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME DAYTIME CU WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N
OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO OVERALL QUITE
PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER LOWS YESTERDAY 4/25/15 FOR KILG KACY KRDG KABE AND THAT
INFORMATION WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 4A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
FIRE WEATHER...4A
CLIMATE...4A


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