Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 280754
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain to the north through Friday. A weak
front will stall to our south and areas of low pressure will
develop along this front through the weekend and bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The sky was clear over our northern counties around 3:30 AM and
partly cloudy over the south. Debris clouds from convection over
Kentucky and vicinity early this morning should overspread our
region today. Also, we are anticipating the development of daytime
cumulus.

It appears as though our forecast area will remain precipitation
free for this morning. However, increasing instability in our
southern counties should lead to the development of scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms there.  The Storm Prediction
Center has placed northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New
Jersey under its marginal to slight risk designations for severe
weather due to the expected instability (around 1000 to 2000 J/kg
mixed layer CAPE) along with a moderately strong westerly mid level
flow.

A pool of deep atmospheric moisture was located over parts of North
Carolina, Virginia and the adjacent waters early this morning. It is
expected to drift northward today. Precipitable water values are
anticipated to increase around 2.2 to 2.4 inches in our southern
counties by this evening. There will be the potential for heavy
downpours.

Maximum temperatures should favor the lower 90s in our region.
Readings should not get out of the 80s in the elevated terrain of
the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, and along the immediate
coast. Heat index values are expected to remain several degrees
below the excessive heat criterion for our northern counties and
just below the criteria for the urban corridor and for our southern
counties.

The synoptic wind should be light allowing local influences to drive
today`s wind direction.  Speeds should be mostly less than 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches will overspread our
forecast area from the south for tonight. Conditions are expected to
remain unstable, especially across our southern counties. Also,
surface low pressure approaching from the west will result in the
development of a favorable low level wind profile for organized
convection tonight. The surface wind should begin to favor the east
to south quadrant late tonight, especially on the coastal plain,
while winds around 800 HPa will be from the southwest.

The very high precipitable water values should result in heavy
rainfall in any organized convection. As a result, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for southeastern Pennsylvania, central and
southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

The cloud cover and high humidity will keep temperatures from
falling below the 70s for tonight except in the Poconos and far
northern New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An area of low pres will ride alg the stalled front and bring rain
to the area on Fri. There is still some disagreement in the mdls
as to the extent of the rain and the locations of the heaviest,
with the GFS indicating most rain n and very little s and the
ECMWF having a more widespread event. For now, will just carry
high chc everywhere.

Mdls then clear things out Fri night into early Sat, so have
lowered pops and removed them for the first part of Sat.

Then there is more disagreement in the mdls into Sat as both mdls
develop precip again but the ECMWF is more widespread into early
Sun. However, by later Sun, both the GFS and ECMWF has another
good shot of precip over the area as another wave moves by alg the
front.

After Sun, the ECMWF is much drier through midweek, keeping most
of the period dry, while the GFS keeps Mon with a chc of precip
and diurnal stuff on Tue. The drier ECMWF soln is supported by the
CMC, so have leaned the fcst in that direction attm.

Temps look to be a bit cooler than we have had recently, with
temps not expected to hit 90 degrees in many areas thru the
extendd pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

There will be patchy MVFR visibility restrictions early this
morning. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected for today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop for this
afternoon, especially in areas to the west and south of
Philadelphia. We have not included their mention in any of our TAFs
due to the uncertainty regarding their coverage and timing at this
point.

Deteriorating conditions are anticipated for tonight as showers and
thunderstorms become more numerous in our region. The rain is
expected to become heavy at times.

A light and variable wind this morning may settle into the southwest
and south for this afternoon at less than 10 knots. A light
southerly flow this evening may begin to back toward the southeast
or east late tonight.

Outlook... Fri through Sun...Shra/tsra will lower cigs/vsbys at
times Otherwise VFR expected. Moderate Confidence.

Mon...Mainly VFR.  Moderate Confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The wind direction is forecast to favor the south for today with
speeds around 10 knots or less. The direction is expected to
back toward the southeast for tonight.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will be 2 feet or less and waves on
Delaware bay should be 1 foot or less.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for this afternoon
with numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated for tonight.

Outlook...
Fri through Mon...There is a chance of marginal sca conds Fri
night into erly Sat, but confidence is low. Otherwise, no marine
headlines are anticipated thru the pd.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
for today due to the relatively light wind and tranquil seas.

The probably risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on
Friday is also low.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     DEZ001>004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg
Marine...Iovino/Nierenberg



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