Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230556
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED
OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND IT IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY SLOT HAS MADE ITS WAY
INLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONG TERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND
FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...TODAY AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY
FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD
BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED
FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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