Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...





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