Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 182356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
756 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A weak front will dissipate across the area tonight. It will be
followed by weak high pressure which will settle across the area
Wednesday and remain through Thursday. Another front will affect the
area later Friday into Friday night. The front will not mve far from
the area and continue to bring unsettled conditions for the upcoming
weekend and into early next week.


High pressure located over the Atlantic will continue to draw
humidity into our region. We will remain on the western edge of the
high`s influence.

Majority of the convection has started to dissipate as we lose
our solar insolation and the weak surface front washes out. As
we head into the rest of the evening we should remain dry across
the region.

While some low clouds and patchy fog may develop toward morning, it
should not be as widespread as it was this morning being that we
will be more squarely in the tropical type air mass.

Minimum temperatures are anticipated to be mainly in the upper 60s
and the lower 70s with a light and variable wind.


A fair amount of sunshine is expected for Wednesday along with a
southwest wind around 5 to 10 MPH.

Conditions will remain very warm and humid. Maximum temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower 90s at most locations, with readings not
getting above the 80s in the elevated terrain and along the
immediate coast. Maximum heat index values are expected to be
generally in the upper 90s, which is below the Heat Advisory

The guidance is suggesting that an instability maximum may develop
over or near the Philadelphia metropolitan area on Wednesday
afternoon. Mixed layer CAPE values could rise into the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. As a result, we will keep a low or slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for that time period.


A pattern which favors above normal temperatures and occasional
showers is in the long term part of the forecast. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal Thursday through next Monday in many
areas. The heat will not be excessive however although heat indicies
may approach advisory levels at times. High temperatures will be
mostly in the low or mid 90s through Sunday and then a few degrees
less for next Monday. After that, temperatures should slip back to a
little below normal for Tuesday.

Precipitation will be typical for summer with mostly dry days and
chances for scattered showers and tstms. Thursday and Friday will
likely be the two days with the lowest chances for precipitation.
A front may bring some showers Friday night however. The front
will stall across the area, so the period Saturday through next
Monday will have almost daily chcs for showers and thunder. The
favored times are afternoon and evening.


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions are expected to continue into early
tonight. Patchy low clouds and fog may develop for late tonight
and early Wednesday morning but it should not be as widespread
or as long lasting as it was early today.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening

Light winds will continue overnight and into Wednesday mid-
morning. Winds will then pick up out of the southwest around 5
to 10 knots through Wednesday afternoon.

Wed night thru Fri...VFR conditions expected. A little early
morning haze or fog possible in rural areas.

Fri night thru Sunday...Mostly VFR, but sct showers and tstms
could bring lower cigs/vsbys at times. Favored times are
afternoon and early evening. Patchy pre-dawn fog psbl too.


High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to influence the
coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey for tonight and Wednesday.
The wind should favor the south and southwest at less than 15 knots.
Wave heights on our ocean waters will remain around 2 feet and waves
on Delaware Bay should be 2 feet or less.

Generally sub-SCA conditions expected through the period. Sct
showers and tstms are possible mostly between Fri night and
Sunday night. Locally higher winds and seas in tstms.


We will keep the moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents along the New Jersey coast into this evening. There is a
low risk at the Delaware beaches.

We are anticipating a low risk for both New Jersey and Delaware on
Wednesday. However, an underlying 10 to 12 second southeasterly
swell may reach the coast on Wednesday afternoon possibly resulting
in a developing moderate risk at that time.




Near Term...Iovino/Meola
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...O`Hara
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