Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 201952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST STATES TO NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY, AND A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING AS DRYING
TAKES PLACE AT THAT LEVEL. MEANWHILE, BANDS OF CIRRUS FROM THE WEST
WILL PASS OVERHEAD. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
READINGS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION
AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST UP NORTH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD COVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AND
THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE AREA OF
RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE CORE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT BEFORE PASS OVER THE VIRGINIAS
AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATE ON THURSDAY.

WE HAVE BROUGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 78 AND
WE MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND,
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY FALL AS FAR NORTH AS
PHILADELPHIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THERE.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 60
DEGREES IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY, THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MAY BE IN OUR NORTHERN
VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE EMERGING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE
COAST, FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES ALSO EXIST WITH REGARDS
TO MODELED QPF, WITH THE NAM BEING A WETTER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO
THE GFS AND ECMWF, AND ITS TRACK ALSO BEING THE MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION. NONETHELESS, OVERALL TREND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT WILL BE FOR PRECIP TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS WE HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THE
LONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES.

INTO FRIDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PROGRESSING FARTHER NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A RATHER
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. IN THIS FLOW, ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS OUT REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE, WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY; ALTHOUGH, WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A TIME. WINDS THEN RELAX LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 30S AND PATCHY FROST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS.

LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE SUN, AND NEAR AVERAGE MAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL STILL BE PLEASANT, TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE CREEPING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EASES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE THEN INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR
REGION MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS THIS
BOUNDARY PASSES NORTH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY,
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS THEN EXPECTED
GOING INTO TUESDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. BUILDING INSTABILITY
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL YIELD MORE SCATTERED
SHWR/TSTORM POTENTIAL, AND WE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA,
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER NORTH AND ALONG THE
COAST. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND FOR NOW, WE INTRODUCED SOME VERY LOW POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1400Z. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AROUND 10,000 FEET.

LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KRDG
AND KABE. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FEET AND VISIBILITY VALUES STAYING ABOUT
5 MILES. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON KMIV AND
KACY THAN ON OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
AT KMIV AND KACY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND MAY DEVELOP AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN,
KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. THE WIND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE AT KMIV AND KACY
OR IT COULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME LINGERING RAIN/SHWRS MAY
MEAN SOME SUB-VFR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT MAINLY FROM
AROUND KMIV/KACY AND SOUTH.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON
THURSDAY.

THE NORTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM
10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. A VARIABLE WIND IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ON OUR NORTHERN WATERS, AND THE NORTHEAST ON OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS ON DELAWARE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH, FIRST AS AN
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH,
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOME SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR
TSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE THE RISK FOR ENHANCED WILDFIRE
SPREAD AS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEARING 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH DRY FINE FUELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE
UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE
SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER
TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG


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