Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 011006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 12Z,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



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