Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 220738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
High pressure centered over the lower Ohio River Valley early
this morning will build to the east. The center of the high is
forecast to pass over our region on Tuesday before moving off the
coast and drifting out to sea. A cold front approaching from the
northwest is expected to arrive on Friday. Another area of high
pressure is anticipated to build from the Great Lakes to New
England and southeastern Canada over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front that brought the showers and thunderstorms to the
area Sunday has moved offshore, and a second will move across the
area through the day. This front will bring lower dewpoints across
the entire area. High temperatures will end up close to normal,
and with lower dewpoints it will feel much less humid than it has
recently. Winds will gust 20-25 mph through the day, so that may
actually make it feel a little cooler. Mostly clear conditions are
expected through the day with only some periodic high level
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A quiet and cool night ahead across the area tonight as high
pressure builds across the east coast. Light winds and clear skies
will allow for good radiational cooling to take place. With low
dewpoints, temperatures will be able to fall several degrees below
normal across the region.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure is forecast to be located over our region on
Tuesday. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky and low humidity
for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum temperatures should favor
the middle and upper 70s in the north and the lower and middle 80s
elsewhere. Overnight low are expected to be mainly in the middle
and upper 50s except in urban areas and along the coast where
minimum readings will likely be in the 60s. A clear sky and light
wind may allow for the development of late night river valley fog
across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
The center of the high is forecast to pass off the coast and
begin moving out to sea on Wednesday. Our region should then be in
the southerly return flow on the back side of the high late in the
week with a gradual increase in both heat and humidity
anticipated. Maximum temperatures should again be around 90
degrees in our central on southern counties on Friday.
No precipitation is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. The
model guidance continues to bring a cold front from the northwest
into our region on Friday. The guidance has been trending toward
lessening the precipitation with the front, so we will mention
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for that time
High pressure is expected to build down from the northwest and
north for the weekend and we will continue the dry forecast. Highs
on Saturday and Sunday should favor the 80s.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the TAF sites through
the period. The only exceptions would be if any fog develops
around or shortly before daybreak today or Tuesday. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies are expected today and tonight with only some
high level clouds.
Winds will increase out of the northwest today and gust around 20
knots through the day. The gusts will drop off around or just
before sunset, and eventually become light and variable/calm
overnight as high pressure builds across the area.
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in place across the waters as
winds are expected to gust around 25 knots behind the cold front
that is offshore now and the secondary frontal boundary moving
across the area later today. The gusts are expected to drop off
this evening as winds lighten while high pressure builds across
the area overnight.
Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.
There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
today due to the offshore flow.
The probable risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
on Tuesday is low.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-