Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH ON
DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY AT BUOY 65 THERE ARE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG,AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO NORTHERN NJ, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE
MUCH LOWER.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



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