Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 311601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



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