Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 252246
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will settle to our south tonight, allowing Canadian
high pressure to briefly move into our area on Sunday. Low pressure
moving from the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes will allow a
warm front to move northward through the region on Monday, followed
by a cold front Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build
into our area Wednesday through Friday. By next weekend, low
pressure moving into the Ohio Valley may send a warm front toward
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
For the 630 PM update, temperatures (and to some extent dew points)
were adjusted down quite a bit especially for the northern half of
the forecast area. This is in response to a wind shift to the
northeast in the wake of a southbound cold front. In addition, a sea
breeze has moved inland and accelerated the cooling. Temperatures
will continue to drop from north to south as the onshore flow
becomes more established. Some weak short wave energy in conjunction
with some lift near the front generated a few bands of showers.
These are tending to weaken some as they shift eastward. Some
additional showers should occur, however coverage may not be all
that much. PoPs were adjusted based on radar trends thus far.

Temperatures in the higher elevations of the Poconos and adjacent
northwest New Jersey may reach freezing for a couple of hours near
daybreak, which may result in a little light freezing rain/drizzle.
Since this appears to be more localized and the occurrence is less
certain, no advisory is being issued.

The winds above the lowest few thousand feet will be southwesterly
setting up a pattern for overrunning. Otherwise, there is no clear
lifting mechanism so have kept PoPs in the slight chance to chance
range tonight. The forecast soundings suggest that in the absent of
organized lift, some drizzle may occur overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For Sunday the forecast area will remain in the cool moist air north
of the front. A widespread overcast and winds off the ocean will
limit heating and temps will struggle to rise. Daytime max temps
will generally be about 20 deg colder than today. The overrunning
pattern will continue along with chances for some showers or
drizzle, again with the chances increasing from Delmarva northward
thru NJ and eastern PA. Any rain amounts should be limited to a few
hundredths of an inch. The 12z GFS is quite a bit more bullish on
QPF for the next 24 hours or so but it seems to be overdone.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday night with a
return to fair weather Wednesday and Thursday. Some uncertainty
remains with regard to freezing rain chances on Sunday night.
Then, considerable uncertainty with the next system Friday into
Saturday. Temperature-wise, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal
from Monday thru Wednesday, falling to around 5 degrees above
normal Thursday into Saturday.

In terms hydrology, given the above normal temperatures through the
long term, the snow pack north of I-78 will continue to melt. The
model consensus brings additional rainfall amounts of up to 1.5
inches across this area through Tuesday night with most of this
spread out between more substantial precip Sunday night into
Monday morning and Tuesday night. We expect rises on area
streams and rivers, but no flooding concerns at this time.

There remains the potential for spotty minor coastal flooding along
the ocean front for the high tides centered on Sunday evening and
again near sunrise on Monday. See: Tides/Coastal Flooding section.

As low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
from Sunday night into Monday, overrunning precip is likely. For the
most part, the models remain consistently too warm for freezing rain
Sunday night into Monday morning. In addition, boundary layer winds
are sufficiently strong enough to advect warm air northward through
the low-level column, despite somewhat of an in-situ cold air
damming signature. In addition, the lack of low-level dry air will
limit evaporational cooling. Given the proximity of the cold air, we
cannot rule out freezing rain, but the probability of it occurring
is low. Nevertheless, we maintain the wording from the previous
shift with regard to freezing rain potential in the HWO. Please note
that the most likely ice glaze map on our website only reflects
amounts tonight into early Sunday afternoon.

Expect showers to continue Monday afternoon into Wednesday,
with another round of more substantial precip likely centered on
Tuesday night, associated with a cold frontal passage. We do
not anticipate any p-type issues during this period. There
remains uncertainty with the timing of this front, particularly
given the time range, with the GFS being the most progressive.
For now, we expect a gradual return to fair weather on
Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.

There is considerable model uncertainty beyond day five, as the GFS
and ECMWF diverge in their handling of low pressure exiting the
Mississippi Valley. Initially a southern stream system, the
ECMWF phases it with a northern stream system, bringing a period
of precip to the entire area Friday night into Saturday. The
GFS keeps both streams separate, and takes a southern stream
system to our south, but close enough for precip across Delmarva
and southern NJ. The GFS does not have support from the UKMET
or Canadian, both of which are more similar to the ECMWF. For
now, the forecast brings in chance PoPs Friday into Saturday.
Also, given the orientation of the surface high, cold air
damming is possible. Thickness value indicate the cold air is
right on our door step, so p-type could be an issue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR and IFR as an onshore flow
continues to become more established. This will result in some
showers or drizzle at times. Confidence in the timing of the
lowering ceilings is less than average. Northeast winds around 10
knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible especially this
evening.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR conditions, mainly ceilings, through the day. Some
showers or drizzle at times. East-northeast winds around 10
knots.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night thru Monday night...Periods of MVFR/IFR possible
in low clouds and fog. Restrictions will be more widespread
Sunday and Monday night, while VFR develops on Monday from
around I-95 and points southeast.

Tuesday thru Thursday...MVFR possible Tuesday morning northwest
of I-95, otherwise, VFR thru thru the period.

There is the potential for wind gusts up to around 25 knots,
out of the south-southwest on Monday, then northwest on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Although sub-SCA conditions currently prevail over the forecast
waters, the SCA already in place for later tonight still looks good.
A cold front will cross the area north to south through this
evening, ushering in stronger NE winds. Some wind gust may reach
25-30 kt tonight and Sunday, but higher confidence is in seas
building to 5-6 feet over the SCA area.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory in effect for the NJ waters
for combined seas increasing to 5 or 6 feet and scattered gusts
25 kt.

Monday thru Wednesday...Seas may remain elevated Monday into
Tuesday, and the SCA may need to extended into this period.
Quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to winds and seas on
Wednesday, which may be near SCA thresholds.

Thursday...Sub-SCA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
In the wake of a backdoor frontal passage, a 36 hour period of
onshore flow is expected through Monday morning, with easterly
wind gusts up to 25 MPH at times. Astronomical tides are also
increasing, coincident with the New Moon this Monday, March 27.
The ESTOFS remains most aggressive out of the guidance suite,
with near minor flooding for the sunrise Monday high tide along
the DE and NJ oceanfront, and it has has outperformed the other
guidance recently. Both the NOS and ETSS are more conservative.
The wind will also be trending more parallel (southerly) to the
shore by sunrise Monday, so there remains uncertainty with
regard to water levels reaching the minor flooding threshold.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record high temperatures was set at Atlantic City (KACY
Airport) today when the temperature reached 81 degrees at 323 PM
this afternoon. The old record was 79 degrees from 1963.
Temperatures have since dropped precipitously once a sea breeze
front moved through (it was 60 degrees at 440 PM EDT, marking a
20 degrees drop in one hour).

March monthly average temp: While the negative departures will
diminish considerably the next few days...the month as a whole
for PHl is currently expected to end up about one half to 1
degree below normal.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ452-453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...AMC/Gorse
Short Term...AMC
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Franck
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...


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