Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 150721
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today. Weak high pressure
builds in Friday night and Saturday. Cold front approaches Saturday
night looking to cross through Sunday. Yet another cold front may
pass through Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heavier showers across eastern PA have dissipated early this
morning, leaving only a broken line of light showers across the
region. Expecting any precip to dwindle through mid-morning, keeping
the early part of the day mostly dry.
A low pressure system will track across New England on Friday,
dragging a cold front across the Mid Atlantic along with it,
crossing south and east through our region this afternoon. Much of
the morning is expected to remain dry ahead of the frontal passage
with the latest guidance continuing to limit the amount of rainfall
expected along this front due to a lack of strong upper level
support during the day. We will see some better forcing arrive late
afternoon into the early evening as the front makes its way across
extreme southern New Jersey and the southern Delmarva. A tenth to a
quarter inch is still possible in these areas. Would not completely
rule out a rumble of thunder from around Wilmington to Cape May
southward in the afternoon and early evening, but instability is
very limited. High temperatures will still be warm, in the 60s and
70s, but with the 70s limited to areas where the front hasn`t come
through in the afternoon, mainly south and east of the I-95 corridor.
As the front clears the region Friday evening, clearing skies and
cooler temperatures will arrive as high pressure builds in for the
overnight period. Expect temperatures to cool into the upper 30s and
low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A relatively quiet weekend is ahead. Weak high pressure slides by
just to the south and will be in control through Saturday.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure
moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold front approaching as an
area of low pressure skates by to the north. This front will not
have much moisture to work with, and only have a 15-20% chance of
showers north of I-78 for Sunday morning as the front moves through.
Not expecting much of an impact overall and for most of the region,
this will be a dry frontal passage.
The cold air will accompany the secondary front passing on Monday,
with temperatures on Sunday expected to be mild yet again. Looking
at another day in the upper 50s/low 60s with some mid 60s within the
Delmarva peninsula. Cooler, more seasonable air begins to filter in
on Sunday night with lows mainly in the 30s with upper 20s in the
Poconos and lower 40s in southern Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal
temperatures for most of next week with a few weak systems
potentially moving through.
A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday.
Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front
arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front
on Monday, mainly across the Poconos, northern Lehigh Valley, and
far northern New Jersey. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some
flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely
in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, a period of below
normal temperatures is expected Monday through Wednesday, with
highs for the most part in the 40s with southern areas getting
into the low 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s/low
30s. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day overall as 850 mb
temperatures are -10C, translating to surface temperatures in
the low to mid 40s.
Brisk northwest flow in the wake of the secondary front could result
in some breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the
guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day. The
upper level trough is slow to pull away with a few shortwaves likely
moving through within the northwest flow. This could result in some
rain/snow showers at times for the Poconos/northwest NJ, but nothing
impactful overall.
Temperatures return to more seasonal levels towards the end of next
week as more zonal flow takes over.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Early this morning (through 12Z)...Mainly VFR with south to
southwest winds generally around 5 knots or so. Isolated shower
could help bring brief period of gusty winds, around 15-20 kts. A
40kt low- level jet around 2kft this morning, so LLWS has been
included in TAFs at all sites through at least 12Z. Moderate
confidence overall.
Friday...Primarily VFR despite some showers rolling through, mainly
from PHL southward during the afternoon hours. Some MVFR possible
south of ILG and MIV into the Delmarva in the afternoon and would
not completely rule out a rumble of thunder down there. Ceilings
elsewhere at the TAF sites may drop to 050, and would not rule out
brief MVFR VSBY restrictions from showers as far north as PHL, but
more likely farther south. Winds in the morning SW to W 10-12 kt,
shifting to NW as a cold front passes through from NW to SE from
late morning into the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible early, mainly across
southern terminals where showers linger. Otherwise, VFR likely
overnight, though some patchy shallow fog in areas that saw precip
prior in the day cannot be ruled out. N/NW winds 5-10 kts. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday Night...VFR. West/northwest winds in the
morning will become south/southwesterly for the afternoon and
overnight hours. Wind speeds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of
showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/northwest winds
around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt
at night. Low confidence.
Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
No headlines expected through Friday night.
SW winds this morning around 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts
through the afternoon before a cold front pushes through, turning
winds to the NW around 10-15 kts by Friday night. Seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 kt by the late morning.
Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15
kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. North/northwest
winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...SCA conditions likely (70%) as
west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with gusts 25-30
kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some spotty minor flooding along the tidal Delaware and around
upper Delaware Bay is possible this morning. Astronomical tide
levels will lower through the weekend, ending any coastal flood
threat beyond this morning`s high tide.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich