Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 290800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
Low pressure, moving along a stalled frontal boundary, will continue
to move to the northeast through this morning. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will build into the region for Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front will
move into the area on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front has stalled over our region for the time
being, but expect it to slowly shift offshore through the morning
hours. A surface trough trailing behind the front should remain near
our region through the day today and could provide some focus for
surface convergence. However, given the dry air advection expected
through the day, do not expect this to result in any precip.
Given the post-frontal air mass, expect temperatures to be near or
slightly below yesterdays highs.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Depending on how far west the sea breeze reaches during the
afternoon hours, there may be a small chance of fog development on
the coastal plains. However, given the northwesterly flow, do not
expect the sea breeze to make much progress west, so think any fog
development is unlikely.
Otherwise, it should be a pleasant night as the surface high builds
closer. Clearing skies and lower dew points should allow locations
to radiate to near or just below normal.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday...High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
Expect conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across
the area. By Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm
air advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic.
This may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog will
also be possible overnight.
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.
Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
IFR and MVFR conditions due to fog and low clouds will continue
intermittently through 12Z. After 12Z, conditions should improve
quickly to VFR with only few to scattered mid level clouds through
the day. Winds should generally settle out of the northwest after
12Z, but remain near or below 10 KT.
After 18Z, a sea breeze is expected to develop. However, given the
synoptic northwesterly flow, we are not expecting this to reach very
far inland (staying E of KACY), as depicted by the RAP and GFS.
However, the NAM does depict the sea breeze reaching at least KACY.
VFR conditions should continue overnight tonight. There is a very
small chance for light fog to develop on the NJ coastal plains
(including KMIV and KACY). For now think that this is unlikely, but
the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther
west by this evening.
Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light westerly
winds becoming southerly towards the afternoon/evening.
Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.
Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.
Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
As the flow shifts back to westerly overnight tonight, a few gusts
to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters, but should stay below
Thursday through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.