Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 280108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FOR MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA, WHILE POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST FRIDAY MAY CROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE STACKED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LONGER NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE PHILADELPHIA AREA AND POINTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ALL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLIP OFF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY, INITIATING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. ANY PATCHY FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AFTER SUNRISE. HIGHS IN RANGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, YOU`LL
LIKE SUNDAY TOO, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE EDGING EAST AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY OVERNIGHT, AND MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE MILDER OVERALL, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S THROUGH MORE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. MONDAY OVERALL SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS; ALTHOUGH, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A MAINLY
CLOUDY, BUT PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS AROUND
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 27/12Z RUN, BUT OUR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WAS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 27/00Z AND THE
27/12Z ECMWF, AND THE 12Z RUN NOW MORE RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION.
PRIOR TO THIS THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION WITH
ITS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT HUGGED THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS ONLY DEVELOPS A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND TAKES IT OUT TO SEA, PRODUCING LITTLE IF
ANY EFFECT TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS WITH
THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD AND HOPE TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND OTHERS TO BUILD CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AS THERE
DOES LOOK TO BE A CONTINUED ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN AND THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT CLOSER, AT LEAST WITH REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MIDWEST STATES FRIDAY AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
OUR REGION. WE DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION
LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NEXT SATURDAY
THEN, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR AREA, AND WE
RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY
AT MIV AND RDG. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH NO IMPACT ON AVIATION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE
SUB-VFR VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A FEW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD AS FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL SUSTAIN A LIGHT WIND FIELD THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SEAS...ON
THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME DURING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NEARBY. THE TRACK
AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA






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