Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 232038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
438 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BLUSTRY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MORE LIKE MID
MARCH THAN MID APRIL...AS TEMPERATURES WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. RADAR SHOWING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NJ AND EASTERN PA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALL THE
RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW SURFACE/UPPER PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TO
KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ABATE BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR THE
COAST AND DELWARE BAY.

RE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BUT DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AOB FREEZING IN
WESTERN AREAS...PHILADELPHI METRO REGION WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
BUT HAVE OPTED TO ADDED WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALL OF BERKS COUNTY INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT. FOR AREA EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR...HAVE DROPPED FREEZE WATCH
FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF ANY FROST ADVISORY
IS WARRANTED. FOR NOW...THE COMBINATION TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S COUPLED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND SUSTAINED WINDS
OVERNIGHT SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FROST EXPECTED. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TEMPERTAURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE
MODLES SUGGEST ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION BY LATE SATURDAY...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY COOL
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN IS FOR MID WEEK BUT THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST ON THUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN-OVC NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER 05Z. ON FRIDAY...AFTER 12Z VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT BETWEEN 13-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ060>062-101>106.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-
     103-105.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SMZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.